• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weather generator model

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Multi-Site Stochastic Weather Generator for Daily Rainfall in Korea (시공간구조를 가지는 확률적 강우 모형)

  • Kwak, Minjung;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.475-485
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    • 2014
  • A stochastic weather generator based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach is a commonly used tools to simulate a time series of daily weather. In this paper, we propose a multi-site weather generator with applications to historical data in South Korea. The proposed method extends the approach of Kim et al. (2012) by considering spatial dependence in the model. To reduce this phenomenon, we also incorporate a time series of seasonal mean precipitations of South Korea in the GLM weather generator as a covariate. Spatial dependence was incorporated into the model through a latent Gaussian process. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data provided by 62 stations in Korea from 1973{2011.

Stochastic precipitation modeling based on Korean historical data

  • Kim, Yongku;Kim, Hyeonjeong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1309-1317
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    • 2012
  • Stochastic weather generators are commonly used to simulate time series of daily weather, especially precipitation amount. Recently, a generalized linear model (GLM) has been proposed as a convenient approach to fitting these weather generators. In this paper, a stochastic weather generator is considered to model the time series of daily precipitation at Seoul in South Korea. As a covariate, global temperature is introduced to relate long-term temporal scale predictor to short-term temporal predictands. One of the limitations of stochastic weather generators is a marked tendency to underestimate the observed interannual variance of monthly, seasonal, or annual total precipitation. To reduce this phenomenon, we incorporate time series of seasonal total precipitation in the GLM weather generator as covariates. It is veri ed that the addition of these covariates does not distort the performance of the weather generator in other respects.

A Modeling of Daily Temperature in Seoul using GLM Weather Generator (GLM 날씨 발생기를 이용한 서울지역 일일 기온 모형)

  • Kim, Hyeonjeong;Do, Hae Young;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2013
  • Stochastic weather generator is a commonly used tool to simulate daily weather time series. Recently, a generalized linear model(GLM) has been proposed as a convenient approach to tting these weather generators. In the present paper, a stochastic weather generator is considered to model the time series of daily temperatures for Seoul South Korea. As a covariate, precipitation occurrence is introduced to a relate short-term predictor to short-term predictands. One of the limitations of stochastic weather generators is a marked tendency to underestimate the observed interannual variance of monthly, seasonal, or annual total precipitation. To reduce this phenomenon, we incorporate a time series of seasonal mean temperatures in the GLM weather generator as a covariate.

Stochastic Daily Weather Generations for Ungaged Stations (기상자료 미계측 지역의 추계학적 기상발생모형)

  • 강문성;박승우;진영민
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 1998
  • A stochastic weather generator which simulate daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily temperature, relative humidity was developed. The model parameters were estimated using stochastic characteristics analysis of historical data of 71 weather stations. Spatial variations of the parameters for the country were also analyzed. Model parameters of ungauged Sites were determined from parameters of adjacent weather stations using inverse distance method. The model was verified on Suwon and Ulsan weather stations and showed good agreement between simulated and observed data.

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Mechatronic V8 Engine Start Capabilities of an Automotive Starter/Generator System at the Super Cold Weather

  • Jang, Bong-Choon
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.942-949
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    • 2002
  • The use of a combined starter/generator integrated into the drive train of an automobile offers several possibilities for improvement of fuel economy The use of such a starter/generator system is made feasible by a switch from a 14 volts electrical system to a 42 volts system, however, the sizing of the components is not a trivial problem. This study combines a dynamic electromechanical model of the starter, battery and power electronics with the nonlinear mechanics of the piston/crankshaft system and a thermofluid model of the compression and expansion processes to investigate the cold start problem. The example involves the start of an eight cylinder engine at -25 degrees Celsius. This paper shows how the mechatronic V8 engine of an automotive starter/generator system for the startability works well.

Development of wind power generator system model using PSCAD/EMTDC (PSCAD/EMTDC를 이용한 풍력발전 시스템 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Ju;Park, Dae-Jin;Ali, Mohd Hasan;Park, Min-Won;Yu, In-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.2000-2001
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    • 2007
  • Wind power generation system based on the PSCAD/EMTD is proposed in this paper for the simulations under the real weather conditions. Real field data of weather condition is interfaced to PSCAD/EMTDC using Fortran program interfaced method. And a new turbine component is developed using characteristic equation of a wind turbine and pitch angle control algorism. The generator output and current supplied into utility can be obtained by the transient analysis using PSCAD/EMTDC.

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Construction of Basin Scale Climate Change Scenarios by the Transfer Function and Stochastic Weather Generation Models (전이함수모형과 일기 발생모형을 이용한 유역규모 기후변화시나리오의 작성)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Seoh, Byung-Ha;Kim, Nam-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.3 s.134
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    • pp.345-363
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    • 2003
  • From the General Circulation Models(GCMs), it is known that the increases of concentrations of greenhouse gases will have significant implications for climate change in global and regional scales. The GCM has an uncertainty in analyzing the meteorologic processes at individual sites and so the 'downscaling' techniques are used to bridge the spatial and temporal resolution gaps between what, at present, climate modellers can provide and what impact assessors require. This paper describes a method for assessing local climate change impacts using a robust statistical downscaling technique. The method facilitates the rapid development of multiple, low-cost, single-site scenarios of daily surface weather variables under current and future regional climate forcing. The construction of climate change scenarios based on spatial regression(transfer function) downscaling and on the use of a local stochastic weather generator is described. Regression downscaling translates the GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change to site-specific values and the values were then used to perturb the parameters of the stochastic weather generator in order to simulate site-specific daily weather values. In this study, the global climate change scenarios are constructed using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments.

Optimization of Residential Photovoltaic-Fuel Cell Hybrid System Using HOMER(R) (HOMER를 이용한 가정용 태양광-연료전지 하이브리드시스템의 운전 최적화)

  • Park, Se-Joon;Li, Ying;Choi, Young-Sung;Lee, Kyung-Sup
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.129-133
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    • 2010
  • A hybrid system which is combined several complementary new and renewable power sources, such as photovoltaic, fuel-cell, and wind generator, etc., has been presented in various approaches. For instance, a photovoltaic cannot always generate stable output power with ever-changing weather condition, so it might be co-generated with a wind generator, diesel generator, and some other sources. In this paper, a residential PV-FC hybrid system is suggested as a distribution power source, and its operation is optimized by HOMER$^{(R)}$. As a result, it is the most economic that 5[kW] PV, 1[kW] FC, 4 batteries, 2[kW] electrolyzer, 0.5[kg] $H_2$ tank, 3[kW] converter are applied to the hybrid system.

Estimation of Future Reference Crop Evapotranspiration using Artificial Neural Networks (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 장래 잠재증발산량 산정)

  • Lee, Eun-Jeong;Kang, Moon-Seong;Park, Jeong-An;Choi, Jin-Young;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2010
  • Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the basic components of the hydrologic cycle and is essential for estimating irrigation water requirements. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) models for reference crop evapotranspiration ($ET_0$) estimation were developed on a monthly basis (May~October). The models were trained and tested for Suwon, Korea. Four climate factors, daily maximum temperature ($T_{max}$), daily minimum temperature ($T_{min}$), rainfall (R), and solar radiation (S) were used as the input parameters of the models. The target values of the models were calculated using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation. Future climate data were generated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator), stochastic weather generator, based on HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A1B scenario. The evapotranspirations were 549.7 mm/yr in baseline period (1973-2008), 558.1 mm/yr in 2011-2030, 593.0 mm/yr in 2046-2065, and 641.1 mm/yr in 2080-2099. The results showed that the ANN models achieved good performances in estimating future reference crop evapotranspiration.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hydrologic Components and Water Resources in Watershed (기후변화에 따른 유역의 수문요소 및 수자원 영향평가)

  • Kim Byung Sik;Kim Hung Soo;Seoh Byung Ha;Kim Nam Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2005
  • The main purpose of this study is to suggest and evaluate an operational method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources of regional scale river basins. The method, which uses large scale climate change information provided by a state of the art general circulation model(GCM) comprises a statistical downscaling approach and a spatially distributed hydrological model applied to a river basin located in Korea. First, we construct global climate change scenarios using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments, then transform the YONU GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change into the site-specific values by statistical downscaling techniques. The values are used to modify the parameters of the stochastic weather generator model for the simulation of the site-specific daily weather time series. The weather series fed into a semi-distributed hydrological model called SLURP to simulate the streamflows associated with other water resources for the condition of $2CO_2$. This approach is applied to the Yongdam dam basin in southern part of Korea. The results show that under the condition of $2CO_2$, about $7.6\% of annual mean streamflow is reduced when it is compared with the observed one. And while Seasonal streamflows in the winter and autumn are increased, a streamflow in the summer is decreased. However, the seasonality of the simulated series is similar to the observed pattern and the analysis of the duration cure shows the mean of averaged low flow is increased while the averaged wet and normal flow are decreased for the climate change.

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