• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water demand prediction

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Monitoring of Water Quality Parameters using Spectroscopic Characteristics of River Water - Ulsan Area (하천 분광특성을 이용한 수질항목 모니터링 연구 - 울산 지역)

  • Hur, Jin;Kim, Mi-Kyung;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.863-871
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    • 2007
  • Spectroscopic characteristics of river water from four major watersheds in the Ulsan area were measured to examine their potential for estimating water quality parameters. The total 176 river samples were collected from 44 sites of small streams within the watersheds during the year 2006. Spectroscopic characteristics investigated included protein-like fluorescence (FLF) intensity, fulvic-like fluorescence (FLF) intensity, terrestrial humic-like fluorescence (TLF) intensity, UV absorbance at 254 nm, and UV absorbance difference at 220 nm and 254 nm. Protein-like fluorescence intensity showed linear relationships with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorous (TP) concentrations of the samples with the correlation of 0.784, 0.779, and 0.733, respectively. Due to the UV absorption characteristics of nitrate at 220 nm, UV absorbance difference at 220 nm and 254 nm was selected to represent total nitrogen (TN) concentration. Exclusion of some samples with PLF intensity higher than 5.0 improved the correlation between the UV absorbance difference and TN as demonstrated by the increase of the correlation coefficient from 0.392 to 0.784. Instead, for the samples with PLF intensity lower than 5.0, the highest correlation of TN was achieved with UV absorbance at 254 nm. The results suggest that PLF intensity could be used as the estimation index for BOD, COD, and TP concentration of river water, and as the primary screening index for the prediction of TN using UV absorbance difference. Some BOD-based water quality levels among the river water were statistically discriminated by the PLF intensity. Low p-values were obtained from the t-tests on the samples with the first level and the second level (p=0.0003) and the samples with the second and the third levels (p=0.0413). Our combined results demonstrated that the selected spectroscopic characteristics of river water could be utilized as a tool for on-site real-time monitoring and/or the primary estimation of water quality.

Water Resources Management Challenge in the Citarum River Basin, Indonesia

  • Wicaksono, Albert;Yudianto, Doddi;Jeong, Gimoon;Kang, Doosun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.198-198
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    • 2016
  • The Citarum River Basin is the biggest river basin in West Java Province, Indonesia and it plays strategic roles in providing water for irrigation, domestic and industrial uses, and power generation, besides controlling the flood during rainy season. Flowing through seven major cities makes the river flow and water demand are vulnerable to land use change around the river. The present water resources management has involved the regulator, operator, and users in deciding an appropriate water management plan for the entire basin. The plan includes an operation plan for three reservoirs, construction or maintenance of the river channel, and water allocation for all users along the river. Following this plan, a smaller operation group will execute and evaluates the plan based on the actual flow condition. Recently, a deforestation, environment degradation, river sedimentation, a rapid growth of population and industry, also public health become new issues that should be considered in water basin planning. Facing these arising issues, a new development program named ICWRMIP was established to advance the existing management system. This program includes actions to strengthen institutional collaboration, do the restoration and conservation of the river environment, improve water quality and public health, also advance the water allocation system. At present, the water allocation plan is created annually based on a forecasted flow data and water usage prediction report. Sometimes this method causes a difficulty for the operator when the actual flow condition is not the same as the prediction. Improving existing system, a lot of water allocation studies, including a development of the database and water allocation simulation model have been placed to help stakeholders decide the suitable planning schemes. In the future, this study also tries to contribute in advancing water allocation planning by creating an optimization model which ease stakeholders discover a suitable water allocation plan for individual users.

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Water consumption prediction based on machine learning methods and public data

  • Kesornsit, Witwisit;Sirisathitkul, Yaowarat
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.113-128
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    • 2022
  • Water consumption is strongly affected by numerous factors, such as population, climatic, geographic, and socio-economic factors. Therefore, the implementation of a reliable predictive model of water consumption pattern is challenging task. This study investigates the performance of predictive models based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support vector regression (SVR). To understand the significant factors affecting water consumption, the stepwise regression (SW) procedure is used in MLR to obtain suitable variables. Then, this study also implements three predictive models based on these significant variables (e.g., SWMLR, SWMLP, and SWSVR). Annual data of water consumption in Thailand during 2006 - 2015 were compiled and categorized by provinces and distributors. By comparing the predictive performance of models with all variables, the results demonstrate that the MLP models outperformed the MLR and SVR models. As compared to the models with selected variables, the predictive capability of SWMLP was superior to SWMLR and SWSVR. Therefore, the SWMLP still provided satisfactory results with the minimum number of explanatory variables which in turn reduced the computation time and other resources required while performing the predictive task. It can be concluded that the MLP exhibited the best result and can be utilized as a reliable water demand predictive model for both of all variables and selected variables cases. These findings support important implications and serve as a feasible water consumption predictive model and can be used for water resources management to produce sufficient tap water to meet the demand in each province of Thailand.

Prediction of water demand using deep learning and smart water meter (스마트 수도미터와 딥러닝을 활용한 수용가별 물 사용량 예측)

  • Kim, Jongsung;Song, Jaehyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.394-394
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    • 2022
  • 최근 스마트 수도미터의 보급을 통해 수용가구별 물 사용 자료를 수집할 수 있다. 이런 수용가구별 물 사용 패턴은 주말, 날씨 등 다양한 요인으로 인해 비선형적 특성을 가지고 있다. 그로인해 전통적인 시계열 예측 모형인 ARIMA 모형으로 적용하기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 딥러닝 기반의 LSTM 모형을 통해 수용가구별 물 소비량 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 이 모형은 비선형적인 물 소비 패턴을 학습하기 위해 다양한 변수를 고려하였다. 서로 다른 종류의 4개 type (A : 단독주택, B: 아파트, C: 음식점, D : 초등학교)의 수용가구에 대한 ARIMA 모형과 LSTM 모형을 개발하였고, 학습에 사용되지 않은 새로운 데이터를 적용하여 정량적으로 예측성능을 비교했다. 그 결과, 모든 수용가구에서 LSTM 모형이 ARIMA 모형보다 성능이 우수하였다 (상관계수 : 평균89% | RMSE : 평균 5.60m3). 따라서 본 연구에서 제안한 모형은 수용가구별 물 사용량을 예측하는데 높은 활용도를 보일 것으로 기대된다.

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Simulation for Chlorine Residuals and Effect of Rechlorination in Drinking Water Distribution Systems of Suwon City (수원시 상수관망에서 잔류염소와 재염소주입의 효과 예측)

  • Kim, Kyung-Rok;Lee, Byong-Hi;Yoo, Ho Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2000
  • Chlorine is widely used as a disinfectant in drinking-water systems throughout the world. Chlorine residual was used as an indicator for prediction of water quality in water distribution systems. The variation of chlorine residual in drinking water distribution systems of Suwon city was simulated using EPANET. EPANET is a computerized simulation model which predicts the dynamic hydraulic and water quality behavior within a water distribution system operating over an extended time period. Sampling and analysis were performed to calibrated the computer model in 1999 (Aug. Summer). Water quality variables used in simulations are temperature, roughness coefficient, pipe diameter, pipe length, water demand, velocity and so on. Extended water residence time affected water quality due to the extended reaction time in some areas. All area showed the higher concentration of chlorine residual than 0.2mg/l(standard). So it can be concluded that any area in Suwon city is not in biological regrowth problem. Rechlorination turned out to be an useful method for uniform concentration of free chlorine residual in distribution system. The cost of disinfectant could be saved remarkably by cutting down the initial chlorine concentration to the level which guarantees minimum concentration (0.2mg/l) throughout the distribution system.

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Chlorine Residual Prediction in Drinking Water Distribution System Using EPANET (EPANET을 이용한 상수도 관망의 잔류염소 거동 예측)

  • 유희종;김주원;정효준;이홍근
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2003
  • In this study, chlorine dose at water storage tank was predicted to meet the recommended guideline for free chlorine residual in drinking water distribution system, using EPANET which is a computer program that performs extended Period simulation of hydraulic and water quality behavior within pressurized pipe networks. The results may be summarized as follows. The decay of chlorine residual by season varied considerably in the following order; in summer ($25^{\circ}C$) > spring and fall (15$^{\circ}C$) > winter (5$^{\circ}C$). For re-chlorination at water storage tank by season, season-varying chlorine dose was required at its maximum of 1.00 mg/l in summer and minimum of 0.40 mg/l in winter as free chlorine residual. The decay of chlorine residual through out the networks increased with water age spent by a parcel of water in the network except for some points with low water demand. In conclusion, the season-varying chlorine dose as well as the monitoring of water quality parameters at the some points which showed high decay of chlorine residual may be necessary to deliver the safe drinking water.

Prediction of Land-cover Changes and Analysis of Paddy Fields Changes Based on Climate Change Scenario (A1B) in Agricultural Reservoir Watersheds (기후변화 시나리오 (A1B)에 따른 농업용 저수지 유역의 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 논 면적 변화 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Yun-Gyeong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Park, Na-Young;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yun, Dong-Koun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2012
  • This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

-A Study on a Mathematical Model for Water Quality Prediction for Rivers- (하천(河川)의 수질예측(水質豫測)을 위한 수치모형(數値模型)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Sung-Soon;Lee, Yang-Kyoo;Kim, Gap-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 1995
  • The propriety of the numerical model application was examined on Paldang resevoir and its inflow tributaries located in the center of the Korean peninsula and the long term water quality forecast of the oxygen profile was carried out in this syduy. The input data of the model was the capacity of the reservoir, catchment area, percolation, diffusion rate, vertical mixing rate, dissolution rate from the bottom of the reservoir, outflow of the resevoir, water quality measurement and meteorology data of the drainage basin, and the output result was the annual estimation value of the dissolved oxygen concentration and the biochemical oxygen demand. The modeling method is based on the measured or calculated boundary condition dividing the water area into several blocks from the macorscopic aspect and considering the mass balance in these blocks. As the result of the water quality forecast, it was expected that the water quality in Northern Han River and Paldang reservoir would maintain the recent level, but that the water quality in the Southern Han River and its inflow tributary would worsen below the grade 4 of the life environmental standard from around 2000 owing to the decrease of DO concentration and the increase of BOD concentration.

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The Prediction of Water Quality in Ulsan Area Using Material Cycle Model (물질순환모델을 이용한 울산해역의 수질예측)

  • SHIN BUM-SHICK;KIM KYU-HAN;PYUN CHONG-KUN
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.20 no.1 s.68
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • Recently, pollution by development in coastal areas is going from bad to worse. The Korean government is attempting to make policies that prevent water pollution, but it is still difficult to say whether such measures are lowering pollution to an acceptable level. More specifically, the general investigation that has been done in KOREA does not accurately reflect the actual conditions of pollution in coastal areas. An investigation that quantitatively assesses water quality management using rational prediction technology must be attempted, and the ecosystem model, which incorporates both the 3-dimensional hydrodynamic and material cycle models, is the only one with a broad enough scope to obtain accurate results. The hydrodynamic model, which includes advection and diffusion, accounts for the ever-changing flow and (quality) of water in coastal areas, while the material cycle model accounts for pollutants and components of decomposition as sources of the carbon, phosphorus, and nitrogen cycles. In this paper, we simulated the rates of dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen(T-N) and total-phosphorous(T-P) in Korea's Ulsan Area. Using the ecosystem model, we did simulations using a specific set of parameters and did comparative analysis to determine those most appropriate for the actual environmental characteristics of Ulsan Area. The simulation was successful, making it now possible to predict the likelihood of coastal construction projects causing ecological damage, such as eutrophication and red tide. Our model can also be used in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) of future development projects in the ocean.

Seasonal Prediction Model for Urban Water Demand (급수수요량의 계절별 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Gu, Ja-Yong
    • 수도
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    • v.23 no.6 s.81
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    • pp.36-46
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    • 1996
  • 급수 수요량의 단기예측은 상수도 시스템의 유지관리 계획 수립의 중요한 구성 요소이며, 대상지역의 특성을 민감하게 반영하고 있으므로, 급수수요의 지역 특성과 관련된 수요 구조의 파악이 무엇보다 중요한 과제라 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 상수도 시스템의 합리적 배수 제어 획을 실시하기 위한 기초적 정보인 급수량 변동 구조에 대해 통계적인 분석을 실시하였다. 특히 일단위의 급수량에 초점을 두어 급수량의 시계열 특성과 급수량 영향 요인 분석을 통하여 대상 지역의 정상 시계열장과 급수량에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 또한 급수량의 계절별 단기 수요 예측 모델을 제안하기 위하여 통계적 예측 수법으로 평가 받고 있는 MARIMA (Multiple Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델을 급수량 단기 수요 예측에 적용하여 계절별 급수 수요량을 예측하였다.

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