• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.416-416
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• 2020

우리나라의 계절 특성상 여름철 집중호우가 쏟아지는 현상이 빈번하게 발생하는데 이러한 돌발홍수가 예고 없이 일어나 상습적으로 침수 피해를 입는 지역이 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서 2009년 ~ 2019년 동안 서울시 침수 피해 사건 중심의 인터넷 기사를 기반으로 실제 침수 사례를 조사해본 결과, 침수가 가장 많이 발생한 순으로 반포동(26건), 대치동(25건), 잠실동(21건)으로 집계되었다. 침수피해가 가장 많은 반포동을 연구지역으로 선정하고 그 중 잠수교의 수위를 예측하는 연구를 진행하였다. 기존 연구에서는 수치모형에 비해 신속한 결과를 도출할 수 있는 자료 기반 모형 중 LSTM 기법을 많이 사용하였다. 그러나 이는 선행 시간이 길어질수록 첨두수위에서 과소추정된 것으로 분석된 취약점이 존재하였다(정성호 외, 2018). 본 연구에서는 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해 GANs(Generative Adversarial Networks)를 이용하였다. GANs는 생성자와 감별자가 나뉘어 생성자가 실제 자료인 첨두수위에서의 잠수교의 수위를 학습하고 실제와 근접한 가상데이터를 결과로 생성하여 감별자는 그 생성된 미래의 잠수교의 수위가 실제인지 가상인지 판별하도록 학습시키는 신경망 구조이다. 사용한 수문자료는 한강홍수통제소, 기상청, 국립해양조사원에서 제공하는 최근 15년간의 (2005년~2019년) 수위, 방류량, 강수량, 조위 자료를 수집하였고 t-test와 상관성분석을 통해 사용한 인자 간의 유의미성 판단과 상관성을 분석했다. 또한, 민감도 분석 결과 시퀀스길이(5), 반복횟수(1000), 은닉층(10), 학습률(0.005)로 최적값을 선정하였다. 또한 학습구간(2005년~2014년)과 검증구간(2015~2019년)으로 나누어 상대적으로 높은 수위가 관측되는 홍수기의 3, 6, 9시간 후의 수위를 예측하고 오차 지표를 이용해 평가하였다. LSTM 기법으로 예측된 수위와 GANs로 예측된 수위를 비교한 결과 GANs으로 예측된 첨두수위에서의 정확도가 5% 정도로 향상되었다. 향후에는 다양한 영향인자와 다른 기법과의 결합을 고려한다면 보다 정확하게 수위를 예측하여 하천 주변 사회기반시설의 침수 피해를 감소시킬 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.117-117
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• 2022

범지구적인 기후변화로 인하여 도시유역의 국지성 집중호우가 빈번히 발생하고 기상이변 현상이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 이로 인해 도시지역의 침수 등의 자연재해 증가로 인명 및 재산피해가 발생하고 있다. 이에 따라 하수도의 제 기능을 수행하고 있다면 문제가 없지만 이상기후로 인한 기록적인 폭우에 의해 침수가 발생하고 있다. 홍수 및 집중호우와 같은 극치사상의 발생빈도가 증가됨에 따라 강우사상의 변동에 따른 하수관로의 수위를 예측하고 침수에 대해 대처하기 위해 과거 수위에 따른 수위 예측은 중요할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에서는 서울 열린데이터 광장에서 제공하는 서울시 하수관로 수위 현황 자료를 활용하여 하수관로 수위 예측을 확인해 보았다. 대상자료는 서울특별시 강동구에 위치한 하수관로 수위 자료로, 서울 열린데이터 광장에서 제공하고 있는 2012년 ~ 2020년 25개 구 데이터 중 가장 누락데이터가 적은 자료를 활용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 하수관로 수위 예측에는 딥러닝 알고리즘RNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용하였으며, RNN-LSTM 알고리즘은 하천의 수위 예측에 우수한 성능을 보여준 바 있다. 하수관로 수위 예측에 앞서 1분 단위로 수집된 수위 데이터를 5분 평균, 5분 스킵자료, 10분 평균, 10분 스킵 등 비교를 위해 데이터를 구분하여 학습에 활용하였으며, 데이터 분석을 위해 하수관로 수위값 변동이 심한 1주일을 선정하여 분석을 실시하였다. 연구에는Google에서 개발한 딥러닝 오픈소스 라이브러리인 텐서플로우를 활용하였으며, 하수관로 수위 고유번호 25-0001을 대상으로 예측을 하였다. 학습에는 2012년 ~ 2018년의 하수관로 수위 자료를 활용하였으며, 모형의 검증을 위해 결정계수(R square)를 이용하여 통계분석을 실시하였다.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.208-213
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• 2007

When overland flow water is small and slow, it moves down a stream slowly and we use it as available resource. However, it could not only be good for nothing but arouse an inundation if a lot of runoff pour down to stream at a torrential rain. So it is important to know how much water to flow out and be stored in soil and on land in order to predict a flood and conserve soil and water quality. We intended to develop the prediction model of runoff in upland at a torrential rain and conducted lysimeter study in soybean cultivation and bare soil with 3 slopeness, 3 slope length and 5 soil texture from 1985 to 1991. The data of rainfall and runoff were used when daily rainfall was over 80 mm, the level of torrential rain warning. Minimum rainfall occurring runoff (MROR) was dependent on surface coverage and slope length. However soil texture and slopeness had a little influence on MROR. Runoff after MROR increased in proportion to precipitation which depended on surface coverage, soil texture and slope. Runoff ratio was larger in fine texture and bare soil than coarse soil and soybean coverage. Runoff ratio was in proportion to a square root of slope angle(radian) and reduced with slope length to converge a certain value. From these basis, we developed the prediction model following as $$Runoff(mm)=a(s^{0.5}+l^b)(Rainfall(mm)-80(1-e^{-bl}))$$ where a is a coefficient relevant soil hydraulic properties, b is a surface coverage coefficient, s is a slope angle and l is a slope length. The coefficient a was 0.5 in sandy loam and 0.6 in clay, and b was 0.06 in bare soil and 0.5 in soybean cultivation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2003

In this paper, the laboratory test results with middle-sired ,soil box test in modeling the in-situ installing of horizontal drains are discussed the estimation of the optimum negative pressure. The test was carried out in the different vacuum pressure conditions together with the measurement for the settlement and volume change of drained water by the installed drains during the consolidation process. After the test, the water content was measured to both directions of lateral distance from the drain and depth of the soil, to find out the distribution of ground improvement and strength enhancement. From the analysis on the distribution of water content, the gradual application of vacuum pressure to higher level by pre-determined stages starting from low vacuum pressure is found to be effective and desirable. In the comparison of the degrees of consolidation with elapsed time, the calculated value by the prediction method based on the Barren's conventional theory showed a good agreement with the measured value. With this, It is positively considered that the applicability of the prediction method based on Barren's theory to the practical design of horizontal drains can be justified such as in the calculation of drain spacing and consolidation period.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.38-47
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• 2002

This paper demonstrates a regional analysis of landslide occurrence potential by applying geographic information system to the Kumi City selected as a pilot study area. The estimate criteria related to natural and humane environmental factors which affect landslides were first established. A slope map and a aspect map were extracted from DEM, which was generated from the contour layers of digital topographic maps, and a NDVI vegetation map and a land cover map were obtained through satellite image processing. After the spatial database was constructed, indexes of landslide occurrence potential were computed and then a few landslide-potential areas were extracted by an overlay method. It was ascertained that there are high landslide-potential at areas of about 30% incline, aspects including either south or east at least, adjacent to water areas or pointed end of the water system, in or near fault zones, covered with medium vegetable. For more synthetic and accurate analysis, soil data, forest data, underground water level data, meteorological data and so on should be added to the spatial database.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.39-46
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• 2018

After the North-South Korean summit and PyeongChang Winter Olympics, it is recently expected that the North-South economic cooperation plan will be discussed in earnest. And it will be growing interest of the major infrastructure facilities such as roads and railways, and so on North-South Korean. Moreover, most of North Korean facilities have problems related to the safety and functionality of them such as aging, deterioration, and poor maintenance. This study asserts the necessity and importance of infrastructure maintenance in the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, Results of this study, it is appeared that very vulnerable to road, railroad, power/communication, water sewage and needed urgently for improvement. Accordingly, The purpose of this study is to investigate the current status for the whole facilities including the main infrastructure of the North Korean and to evaluate on the maintenance level of infrastructure based on face to face interview refugees of North Korean.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.55-64
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• 2017

A geological repository has been considered one of the most adequate options for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. A geological repository will be constructed in a host rock at a depth of 500~1,000 meters below the ground surface. The geological repository system consists of a disposal canister with packed spent fuel, buffer material, backfill material, and intact rock. The buffer is very important to assure the disposal safety of high-level radioactive waste. It can restrain the release of radionuclide and protect the canister from the inflow of groundwater. High temperature in a disposal canister is released into the surrounding buffer material, and thus the thermal transfer behavior of the buffer material is very important to analyze the entire disposal safety. Therefore, this paper presents a thermal conductivity prediction model for the Kyungju compacted bentonite buffer material which is the only bentonite produced in Korea. Thermal conductivity of Kyungju bentonite was measured using a hot wire method according to various water contents and dry densities. With 39 data obtained by the hot wire method, a regression model to predict the thermal conductivity of Kyungju bentonite was suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.131-138
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• 2009

In this paper, a dynamic warning system to forecast inland flooding associated with typhoons and storms is described. The system is used operationally during the typhoon season to anticipate the potential impact such as inland flooding on the coastal zone of interest. The system has been developed for the use of the public and emergency management officials. Simple typhoon models for quick prediction of wind fields are implemented in a user-friendly way by using a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of MATLAB. The main program for simulating tides, depth-averaged tidal currents, wind-driven surges and currents was also vectorized for the fast performance by MATLAB. By pushing buttons and clicking the typhoon paths, the user is able to obtain real-time water level fluctuation of specific points and the flooding zone. This system would guide local officials to make systematic use of threat information possible. However, the model results are sensitive to typhoon path, and it is yet difficult to provide accurate information to local emergency managers.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.495-508
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• 2019

Tidal datums are key and basic information used in fields of navigation, coastal structures' design, maritime boundary delimitation and inundation warning. In Korea, the Approximate Lowest Low Water (ALLW) and the Approximate Highest High Water (AHHW) have been used as levels of tidal datums for depth, coastline and vertical clearances in hydrography and coastal engineering fields. However, recently the major maritime countries including USA, Australia and UK have adopted the Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) and the Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) as the tidal datums. In this study, 1-hr interval 19-year sea level records (1999-2017) observed at 9 tidal observation stations along the west and south coasts of Korea were used to calculate LAT and HAT for each station using 1-minute interval 19-year tidal prediction data yielded through three tidal harmonic methods: 19 year vector average of tidal harmonic constants (Vector Average Method, VA), tidal harmonic analysis on 19 years of continuous data (19-year Method, 19Y) and tidal harmonic analysis on one year of data (1-year Method, 1Y). The calculated LAT and HAT values were quantitatively compared with the ALLW and AHHW values, respectively. The main causes of the difference between them were explored. In this study, we used the UTide, which is capable of conducting 19-year record tidal harmonic analysis and 19 year tidal prediction. Application of the three harmonic methods showed that there were relatively small differences (mostly less than ±1 cm) of the values of LAT and HAT calculated from the VA and 19Y methods, revealing that each method can be mutually and effectively used. In contrast, the standard deviations between LATs and HATs calculated from the 1Y and 19Y methods were 3~7 cm. The LAT (HAT) differences between the 1Y and 19Y methods range from -16.4 to 10.7 cm (-8.2 to 14.3 cm), which are relatively large compared to the LAT and HAT differences between the VA and 19Y methods. The LAT (HAT) values are, on average, 33.6 (46.2) cm lower (higher) than those of ALLW (AHHW) along the west and south coast of Korea. It was found that the S_a and N₂ tides significantly contribute to these differences. In the shallow water constituents dominated area, the M₄ and MS₄ tides also remarkably contribute to them. Differences between the LAT and the ALLW are larger than those between the HAT and the AHHW. The asymmetry occurs because the LAT and HAT are calculated from the amplitudes and phase-lags of 67 harmonic constituents whereas the ALLW and AHHW are based only on the amplitudes of the 4 major harmonic constituents.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.657-668
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• 2022

With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.