• Title/Summary/Keyword: WTI

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A Study on Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustment of Spot Prices of Major Crude Oils (주요 원유 현물가격간의 비선형 동적조정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Haesun;Lee, Sangjik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.657-677
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    • 2015
  • We employ a 3 regime-threshold vector error correction models (TVECM) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic adjustments of three marker crude oil prices such as WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent and Dubai. Especially we deal with 3 combinations of oil prices including WTI-Brent, WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai in order to analyze the dynamic adjustments of the prices based on the effects of the price spreads among these crude oil prices. Our daily spot prices data run from 2001.1.3 to 2014.12.31. We found that each combination is cointegrated over the period. WTI had dropped significantly in 2010 which had affected the movements of the spreads. To accomodate this fact, we divide the period into two sub-periods: 2000.1.3-2009.12.31 and 2010.1.1-2014.12.31. It is found that each combination is cointegrated in both sub-periods. Moroever, in the first sub-period, all three oil prices are shown to follow nonlinear dynamic adjustments. In the second sub-period, however, TVECM is better than VECM(vector error correction model) for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai while VECM performs better for WTI-Brent. The transaction costs are estimated to be reduced for the second sub-period for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai compared to the first sub-period.

Fabrication of a mask for X-ray lithography Using SiN membrane and WTi Absorber (SiN 멤브레인과 WTi 흡수체를 이용한 X-선 노광용 마스크 제작)

  • 이문석;김오현
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.32A no.12
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 1995
  • A mask for x-ray lithography is fabricated with SiN membrane and WTi absorber. SiN membrane is deposited by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition, and the stress of SiN membrane is controlled to be less than 100 MPa by rapid thermal annealing. WTi absorber is reactively deposited by DC-magnetron type sputter, and the working gases are argon and nitrogen. Added nitrogen is contributed to the stress of WTi absorber. The stress of WTi absorber is controlled to be less than $\pm$ 100 MPa by controlling the deposition pressure. 10$\mu$m WTi pattern is delineated on SiN membrane by dry etching technique.

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Comparison of Price Predictive Ability between Futures Market and Expert System for WTI Crude Oil Price (선물시장과 전문가예측시스템의 가격예측력 비교 - WTI 원유가격을 대상으로 -)

  • Yun, Won-Cheol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.201-220
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    • 2005
  • Recently, we have been witnessing new records of crude oil price hikes. One question which naturally arises would be the possibility and accuracy of forecasting crude oil prices. This study tries to answer the relative predictability of futures prices compared to the forecasts based on experts system. Using WTI crude oil spot and futures prices, this study performs simple statistical comparisons in forecasting accuracy and a formal test of differences in forecasting errors. According to statistical results, WTI crude oil futures market turns out to be equally efficient relative to EIA experts system. Consequently, WTI crude oil futures market could be utilized as a market-based tool for price forecasting and/or resource allocation for both of petroleum producers and consumers.

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An Analysis of the Effects of WTI on Korean Stock Market Using HAR Model (국내 주식시장 변동성에 대한 국제유가의 영향: 이질적 자기회귀(HAR) 모형을 사용하여)

  • Kim, Hyung-Gun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.535-555
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    • 2021
  • This study empirically analyzes the effects of international oil prices on domestic stock market volatility. The data used for the analysis are 10-minute high-frequency data of the KOSPI index and WTI futures price from January 2, 2015, to July 30, 2021. For using the high-frequency data, a heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) model is employed. The analysis model utilizes the advantages of high frequency data to observe the impact of international oil prices through realized volatility, realized skewness, and kurtosis as well as oil price return. In the estimation, the Box-Cox transformation is applied in consideration of the distribution of realized volatility with high skewness. As a result, it finds that the daily return fluctuation of the WTI price has a statistically significant positive (+) effect on the volatility of the KOSPI return. However, the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of the WTI return do not appear to affect the volatility of the KOSPI return. This result is believed to be because the volatility of the KOSPI return reflects the daily change in the WTI return, but does not reflect the intraday trading behavior of investors.

Information Transmission of Volatility between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Markets

  • Kang, Sang Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.671-689
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    • 2013
  • Transmission mechanisms of volatility between two crude oil markets (WTI and Brent markets) have drawn the attention of numerous academics and practitioners because they both play crucial roles in portfolio and risk management in crude oil markets. In this context, we examined the volatility linkages between two representative crude oil markets using a VECM and an asymmetric bivariate GARCH model. First, looking at the return transmission through the VECM test, we found a long-run equilibrium and bidirectional relationship between two crude oil markets. However, the estimation results of the GARCH-BEKK model suggest that there is unidirectional volatility spillover from the WTI market to the Brent market, implying that the WTI market tends to exert influence over the Brent market and not vice versa. Regarding asymmetric volatility transmission, we also found that bad news volatility in the WTI market increases the volatility of the Brent market. Thus, WTI information is transmitted into the Brent market, indicating that the prices of the WTI market seem to lead the prices of the Brent market.

Analysis of dependency structure between international freight rate index and crude oil price (국제운임지수와 원유가격의 의존관계 분석)

  • Kim, Bu-Kwon;Kim, Dong-Yoon;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2019
  • Crude oil is a resource that is being used as a raw material in major industries, representing the price of the raw material market. It is also an important element that affects the shipping market in terms of fuel costs for freight vessels. As a result, crude oil and freight rates are closely related. Therefore, from January 2009 to June 2019, this study analyzed the dependency structure between oil price (WTI) and freight rates (BDI, BCI, BPI, BSI, and BHI) using daily data. The main results are summarized as follows. First, according to the copula results, survival Gumbel copula in WTI-BDI, Clayton copula in WTI-BCI, Survival Joe copula in WTI-BPI, Joe copula in WTI-BSI, and survival Gumbel copula in WTI-BHI were selected as the best-fitted model. Second, looking at Kendall's tau correlation, there is a positive correlation between BDI and oil price. Furthermore, freight rate index (BCI, BPI, BSI) and oil price show positive dependencies. In particular, the strongest dependence was found in BCI and oil price returns. However, BHI and oil price show a negative dependency. Third, looking at the tail-dependency structure, a pair between oil price and BDI, BCI showed a lower tail-dependency. The pair between oil price and BSI showed the upper tail-dependency.

A Study on Price Discovery Process for International Crude Oil using Error Correction Model and Graph Theory (오차수정모형과 그래프 이론을 이용한 국제유가의 동시 및 단기 가격발견과정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hojeong;Yun, Won-Cheol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.479-504
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    • 2006
  • This paper analyzes a price discovery process for international crude oils including the WTI, Brent and Dubai. Error correction model is employed considering non-stationarity property of crude oil price and the contemporaneous causality is constructed by graph theory to analyze the short-term causality. The empirical analysis for January 4., 1999 to July 15., 2005 reveals that the Brent price interconnects between the WTI price and the Dubai price. This result implies the substantial influence of the Brent price as a marker oil.

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The Inter-correlation Analysis between Oil Prices and Dry Bulk Freight Rates (유가와 벌크선 운임의 상관관계 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Byoung-Churl;Lee, Kee-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-correlation between crude oil prices and Dry Bulk Freight rates. Eco-friendly shipping fuels has being actively developed to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon neutrality will take longer than anticipated in terms of the present development process. Because of OVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crude oil price fluctuation has been exacerbated. So we must examine the impact on Dry Bulk Freight rates the oil prices have had, because oil prices play a major role in shipping fuels. By using the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model with monthly data of crude oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI) and Dry Bulk Freight rates (BDI, BCI and (BP I) 2008.10~2022.02, the empirical analysis documents that the oil prices have an impact on Dry bulk Freight rates. From the analysis of the forecast error variance decomposition, WTI has the largest explanatory relationship with the BDI and Dubai ranks seoond, Brent ranks third. In conclusion, WTI and Dubai have the largest impact on the BDI, while there are some differences according to the ship-type.

A Comparison of TDMA, Dirty Paper Coding, and Beamforming for Multiuser MIMO Relay Networks

  • Li, Jianing;Zhang, Jianhua;Zhang, Yu;Zhang, Ping
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.186-193
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    • 2008
  • A two-hop multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) relay network which comprises a multiple antenna source, an amplify-and-forward MIMO relay and many potential users are studied in this paper. Consider the achievable sum rate as the performance metric, a joint design method for the processing units of the BS and relay node is proposed. The optimal structures are given, which decompose the multiuser MIMO relay channel into several parallel single-input single-output relay channels. With these structures, the signal-to-noise ratio at the destination users is derived; and the power allocation is proved to be a convex problem. We also show that high sum rate can be achieved by pairing each link according to its magnitude. The sum rate of three broadcast strategies, time division multiple access (TDMA) to the strongest user, dirty paper coding (DPC), and beamforming (BF) are investigated. The sum rate bounds of these strategies and the sum capacity (achieved by DPC) gain over TDMA and BF are given. With these results, it can be easily obtained that how far away TDMA and BF are from being optimal in terms of the achievable sum rate.