• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2007년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1387-1391
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• 2007

In this study, water quality prediction that is necessary to water quality forecasting system is performed using 2-D river analysis models RMA-2 and RAM4. RAM4 is suitable to water quality forecasting system cause it is possible to put in the pollutants as a mass type boundary condition. Instant injections of pollutants at Yongdamdaegyo Bridge in Namhangang River are simulated and the behavior of pollutant cloud is observed. The effects of water quality accident to Paldang 2 water intake plants in Paldangho Lake is analyzed with time variation. And extra flow simulation is performed for mitigation of pollution. Several cases of water quality forecasting system at home and abroad are investigated and the direction of water quality forecasting system is presented.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.305-314
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• 2007

Forecasting of water quality variation is not an easy process due to the complicated nature of various water quality factors and their interrelationships. The objective of this study is to test the applicability of neural network models to the forecasting of the water quality at Dalchun station in Han River. Input data is consist of monthly data of concentration of DO, BOD, COD, SS and river flow. And this study selected optimal neural network model through changing the number of hidden layer based on input layer(n) from n to 6n. After neural network theory is applied, the models go through training, calibration and verification. The result shows that the proposed model forecast water quality of high efficiency and developed web-based water quality forecasting system after extend model

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.16-24
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• 2014

A combined watershed and receiving waterbody model was developed for operational water flow forecasting of the Nakdong river. The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) was used for simulating the flow rates at major tributaries. To simulate the flow dynamics in the main stream, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, EFDC was used with the inputs derived from the HSPF simulation. The combined models were calibrated and verified using the data measured under different hydrometeological and hydraulic conditions. The model results were generally in good agreement with the field measurements in both calibration and verification. The 7-days forecasting performance of water flows in the Nakdong river was satisfying compared with model calibration results. The forecasting results suggested that the water flow forecasting errors were primarily attributed to the uncertainties of the models, numerical weather prediction, and water release at the hydraulic structures such as upstream dams and weirs. From the results, it is concluded that the combined watershed-waterbody model could successfully simulate the water flows in the Nakdong river. Also, it is suggested that integrating real-time data and information of dam/weir operation plans into model simulation would be essential to improve forecasting reliability.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.738-748
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• 2005

Considering pollution source is transferred by discharge, it is very important to analyze the correlation between discharge and water quality. And temperature also influent to the water quality. In this paper, it is used water quality data that was measured DO (Dissolved Oxygen), TOC (Total Organic Carbon), TN (Total Nitrogen), TP (Total Phosphorus) at Dalchun real time monitoring stations in Namhan river. These characteristics were analyzed with the water quality of rainy and nonrainy periods. Input data of the water quality forecasting models that they were constructed by neural network and neuro-fuzzy was chosen as the reasonable data, and water quality forecasting models were applied. LMNN (Levenberg-Marquardt Neural Network), MDNN (MoDular Neural Network), and ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) models have achieved the highest overall accuracy of TOC data. LMNN and MDNN model which are applied for DO, TN, TP forecasting shows better results than ANFIS. MDNN model shows the lowest estimation error when using daily time, which is qualitative data trained with quantitative data. If some data has periodical properties, it seems effective using qualitative data to forecast.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.533-541
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• 2011

Algal blooms have caused problems for drinking water as well as eutrophication. However it is difficult to control algal blooms by current warning manual in rainy season because the algal blooms happen in a few days. The water quality data, which have high correlations with Chlorophyll-a on Daecheongho station, were analyzed and chosen as input data of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for training pattern changes. ANN was applied to early forecasting of algal blooms, and ANN was assessed by forecasting errors. Water temperature, pH and Dissolved oxygen were important factors in the cross correlation analysis. Some water quality items like Total phosphorus and Total nitrogen showed similar pattern to the Chlorophyll-a changes with time lag. ANN model (No. 3), which was calibrated by water temperature, pH and DO data, showed lowest error. The combination of 1 day, 3 days, 7 days forecasting makes outputs more stable. When automatic monitoring data were used for algal bloom forecasting in Daecheong reservoir, ANN model must be trained by just input data which have high correlation with Chlorophyll-a concentration. Modular type model, which is combined with the output of each model, can be effectively used for stable forecasting.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제38권7호
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• pp.565-574
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• 2005

평창강 수질자동측정망 실시간 자료를 이용하여 강우시와 무강우시로 구분하여 분석하였다. 강우시에 측정된 TOC 자료는 무강우시 측정된 자료에 비해 평균값, 최대값, 표준편차가 크게 나타났으며, 강우시의 DO 자료는 무강우시에 측정된 자료보다 낮아 유량이 수질변화에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 신경망 모형과 뉴로-퍼지 모형으로 수질예측 모형을 구성하고, 적용하였다. LMNN, MDNN, ANFIS 모형은 TOC 모의에서 DO 예측에서는 LMNN, MDNN 모형이 ANFIS 모형보다 좋은 결과를 보였으며, 정량적 자료에 정성적 자료인 시간을 학습한 MDNN 모형이 가장 작은 오차를 보였다. 하천의 실시간적 관리를 위해서는 유량과 수질의 측정이 동일한 지점에서 동시간적으로 이루어져야 보다 효과적이다. 그러나 수질자동측정망 지점과 T/M 수위관측소가 원거리에 위치한 경우들이 있으며, 평창강 수질자동측정망 지점이 그 중 하나이다. 연구에서는 평창강 수질자동측정망 지점의 유출예측을 위한 신경망 모형을 구성하여 수질예측 모형과 연계하였으며, 연계된 모형은 수질예측에 개선된 결과를 보였다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.433-440
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• 1998

This study was carried out to develop the stream water quality model for the intaking station of Kongju waterworks in the Keum River system. The monthly water quality(total nitrogen and total phosphorus) with periodicity and trend were forecasted by multiplicative ARIU models and then the applicability of the models was tested based on 7 years of the historical monthly water quality data at Kongju intaking strate. The parameter estimation was made with the monthly observed data. The last one year data was used to compare the forecasted water Quality by ARU model with the observed one. The models are ARIMA(2,0,0)$\times$(0,1,1)l2 for total nitrogen, ARIMA(0,1,1)x(0,1,1)l2 for total phosphorus. The forecasting results showed a good agreement with the observed data. It is implying the applicability of multiplicative ARIMA model for forecasting monthly water quality at the Kongju site.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.201-207
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• 2002

This study was carried out to evaluate the artificial neural network algorithm for water quality forecasting in Chungju lake, north Chungcheong province. Multi-layer perceptron(MLP) was used to train artificial neural networks. MLP was composed of one input layer, two hidden layers and one output layer. Transfer functions of the hidden layer were sigmoid and linear function. The number of node in the hidden layer was decided by trial and error method. It showed that appropriate node number in the hidden layer is 10 for pH training, 15 for DO and BOD, respectively. Reliability index was used to verify for the forecasting power. Considering some outlying data, artificial neural network fitted well between actual water quality data and computed data by artificial neural networks.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.55-62
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• 2005

This study applied the Neural Network and Fuzzy theory to show water-purity control and preventive measure in water quality forecasting of the future river. This study picked out NAJU and HAMPYUNG as the subject of investigation and used monthly the water quality and the outflow data of KWANGJU2, NAJU, YOUNGSANNPO and HAMPYUNG from 1995 to 1999 to forecast BOD, COD, T-N, T-P water density. The datum from 1995 to 1999 are used for study and that of 2000 are used for verification. To develop model of water quality forecasting, firstly, this research formed Neural Network model and divided Neural Network model into two case - the case of considering lag and not considering. And this study selected optimal Neural Network model through changing the number of hidden layer based on input layer(n) from n to 3n. Through forecasting result, the case without considering lag showed more precise simulated result. Accordingly, this study intended to compare, analyse that Fuzzy model using the method without considering lag with Neural Network model. As a result, this study found that the model without considering lag in Neural Network Network shows the most excellent outcome. Thus this study examined a forecasting accuracy, analyzed result and verified propriety through appling the method of water quality forecasting using Neural Network and Fuzzy Algorithms to the actual case.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.701-711
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• 2001

수질 인자들은 다양하고 관계가 복잡하여 수질 변화를 예측하는데 많은 어려움이 있다. 따라서 입력과 출력이 비교적 용이하고 비선형 예측에 적합한 신경망 모형을 이용하여 금강유역 공주지점의 DO, BOD, TN에 대한 월수질 예측을 수행하고 ARIMA 모형과 비교하여 적용 가능성을 검토하였다. 사용된 신경망 모형은 학습을 위해 BP(Back Propagation) 알고리즘을 적용하였으며 학습을 향상시키기 위한 모멘트-적응학습율(Moment-Adaptive learming rate) 방법을 이용한 MANN 모형, 레번버그-마쿼트(Levenberg-Marquardt) 방법을 이 용한 LMNN 모형, 그리고 정성적인 판단인자를 첨가하여 정량적인 월 수질 자료와 분별, 학습하 도록 은닉층을 분리한 MNN 모형으로 구분하였다. 대체로 신경망 모형의 예측치가 실측치에 근사한 결과를 보였으며, 은닉층을 분리한 MNN 모형이 가장 우수한 결과를 보였다.