• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.162-169
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• 2016

기준기상위험이란 한 지역의 평년기후조건이 작물재배에 미칠 수 있는 '농업기상학적 피해가능성'으로서, 동일 작물 재배 시 지역에 따른 재해위험을 비교하는 기준이 된다. 지구온난화로 인하여 겨울 온도는 상승할 것으로 예상되지만, 기상이변의 빈도 또한 늘어날 것으로 전망되기 때문에 미래 기후조건에서 과수의 동해, 상해 등 저온에 의한 재해위험이 주목 받고 있다. 그러나 기후의 변화는 과수 생물계절도 변화시키므로 기상조건에 근거한 단순한 재해위험 전망은 기후변화적응의 실용측면에서 별 도움이 되지 못한다. 본 연구에서는 전국 주요 지역의 과거 및 기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 배, 복숭아, 사과의 생물계절을 예측하고 생육단계별 기온과의 상호작용에 근거하여 저온 유래 기준기상위험을 계산함으로써 미래의 재해가능성을 전망하였다. 휴면해제일은 미래로 갈수록 늦어질 것으로 전망되었으며, 발아일과 개화일의 경우 빨라질 것으로 예상되었다. 대구, 전주, 목포의 경우 휴면해제일의 지연 정도가 미래로 갈수록 커졌으며 발아일과 개화일의 경우 서울, 인천 지역이 다른 지역에 비해 늦게 나타났다. 서울과 인천, 대구와 전주, 부산과 목포가 서로 비슷한 양상을 나타내었다. 휴면기 동안에는 전 지역이 동해에 안전하였으나 휴면해제-발아기 동안에는 전 지역이 동해에 취약하였고, 발아기-개화기의 위험은 미래로 갈수록 대체로 낮아졌지만 지역에 따라 위험이 커지는 곳도 있었다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제38권6_3호
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• pp.1847-1859
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• 2022

북한에서 발생한 산불은 비무장지대 등으로 남하하는 경우 우리나라에 직·간접적인 영향을 줄 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 정보 접근불능 지역인 북한의 산불위험정보를 획득하기 위하여 Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) 기상자료 기반의 지역 최적화된 산불위험지수 Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)를 산출하고, 2022년 4월 북한 고성군과 철원군의 산불 사례에 적용하였다. 그 결과 발화일 당시 FFDI가 각각 위험등급 Extreme과 Severe 구간에 해당하여 적합성을 확인하였다. 또한 산불 발생 전후의 위험도지도와 토양수분지도를 정성적으로 비교한 결과 상호 관계성을 파악하였으며, 향후 토양수분, 표준화강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI), 식생수분지수(Normalized Difference Water Index, NDWI) 등을 결합하는 방식으로 산불발생위험지수의 개선이 필요하다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제29권7호
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• pp.641-646
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• 2005

In cargo-working, it unavoidably happens that the quay crane slip along the rail and the container move from side to side. Especially, they involve a lot of risk in bad weather. The rail clamp is a mooring device to prevent that the quay crane slips along the rail due to bad weather or the wind blast while the quay crane do the cargo-working And it will play a greater role in port container terminal integration and automation To design the wedge type rail clamp, it is very important to determine the wedge angle. In this study, we expect that the design wind speed of the quay crane will change over 16m/s. Assuming that the design wind speed is 40m/s, we determined the proper wedge angle of the wedge type rail clamp for the 50ton class quay crane.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.71-79
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• 2008

Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2019

Wheat blast occurred in Bangladesh for the first time in Asia in 2016. It is caused by a fungal pathogen, Magnaporthe oryzae Triticum (MoT) pathotype. In this review, we focused on the current status of the wheat blast in regard to host, pathogen, and environment. Despite the many efforts to control the disease, it expanded to neighboring regions including India, the world's second largest wheat producer. However, the disease occurrence has definitely decreased in quantity, because of many farmers chose to grow alternate crops according to the government's directions. Bangladesh government planned to introduce blast resistant cultivars but knowledges about genetics of resistance is limited. The genome analyses of the pathogen population revealed that the isolates caused wheat blast in Bangladesh are genetically close to a South American lineage of Magnaporthe oryzae. Understanding the genomes of virulent strains would be important to find target resistance genes for wheat breeding. Although the drier winter weather in Bangladesh was not favorable for development of wheat blast before, recent global warming and climate change are posing an increasing risk of disease development. Bangladesh outbreak in 2016 was likely to be facilitated by an extraordinary warm and humid weather in the affected districts before the harvest season. Coordinated international collaboration and steady financial supports are needed to mitigate the fearsome wheat blast in South Asia before it becomes a catastrophe.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.147-153
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• 2017

The mortality rate in industrial accidents in South Korea was 11 per 100,000 workers in 2015. It's five times higher than the OECD average. Economic losses due to industrial accidents continue to grow, reaching 19 trillion won much more than natural disaster losses equivalent to 1.1 trillion won. It requires fundamental changes according to industrial safety management. In this study, We classified the risk of accidents in industrial complex of Ulju-gun using spatial analytics and data mining. We collected 119 data on accident data, factory characteristics data, company information such as sales amount, capital stock, building information, weather information, official land price, etc. Through the pre-processing and data convergence process, the analysis dataset was constructed. Then we conducted geographically weighted regression with spatial factors affecting fire incidents and calculated the risk of fire accidents with analytical model for combining Boosting and CART (Classification and Regression Tree). We drew the main factors that affect the fire accident. The drawn main factors are deterioration of buildings, capital stock, employee number, officially assessed land price and height of building. Finally the predicted accident rates were divided into four class (risk category-alert, hazard, caution, and attention) with Jenks Natural Breaks Classification. It is divided by seeking to minimize each class's average deviation from the class mean, while maximizing each class's deviation from the means of the other groups. As the analysis results were also visualized on maps, the danger zone can be intuitively checked. It is judged to be available in different policy decisions for different types, such as those used by different types of risk ratings.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.519-526
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• 2019

Objective: We determined the risk factors limiting first service conception (FSC) rate in dairy cows and their economic impact. Methods: Data were collected from 790 lactations regarding cow parity, peri- and postpartum disorders, body condition score (BCS), reproductive performance, and expenses associated with reproductive management (treatment, culling, and others). Initially, we identified the risk factors limiting FSC rate in dairy cows. Various biological and environmental factors, such as herd, cow parity, BCS at 1 month postpartum and first artificial insemination (AI), resumption of cyclicity within 1 month of calving, year, AI season, insemination at detected estrus or timed AI, peri- and postpartum disorders, and calving to first AI interval, were evaluated. Next, we evaluated the economic impact of the success or failure of FSC by comparing the expense associated with reproductive management until conception between cows that did or did not conceive at their first service. Results: Cows with BCS <3.0 had a lower probability of conceiving at first insemination (odds ratio [OR] = 0.64, p<0.05) than cows with $BCS{\geq}3.0$. Cows inseminated during summer were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.44, p<0.001) than cows inseminated during spring. Cows with peri- or postpartum disorders were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.55, p<0.001) than cows without disorders. Survival curves generated using MedCalc showed an 81 day extension in the mean interval between calving and conception in cows that failed to conceive over those that did conceive at first insemination. Cows failing conceive required additional expenditure on reproductive treatment ($55.40) and other management ($567.00) than cows that conceived at first insemination. Conclusion: Lower BCS, hot weather at first insemination, and peri- and postpartum disorders are risk factors limiting FSC, which result in an economic loss of $622.40 per dairy cow.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.797-807
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• 2023

본 연구의 목적은 기후변화로 인한 태풍 변화에 대해 알아보고, 이로 인한 주거시설의 피해위험을 정량화하는 것이다. 전 세계적으로 지구온난화로 인한 기후이상과 악기상이 급증하고 있으며, 이로 인한 피해가 급증하고 있다. 특히, 많은 국가에서는 태풍의 패턴 변화로 인해 극심한 피해를 경험하고 있다. 그러나 기후변화에 따른 태풍의 변화와 변화한 위험으로 인한 건물 피해에 대한 실증적 정량화 연구는 부족하다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 태풍의 변화를 알아보기 위해 우리나라에 영향을 미친 태풍의 빈도와 강도를 분석해 보고, 주거시설의 한국형 태풍 취약도 함수를 활용하여 태풍의 위험변화를 정량화하였다. 본 연구를 통해 민간에서는 기후변화로 인한 태풍 위험의 증가에 따른 다양한 태풍 피해 시나리오 도출 및 비즈니스 모델 도출이 가능하며, 정부에서는 다양한 태풍 대비 위험 관리 전략을 수립할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.65-73
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• 2018

PURPOSES : In this study, the propriety of expansion joint spacing of airport concrete pavement was examined by using weather and material characteristics. METHODS : A finite element model for simulating airport concrete pavement was developed and blowup occurrence due to temperature increase was analyzed. The critical temperature causing the expansion of concrete slab and blow up at the expansion joint was calculated according to the initial vertical displacement at the joint. The amount of expansion that can occur in the concrete slab for 20 years of design life was calculated by summing the expansion and contraction by temperature, alkali-silica reaction, and drying shrinkage. The effective expansion of pavement section between adjacent expansion joints was calculated by subtracting the effective width of expansion joint from the summation of the expansion of the pavement section. The temperature change causing the effective expansion of pavement section was also calculated. The effective expansion equivalent temperature change was compared to the critical temperature, which causes the blowup, according to expansion joint spacing to verify the propriety of expansion joint applied to the airport concrete pavement. RESULTS : When an initial vertical displacement of the expansion joint was 3mm or less, the blowup never occurred for 300m of joint spacing which is used in Korean airports currently. But, there was a risk of blow-up when an initial vertical displacement of the expansion joint was 5mm or more due to the weather or material characteristics. CONCLUSIONS : It was confirmed that the intial vertical displacement at the expansion joint could be managed below 3mm from the previous research results. Accordingly it was concluded that the 300m of current expansion joint spacing of Korean airports could be used without blowup by controling the alkali-silica reaction below its allowable limit.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

There is a high confidence based on scientific evidence that climate is changing over time. Now climate change is considered as one of the challenges facing the construction industry. As no project is risk free and climate change has a strong impact on the different phases of the construction project lifecycle. This research aimed at providing a platform of knowledge for the construction management practitioners about the impacts of climate change on the construction projects lifecycle, identify the most dangerous climate change factors on the construction project lifecycle, and identify the most affected phase by climate change factors through the construction projects lifecycle. The study depended on the opinions of civil engineers who have worked in the construction projects field among the reality of Gaza Strip. Questionnaire tool was adopted as the main research methodology in order to achieve the desired objectives. The questionnaire included 127 factors in order to obtain responses from 88 construction practitioners out of 98 representing 89.79% response rate about the influence of climate change on the generic lifecycle of construction projects. The results deduced that the most significant influence on the construction project lifecycle was related to the extreme weather events, rainfall change, and temperature change respectively. There was a general agreement between the respondents that the most affected phase by temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events is the execution phase. The results also asserted with a high responses scale on the need to alternative procedures and clear strategies in order to face the climate change within construction industry.