• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2007

The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.251-266
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• 2018

본 연구는 홍수조절댐의 운영패턴 변화에 따른 수질환경에 미치는 영향을 분석한 것이다. 홍수조절댐은 홍수시 하천유량을 일시적으로 담수하여 홍수를 지체시키는 한편, 평상시에는 자연하천 흐름상태를 유지하는 특성을 가지고 있다. 댐 건설 후 담수시 수질변화는 유역모델(HSPF)과 댐 내 수리 수질변화모델(EFDC)을 연계하여 예측하였다. 강우시 유역에서 유출되는 비점오염원의 유출특성을 반영하기 위하여 HSPF 유역모델을 이용하여 분석하였으며, HSPF의 분석된 자료를 EFDC 모델의 입력 자료로 적용하였다. 수질모의 결과 댐 건설 후 수몰로 인한 오염원 감소와 강우시 일시적 저류로 인하여 수질이 향상되는 것으로 예측되었다. 또한 홍수조절댐의 특성상 담수되는 기간이 짧으므로(2~3일) 부영양화 등 수질 악영향은 거의 없는 것으로 분석되었다. 계획 중인 댐의 환경영향평가 단계에서는 모델의 충분한 보정을 할 수 없기 때문에 정확한 모의에 일부 한계가 있을 수 있다. 그러나 향후 실측자료 확보를 통하여 모델의 신뢰도를 향상시킨다면, 이를 활용하여 신규 홍수조절댐의 환경영향평가 시 다양한 운영조건에 따른 수환경의 영향을 검토할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.536-548
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• 2019

기타 수계 중 삽교천 유역에 새롭게 수립된 오염총량관리제도의 시행에 따른 효과를 정량화하기 위해 2015년을 기준으로 유역유출모형인 HSPF 모형을 구축한 후, 최종 목표연도인 2030년의 부하량을 입력하여 각 단위유역 말단에 설정된 목표수질 달성여부를 평가하였으며, 미시행지역인 무한천과 삽교천 유역을 포함하여 유량구간별 수질(BOD, T-P)을 예측하였다. 보정 및 검증이 완료된 모형에 2030년의 부하량을 입력하여 재구동한 후, 모의결과로부터 부하지속곡선을 작성함으로써 기준년도 부하량을 입력하여 구동한 모의 수질과 목표연도 부하량을 입력하여 모의한 예측 수질을 유량구간별로 도식화한 결과, 평수량 구간(40~60%)에서 3개의 단위유역 모두 BOD 목표수질에 근접하게 모의되었으며, 목표수질 달성율도 높게 산정되었다. T-P의 경우, 천안A 46%, 곡교A 29%, 남원A 25% 정도의 수질이 개선되는 것으로 예측되었으며, 무한천과 삽교천유역은 중권역 목표기준인 III등급 이내의 수질로 모의되었다. 총량관리 대상 단위유역은 목표수질을 달성하고, 미시행지역은 목표등급을 달성하는 수준의 수질이 삽교호 내로 유입될 것으로 예측됨으로써 총량제 시행에 따른 삽교천 유역의 수질개선효과가 긍정적일 것으로 판단된다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.247-257
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• 2010

Watershed runoff and turbid water dynamics were simulated in the Youngju Dam, being constructed. The runoff flow and suspended solids were simulated and then thermal stratification and turbid water current in the reservoir were predicted by HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2 model, respectively. Considering selective withdrawal, we hypothesized 3 withdrawal types from the dam, i.e. surface layer, middle layer and the lowest layer. The maximum concentration of SS was 400mg/L in reservoir and it was decreased by the withdrawal. The inflowed turbid water fell to 30 NTU after 12 days regardless of the withdrawal types, but the surface layer withdrawal was a better type at turbid water discharge than the others. In current environmental impact assessment(EIA), we concluded that runoff and reservoir water quality predicted by HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2 was desirable, and appropriate parameters were selected by continous monitoring after EIA.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권3호
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• pp.51-62
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• 2017

Since living environment has improved, waterfront space using and clear water demand have increased. Ministry of Environment (ME) designated polluted reservoir (worse than 4th grade) as a priority management reservoir to improve water quality (better than 3rd grade) accordingly. Minstry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) aims reservoir water quality 4th not 3rd grade. And water quality of agricultural reservoirs was not a great interest. For this reason, there are very few water quality monitoring data. However after designating as a priority management reservoir, reservoir manager should start water quality and flow monitoring of reservoirs and inflow streams. This process makes it possible setting complex model to accurate prediction of reservoir water quality and volume. Mulwang reservoir designated as a priority management reservoir in September 2014. In this study, BASINS/WinHSPF and EFDC-WASP were used to predict effect of water quality improvement countermeasures in Mulwang reservoir. To improve water quality of Mulwang reservoir, Siheung-si and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRCC) established water quality improvement countermeasures. However result of simulation adapting these countermeasures cannot achieve 3rd grade. So 4 additional scenarios were adapted and the result satisfied 3rd grade. This study could help to establish water quality improvement countermeasure by using complex modeling.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.839-852
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• 2014

The Ministry of Environment (MOE) has made more effort in managing point source pollution rather than in nonpoint source pollution in order to improve water quality of the four major rivers. However, it would be difficult to meet water quality targets solely by managing the point source pollution. As a result of the comprehensive measures established in 2004 under the leadership of the Prime Minister's Office, a variety of policies such as the designation of control areas to manage nonpoint source pollution are now in place. Various action plans to manage nonpoint source pollution have been implemented in the Soyang-dam watershed as one of the control areas designed in 2007. However, there are no tools to comprehensively assess the effectiveness of the action plans. Therefore, this study would assess the action plans (especially, BMPs) designed to manage Soyang-dam watershed with the WinHSPF and the CE-QUAL-W2. To this end, we simulated the rainfall-runoff and the water quality (SS) of the watershed and the reservoir after conducting model calibration and the model validation. As the results of the calibration for the WinHSPF, the determination coefficient ($R^2$) for the flow (Q, $m^3/s$) was 0.87 and the $R^2$ for the SS was 0.78. As the results of the validation, the former was 0.78 and the latter was 0.67. The results seem to be acceptable. Similarly, the calibration results of the CE-QUAL-W2 showed that the RMSE for the water level was 1.08 and the RMSE for the SS was 1.11. The validation results(RMSE) of the water level was 1.86 and the SS was 1.86. Based on the daily simulation results, the water quality target (turbidity 50 NTU) was not exceeded for 2009~2011, as results of maximum turbidity in '09, '10, and '11 were 3.1, 2.5, 5.6 NTU, respectively. The maximum turbidity in the years with the maximum, the minimum, and the average of yearly precipitation (1982~2011) were 15.5, 7.8, and 9.0, respectively, and therefore the water quality target was satisfied. It was discharged high turbidity at Inbuk, Gaa, Naerin, Gwidun, Woogak, Jeongja watershed resulting of the maximum turbidity by sub-basins in 3years(2009~2011). The results indicated that the water quality target for the nonpoint source pollution management should be changed and management area should be adjusted and reduced.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권6호
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• pp.97-109
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• 2018

The LDC (Load Duration Curve) method can analyze river water quality changes according to flow rate and seasonal conditions. It is also possible to visually recognize whether the target water quality is exceeded or the size of the reduction load. For this reason, it is used for the optimal reduction of TPLCs and analysis of the cause of water pollution. At this time, the flow duration curve should be representative of the water body hydrologic curve, but if not, the uncertainty of the interpretation becomes big because the damaged flow condition is changed. The purpose of this study is to estimate the daily mean flow of the unit watershed using the HSPF model and to analyze the difference of the flow duration curves according to the cumulative daily mean flow rate using the NSE technique. The results show that it is desirable to construct the flow duration curve by using the daily average flow rate of at least 5 years although there is a difference by unit watershed. However, this is the result of the water bodies at the end of Han River basin watershed, so further study on various water bodies will be necessary in the future.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권12호
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• pp.1103-1111
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 도시화와 기후변화에 대한 미래시나리오를 구성하고 각각의 시나리오별로 수자원 관리 대안들에 대한 효과분석을 수행하였다. 기후변화 시나리오는 SDSM (Statiatical Downscaling Method) 모형을 이용하여 구축하였으며 도시화는 불투수면 모형(Impervious cover model, ICM)을 이용하였다. 안양천 유역에 대해 하수처리수 재이용, 저수지 재개발 대안들을 유황곡선(flow duration curve)과 BOD 농도지속곡선(concentration duration curve)의 변화측면에서 연속유출모형인 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran) 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과, 시나리오별 하천 유출량에 대한 대안 효과의 차이가 고수량 ($Q_{10},\;Q_5,\;Q_1$)에 비해 저수량($Q_{99},\;Q_{95},\;Q_{90}$)과, 수질오염($C_{30},\;C_{10},\;C_1$) 측면에서 크게 나타남을 알 수 있다. 즉 도시화는 물 순환을 크게 악화시키나 대안의 적용이 이러한 현상을 크게 막아줌을 알 수 있다. 또한 목표 유지유량 및 목표 수질 만족일수는 도시화에 대해 매우 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 향후 수자원 관리 대안을 수립할 때 기후변화와 도시화에 대한 분석을 포함시키는 것이 바람직하다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.375-385
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• 2009

The estimation of delivery ratio is a essential part of Korean Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) procedure which needs a number of observed stream flow and pollutants data. If observed data were not sufficient, researchers have to find other alternatives. One of them is to make indirect data by using watershed models, such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) and so on. In this study, indirect daily data was made by using SWAT model. To build the Byongseong-SWAT model accurately, crop cultures are reflected by handling the MGT.file in SWAT model. Especially, mass of manure and schedule of crop culture are inputted through investigating domestic research papers as well as fieldwork. After calibrating SWAT model in comparison with the 22-years flow and pollutants observed outlet data, the delivery ratio of Byongseong watershed is calculated by using daily simulated data during 2004-2007. Empirical equations for delivery ratio through multi-regression analysis are developed by using meteorological and physical factors such as flow, watershed area, stream length, catchment slope, curve number (CN) and subbasin's pollutant discharge loads.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.421-421
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• 2019

본 연구의 목적은 HSPF 모델을 이용하여 비점오염물질이 수질에 미치는 영향을 평가하는 것이다. 합천댐 유역을 연구대상지역으로 선정하였으며, 입력자료는 유역도, 하천도, 토지이용도, 수치표고모델 및 기상자료 등을 이용하였다. HSPF 모형은 2000년부터 2016년까지의 실측값을 이용하여 보정 및 검증이 이루어졌다. 수문 보정을 위한 매개변수는 사용자 설명서와 참고문헌에 근거하여 선정하였으며, 시행착오법에 의해 수행되었다. 모델의 적용성 평가는 $R^2$, RMSE, RMAE, NSE를 사용하였고 $R^2$가 0.78에서 0.83, RMSE는 2.55에서 2.76mm/day, RMAE는 0.46에서 0.48mm/day, NSE는 0.81에서 0.82까지의 범위로 나타났으며, 연간 유출량이 ${\pm}4%$ 오차 이내로 산정되었다. 수질 모형을 구동하기 위한 수질 자료는 환경부에서 제시한 지침에 따라 생활계, 축산계, 산업계, 토지이용량에 따른 발생 부하량과 배출부하량을 산정하였다. 수질 모형 또한 수문과 같은 기간의 자료를 이용하여 보정 및 검정이 이루어졌다. 보정 결과 연평균 BOD의 차이가 0.22mg/L이고 오차범위는 13%였으며, T-N과 T-P는 0.66mg/L, 0.027mg/L의 차이를 가지며 오차범위는 각각 16%, 13%로 나타났다. 수질항목 중에서도 비점오염 관리의 효과를 평가하기 위해 비점오염물질 중 가장 큰 비중을 차지하는 축산계에 감소 시나리오를 적용하였다. 축산계의 배출부하량 감소율이 20%일때의 BOD, T-N, T-P는 각각 3%, 1%, 3% 감소하였으며 40% 감소율을 적용하였을때는 5%, 3%, 4% 감소하였다. 이러한 수질 해석을 결과를 토대로 효과적인 오염물질 방법을 적용하여 수질 개선과 합천댐 유역의 목표수질을 달성 할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.