• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.32 no.8
• /
• pp.543-553
• /
• 2023

Weather forecasts and advisories provided by the national organizations in Korea that are used to identify and prevent disaster associated damage are often ineffective in reducing disasters as they only focus on predicting weather events (World Meteorological Organization(WMO ), 2015). In particular, typhoons are not a single weather disaster, but a complex weather disaster that requires advance preparation and assessment, and the WMO has established guidelines for the impact forecasting and recommends typhoon impact forecasting. In this study, we introduced the Typhoon-Ready System, which is a system that produces pre-disaster prevention information(risk level) of typhoon-related disasters across Korea and in detail for each region in advance, to be used for reducing and preventingtyphoon-related damage in Korea.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.541-551
• /
• 2020

Based on the trend, there have been numerous researches analysing the ship collision risk. However, in this scope, the navigational conditions and external environment are ignored or incompletely considered in training or/and real situation. It has been identified as a significant limitation in the navigational collision risk assessment. Therefore, a novel algorithm of the ship navigational collision risk solving system has been proposed based on basic collision risk and vulnerabilities of marine accidents. The vulnerability can increase the possibility of marine collision accidents. The factors of vulnerabilities including bad weather, tidal currents, accidents prone area, traffic congestion, operator fatigue and fishing boat operating area are involved in the fuzzy reasoning engines to evaluate the navigational conditions and environment. Fuzzy logic is employed to reason basic collision risk using Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time of Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) and the degree of vulnerability in the specific coastal waterways. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to obtain the integration of vulnerabilities. In this paper, vulnerability factors have been proposed to improve the collision risk assessment especially for non-SOLAS ships such as coastal operating ships and fishing vessels in practice. Simulation is implemented to validate the practicability of the designed navigational collision risk solving system.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.62 no.6
• /
• pp.131-142
• /
• 2020

The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.243-250
• /
• 2020

Systematic farming can be planned and managed if long-term agricultural weather information of the plantation is available. Because the greatest risk factor for crop cultivation is the weather. In this study, a method for long-term predicting of agricultural weather using the GloSea5 and machine learning is presented for the cultivation of Chinese cabbage. The GloSea5 is a long-term weather forecast that is available up to 240 days. The deep neural networks and the spatial randomforest were considered as the method of machine learning. The longterm prediction performance of the deep neural networks was slightly better than the spatial randomforest in the sense of root mean squared error and mean absolute error. However, the spatial randomforest has the advantage of predicting temperatures with a global model, which reduces the computation time.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.137-149
• /
• 2005

This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.83-88
• /
• 2011

Annually, many parts of the Korea have been damaged from the localized heavy rain and/or typhoons which peak between June and September, which result in extensive financial and human loss. Especially, because the most area of Gangwon province is composed of the steep slope mountains, the damages by the debris flow or land-sliding are more frequent and the frequency has been increased. To analyze the characteristics and causes of these debris flow disasters, lots of study are recently being conducted through database of weather, hydrologic, soil etc using a GIS or remote sensing. In this study, we applied GIS method to analyze the risk of the debris flow area. With the statistical analysis and infinite slope stability model(SINMAP), the debris flow risk level of the mountain slope was generated. As a result, the GIS statistical analysis showed high correlation that former model of SINMAP in determining the debris flow risk area.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2010.02a
• /
• pp.16-24
• /
• 2010

This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
• /
• 2018.06a
• /
• pp.133-133
• /
• 2018

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.242-256
• /
• 2017

In this paper, dispersion scenarios concerning various meteorological conditions and real urban structures were made to estimate the impacts of hazardous substance leakage accidents and to reduce damages. Based on the scenario of the hazardous substance dispersion, the characteristics of the risk in the pedestrian environment were analyzed in Gangnam, Seoul. The scenarios are composed of 48 cases according to the meteorological conditions of wind direction and wind speed. In order to analyze the dispersion characteristics of the hazardous substances, simulations were conducted using a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model with hydrogen fluoride releases. The validation for the simulated wind was conducted at a specific period, and all the calculated verification indices were within the valid range. As a result of simulated dispersion field at pedestrian level, it was found that the dispersion pattern was influenced by the flow, which was affected by the artificial obstacles. Also, in the case of the weakest wind speed of the inflow, the dispersion of the hazardous substance appeared in the direction of the windward side at the pedestrian level due to the reverse flow occurred at lower layers. Through this study, it can be seen that the artificial structures forming the city have a major impact on the flow formed in urban areas. The proposed approach can be used to simulate the dispersion of the hazardous substances and to assess the risk to pedestrians in the industrial complexes dealing with actual hazardous substances in the future.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.47-53
• /
• 2003

Objectives : I used a case-crossover design to investigate the association between air pollution, and hospital admissions for asthmatic children under the age of 15 years in Seoul, Korea Methods : I estimated the changes in the levels of hospitalization risk from theinterquartile (IQR) increase in each pollutant concentrations, using conditional logistic regression analyses, with controls for weather information. Results : Using bidirectional control sampling, the results from a conditional logistic regression model, with controls for weather conditions, showed the estimated relative risk of hospitalization for asthma among children to be 1.04 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.08) for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10m (IQR=40.4ug/m3); 1.05 (95% CI, 1.00- 1.09) for nitrogen dioxide (IQR=14.6ppb): 1.02 (95% CI,0.97-1.06) for sulfur dioxide (IQR=4.4ppb): 1.03 (95% CI, 0.99-1.08) for ozone (IQR=21.7ppb): and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.99-1.08) for carbon monoxide f10R=1.0ppm). Conclusions : This empirical analysis indicates the bidirectional control sampling methods, by design, would successfully control the confounding factors due to the long-term time trends of air pollution. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as asthmatic children.