• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제23권4호
• /
• pp.453-461
• /
• 1999

The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the structure and machinery compo-nents. In this study the practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function is shown with a $135,000m^3$ LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution taht determine the stress spectrum are dis-cussed. At the end some of uncertainties associated with fatigue life prediction are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors expressed in combination of probability density function and S-N data is proposed. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter and stress block. The conser-vative fatigue design can be achieved when using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divded into more stress blocks.

• Tribology and Lubricants
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.52-58
• /
• 1999

Nano-indentation and nano-scratch tests were peformed to assess the mechanical and tribological properties of the coating on a commercially available thin-film magnetic recording disk. Surface topography and roughness of the disk was studied using atomic force microscopy. The hardness and elastic modulus data show a peak at an indentation depth equivalent to the thickness of carbon overcoat, indicating strong influence of the coatin $g_strate interaction and the coating surface roughness on the measurements. The variations of surface roughness data were analysed statistically based on the normal probability distribution theories and Weibull cumulative probability theories.es.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제52권7호
• /
• pp.401-406
• /
• 2003

Electric power industries in several countries are currently undergoing major changes, mainly represented by the privatizations of the power plants and distribution systems. Reliable operations of the power plants directly contribute to the revenue increases of the generation companies in such competitive environments. Strategic optimizations should be performed between the levels of the reliabilities to be maintained and the various preventive maintenance costs, which require the accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities. However, accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities are often limited by the lack of accurate power plant failure data. A power plant is not supposed to be failed that often. And if it fails, its impact upon the power system stability is quite substantial in most cases, setting aside the significant revenue losses and lowered company images. Reliability assessment is also important for Independent System Operators(ISO) or Market Operators to properly assess the level of needed compensations for the installed capacity based on the availability of the generation plants. In this paper, we present a power plant reliability estimation technique that can be applied when the failure data is insufficient. Median rank and Weibull distribution are used to accommodate such insufficiency. The Median rank is utilized to derive the cumulative failure probability for each ordered failure. The Weibull distribution is used because of its flexibility of accommodating several different distribution types based on the shape parameter values. The proposed method is applied to small size failure data and its application potential is demonstrated.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
• /
• 제30권9호
• /
• pp.551-557
• /
• 2017

It is extremely important to improve methodologies for the lifetime assessment of porcelain insulators. While there has been a considerable amount of work regarding the phenomena of lifetime distributions, most of the studies assume that aging distributions follow the Weibull distribution. However, the true underlying distribution is unknown, giving rise to unrealistic inferences, such as parameter estimations. In this article, we review several distributions that are commonly used in reliability and survival analysis, such as the exponential, Weibull, log-normal, and gamma distributions. Some properties, including the characteristics of failure rates of these distributions, are presented. We use a Bayesian approach for model selection and parameter estimation procedures. A well-known measure, called the Bayes factor, is used to find the most plausible model among several contending models. The posterior mean can be used as a parameter estimate for unknown parameters, once a model with the highest posterior probability is selected. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate our methodologies.

• 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
• /
• 제37권1호
• /
• pp.21-30
• /
• 2016

Weibull distribution with two parameters, shape (k) and scale (s) parameters are used to model the fatigue failure analysis due to periodic vortex shedding of the synovial fluid in knee joints. In order to determine the later parameter, a suitable statistical model is required for velocity distribution of synovial fluid flow. Hence, wide applicability of Weibull distribution in life testing and reliability analysis can be applied to describe the probability distribution of synovial fluid flow velocity. In this work, comparisons of three most widely used methods for estimating Weibull parameters are carried out; i.e. the least square estimation method (LSEM), maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the method of moment (MOM), to study fatigue failure of bone joint due to periodic vortex shedding of synovial fluid. The performances of these methods are compared through the analysis of computer generated synovial fluidflow velocity distribution in the physiological range. Significant values for the (k) and (s) parameters are obtained by comparing these methods. The criterions such as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), maximum error between the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and the chi square tests are used for the comparison of the suitability of these methods. The results show that maximum likelihood method performs well for most of the cases studied and hence recommended.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제25권3호
• /
• pp.96-107
• /
• 1997

The recent stream to reliability prediction is that it is totally inclusive in depth to consider even the operating and environmental condition at the level of finished goods as well as component itselves. In this study, firstly we present the reliability prediction methods by entire failure rate model which failure rate at the system level is added to the failure rate model at the component level. Secondly we build up the improved bases of reliability demonstration through a, pp.ication of Kaplan-Meier, Cumulative hazard, Johnson's methods as non-parametric and Maximum Likelihood Estimator under exponential & Weibull distribution as parametric. And also present the methods of curve fitting to piecewise failure rate under Weibull distribution, PRST (Probability Ratio Sequential Test), curve fitting to S-shaped reliability growth curve, computer programs of each methods. Lastly we show the practical for determination of optimal burn-in time as a method of reliability enhancement, and also verify the practical usefulness of the above study through the a, pp.ication of failure and test data during 1 year.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.79-86
• /
• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

• 풍력에너지저널
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.37-43
• /
• 2023

In this study, synthetic time series wind data was generated numerically using a second-order Markov chain. One year of wind data in 2020 measured by the AWS on Wido Island was used to investigate the statistics for measured wind data. Both the transition probability matrix and the cumulative transition probability matrix for annual hourly mean wind speed were obtained through statistical analysis. Probability density distribution along the wind speed and autocorrelation according to time were compared with the first- and the second-order Markov chains with various lengths of time series wind data. Probability density distributions for measured wind data and synthetic wind data using the first- and the second-order Markov chains were also compared to each other. For the case of the second-order Markov chain, some improvement of the autocorrelation was verified. It turns out that the autocorrelation converges to zero according to increasing the wind speed when the data size is sufficiently large. The generation of artificial wind data is expected to be useful as input data for virtual digital twin wind turbines.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제35권2호
• /
• pp.144-153
• /
• 2003

The object of this paper is the probabilistic failure analysis on the cladding performance of WPF(Whole Pin Furnace) test fuel pins under transient conditions, and analysis of the KALIMER fuel pin using the preceding analysis. The cumulative damage estimation and Weibull probability estimation of WPF test are performed. The probabilistic method was adapted for these analyses to determine the effective thickness thinning due to eutectic penetration depth. In the results, it is difficult to assume that a brittle layer depth made by eutectic reaction is all of the thickness reduction due to cladding thinning. About 93% cladding thinning of the eutectic penetration depth is favorable as an effective thickness of cladding. And the unreliability of the KALIMER driver fuel pin under the same WPF test condition is lower than that of the WPF pin because of the higher plenum-fuel volume ratio and lower cladding inner radius vs. thickness ratio. KALIMER fuel pin developed from conceptual design has a more stable transient performance for a failure mechanism due to fission gas buildup than the WPF pin.

• 한국항공우주학회지
• /
• 제36권12호
• /
• pp.1186-1192
• /
• 2008

가스터빈 엔진 블레이드의 신뢰성을 해석하였다. 항복강도, 탄성계수, 엔진속도 및 기체온도를 서로 독립적인 확률변수로 가정하였다. 파손확률을 구하기 위하여 사용한 방법들 중에서 Advanced Mean Value Method가 가장 효율적임을 알 수 있었다. 동일한 평균과 표준편차를 갖는 정규, 대수정규 및 Weibull 분포로 확률변수 형상을 가정하였을 경우, 극한상태방정식의 누적분포함수는 확률변수 분포형상에 의하여 큰 영향을 받지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 확률변수의 표준편차에 대한 파손확률의 민감도는 기체온도의 경우에 가장 크다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 확률변수의 평균과 표준편차의 효과를 검토하였다. 기체온도의 평균과 엔진속도의 표준편차의 증가가 파손확률을 가장 크게 증가시킴을 알 수 있었다.