• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull Distribution Function

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A Experimental Estimation of Thermal Fatigue at Polyethylene Boat (폴리에틸렌 보트의 열피로 손상의 실험적 평가)

  • Cho, Seok Swoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.2559-2565
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    • 2013
  • Material of boat hull has been used mainly with FRP composite materials until now. FRP boat hull manufacturing began to be restricted after the 2000's under international regulation on ocean environment safety. Shipyard on a small scale has manufactured polyethylene canoe and kayak hulls. Polyethylene has the melting point lower than the existing hull materials. Thermal stress occurs on outer hull surface when the polyethylene boat hull is exposed to sunlight. If it happens everyday, boat hull undergoes fatigue damage due to thermal fatigue. Therefore, this study presents the statistical fatigue life estimation on the HDPE boat hull subject to repeated thermal stress under three point bending condition.

The Characteristics of the Repair Cost Distribution in Apartment Housing

  • Lee, KangHee;Chae, ChangU
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The repair would require to conserve and improve the building function and performance since built. Each household is responsible for maintaining the public facilities and paying the required cost. Therefore, it needs to get the tool or method to forecast the required cost in the future. Before the repair cost is provided, it needs to catch the repair cost distribution and provide the unit cost for the repair cycle. In this study, it aimed at providing the repair cost unit and analyzing the repair cost distribution in a roof proofing work, elevator work and building painting, which are divided into a fully work and partly change. Results of this study are shown that first, the average repair cost for roof proofing work is provided with $166.59{\times}10^3won/household$ and $1.59{\times}10^3won/m^2$ of a full change, $33.22{\times}10^3won/household$ and $0.33{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a partly work. In addition, elevator work is $557.45{\times}10^3won/household$ and $5.38{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a full change, $32.92{\times}10^3won/household$ and $0.56{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a partly repair. Painting has a $304.48{\times}10^3won/household$ and $2.94{\times}10^3won/m^2$. Second, the distribution pattern of repair unit cost has a weibull-typed distribution which has a long tail to the right.

Analysis of Confidence Interval of Design Wave Height Estimated Using a Finite Number of Data (한정된 자료로 추정한 설계파고의 신뢰구간 분석)

  • Jeong, Weon-Mu;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2013
  • It is estimated and analyzed that the design wave height and the confidence interval (hereafter CI) according to the return period using the fourteen-year wave data obtained at Pusan New Port. The functions used in the extreme value analysis are the Gumbel function, the Weibull function, and the Kernel function. The CI of the estimated wave heights was predicted using one of the Monte-Carlo simulation methods, the Bootstrap method. The analysis results of the estimated CI of the design wave height indicate that over 150 years of data is necessary in order to satisfy an approximately ${\pm}$10% CI. Also, estimating the number of practically possible data to be around 25~50, the allowable error was found to be approximately ${\pm}$16~22% for Type I PDF and ${\pm}$18~24% for Type III PDF. Whereas, the Kernel distribution method, a typical non-parametric method, shows that the CI of the method is below 40% in comparison with the CI of the other methods and the estimated design wave height is 1.2~1.6 m lower than that of the other methods.

Exploring Factors Related to Metastasis Free Survival in Breast Cancer Patients Using Bayesian Cure Models

  • Jafari-Koshki, Tohid;Mansourian, Marjan;Mokarian, Fariborz
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.22
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    • pp.9673-9678
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    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer is a fatal disease and the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women with an increasing pattern worldwide. The burden is mostly attributed to metastatic cancers that occur in one-third of patients and the treatments are palliative. It is of great interest to determine factors affecting time from cancer diagnosis to secondary metastasis. Materials and Methods: Cure rate models assume a Poisson distribution for the number of unobservable metastatic-component cells that are completely deleted from the non-metastasis patient body but some may remain and result in metastasis. Time to metastasis is defined as a function of the number of these cells and the time for each cell to develop a detectable sign of metastasis. Covariates are introduced to the model via the rate of metastatic-component cells. We used non-mixture cure rate models with Weibull and log-logistic distributions in a Bayesian setting to assess the relationship between metastasis free survival and covariates. Results: The median of metastasis free survival was 76.9 months. Various models showed that from covariates in the study, lymph node involvement ratio and being progesterone receptor positive were significant, with an adverse and a beneficial effect on metastasis free survival, respectively. The estimated fraction of patients cured from metastasis was almost 48%. The Weibull model had a slightly better performance than log-logistic. Conclusions: Cure rate models are popular in survival studies and outperform other models under certain conditions. We explored the prognostic factors of metastatic breast cancer from a different viewpoint. In this study, metastasis sites were analyzed all together. Conducting similar studies in a larger sample of cancer patients as well as evaluating the prognostic value of covariates in metastasis to each site separately are recommended.

Evaluation of Statistical Fatigue Life of Hybrid Composite Joints in Low-Floor Bus (저상버스용 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부의 통계적 피로수명평가)

  • Jung, Dal-Woo;Choi, Nak-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.1705-1713
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    • 2010
  • The reliable fatigue life for hybrid composite joint structures was estimated by a statistical method for evaluating fatigue life; the results of the fatigue test varied widely. Cyclic bending tests were performed on a cantilever beam with a hybrid composite joint, which was developed for the body of a low-floor bus. In order to estimate the fatigue life of the hybrid composite joint structure by comparing the data obtained during the fatigue tests, the most suitable probabilistic density function among the normal, lognormal, and Weibull distributions was selected. The probabilistic-stress-life (P-S-N) curves calculated by using the selected Weibull distribution was suggested for process of statistical fatigue life estimation and reliability design.

Estimation of Habitat Suitability Index of Fish Species in the Gapyeong stream (가평천 어류의 서식처적합도지수 산정)

  • Kong, Dongsoo;Son, Se-Hwan;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Piljae;Kwon, Yongju;Kim, Jungwoo;Kim, Ye Ji;Min, Jeong Ki;Kim, Ah Reum
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.626-639
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    • 2017
  • Based on an ecological monitoring in a Korean stream (Gapyeong), Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) of nine fish species was developed for three physical habitat factors : current velocity, water depth and substrate. The species were chosen based on their abundance and frequency in the fish community of the Gapyeong stream. The Weibull model was used as the probability density function to analyze the distribution and number of each fish species according to the three identified physical factors, which showed good results. This HSI equation has advantages because it statistically expresses habitat preferences of fish species simply and clearly. From that, we can quantitatively deduce the central tendency and variation of environmental factors for fish distribution. The selected fish species showed different preferences for each habitat factor respectively. Although there are some exceptions, the distribution and abundance of individual species of nektonic fish (Zacco koreanus, Zacco platypus, Microphysogobio longidorsalis and Pungtungia herzi) were positively skewed to deep water and fine substrate while riffle-benthic fish (Koreocobitis rotundicaudata and Coreoleuciscus splendidus) were normally distributed at the shallow and coarse substrate zone. It seems that the species showing the positively skewed distribution to the current, Z. koreanus, Z. platypus, M. longidorsalis and P. herzi have adapted themselves to the fast current and have expanded their niche.

Rapid response calculation of LNG cargo containment system under sloshing load using wavelet transformation

  • Kim, Yooil
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 2013
  • Reliable strength assessment of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargo containment system under the sloshing impact load is very difficult task due to the complexity of the physics involved in, both in terms of the hydrodynamics and structural mechanics. Out of all those complexities, the proper selection of the design sloshing load which is applied to the structural model of the LNG cargo containment system, is one of the most challenging one due to its inherent randomness as well as the statistical analysis which is tightly linked to the design sloshing load selection. In this study, the response based strength assessment procedure of LNG cargo containment system has been developed and proposed as an alternative design methodology. Sloshing pressure time history, measured from the model test, is decomposed into wavelet basis function targeting the minimization of the number of the basis function together with the maximization of the numerical efficiency. Then the response of the structure is obtained using the finite element method under each wavelet basis function of different scale. Finally, the response of the structure under entire sloshing impact time history is rapidly calculated by synthesizing the structural response under wavelet basis function. Through this analysis, more realistic response of the system under sloshing impact pressure can be obtained without missing the details of pressure time history such as rising pattern, oscillation due to air entrapment and decay pattern and so on. The strength assessment of the cargo containment system is then performed based on the statistical analysis of the stress peaks selected out of the obtained stress time history.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of Hawaiian Beet Webworm Spoladea recurvalis Fabricius (Lepidoptera: Pyraustinae) (흰띠명나방의 온도발육 모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Ku;Kim, Ju;Cheong, Seong-Soo;Kim, Yeon-Kook;Lee, Sang-Guei;Hwang, Chang-Yeon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2013
  • The Hawaiian beet webworm (Spoladea recurvalis) is one of the serious insect pests found on red beet (Beta vulgaris var. conditiva) in Korea. The study was conducted to investigate the development period of S. recurvalis at various constant temperatures, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5 and $35.0^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. The developmental period from egg to pre-adult was 51.0 days at $17.5^{\circ}C$ and 14.6 days at $35.0^{\circ}C$. The developmental period of S. recurvalis was decreased with increasing temperature. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature was fitted well by linear regression analysis ($R^2{\geq}0.87$). The lower developmental threshold and effective accumulative temperature of the total immature stage were $10.4^{\circ}C$ and 384.7 degree days, respectively. The nonlinear relationship between the temperature and developmental rate was well described by the Lactin model. The relationship between the cumulative frequency and normalized distributions of the developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the Weibull function with $R^2=0.63{\sim}0.87$.

Characteristics of Growth and Development of Empirical Stand Yield Model on Pinus densiflora in Central Korea (중부지방소나무의 생장특성 및 경험적 임분수확모델 개발)

  • Jeon, Ju Hyeon;Son, Yeong Mo;Kang, Jin Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to construct a empirical yield table for Pinus densiflora in real forest. Since existing normal yield tables have been derived by studying and analyzing communities in ideal environment for tree growth, those tables provide more over-estimated values than ones from real forest. Because of this, there are some difficulties to apply the tables to empirical forest except for normal forest. In this study, therefore, we estimated stand growth for real forest on P. densiflora as the representative species of conifers. We used 1,957 sample plot data of P. densiflora in central Korea from National Forest Inventory (NFI) system, and analyzed through estimation, recovery and prediction in order by using Weibull function as a diameter distribution model. Weilbull and Schumacher models were applied for estimating mean DBH and mean basel area and it was found that the site index for P. densiflora in central Korea ranges from 8 to 14 at reference age 30. According to site 12 in the stand yield table, the Mean Annual Increment (MAI) of P. densiflora was $4.42m^3/ha$ at 30 years of age. Compared to existing volume table constructed before, it is showed that MAI of this study were lower. According to the paired t-test that is conducted with the gap of volume values between normal forest and real forest by site index and age, the P-value was less than 0.001 which is recognized to have a statistically significant difference. Based on the results in this study, it is considered to be helpful for practical management and management policy on P. densiflora in central Korea.

Estimation on Physical Habitat Suitability of Benthic Macroinvertebrates in the Hwayang Stream (화양천 저서성 대형무척추동물의 물리적 서식처 적합도 산정)

  • Kim, Ye Ji;Kong, Dongsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.10-25
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to estimate the habitat suitability of 17 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa in the Hwayang stream. Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) of benthic macroinvertebrates from the Hwayang stream was developed based on three physical habitat factors which include current velocity, water depth, and the substrate. The Weibull model was used as a probability density function to analyze the distribution of individual abundance by physical factors. The number of species and the total individual abundance increased along with the increase in current velocity. By means of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), the relative importance of each factor was determined in the following order: current velocity, water depth, and the mean diameter. The results depicted that, the most influential factor in the growth of benthic macroinvertebrates in the Hwavang system was current velocity. After comparing the analyzed results from the Hwayang stream with the resukts from the Gapyeong stream, the integrated HSI was drawn. The results indicated that current velocity and substrate had similar distributions of HSI in the two streams. This was due to the addition of unmeasured data from previous surveys, or the fact that benthic macroinvertebrates adapted to deeper waters in the Hwayang Stream. Most taxa showed a clear preference for a fast current velocity, deep water depth and coarse substrate except Baetiella, Epeorus, (mayflies), and Hydropsyche (caddisfly).