• 환경영향평가
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.509-520
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 기상조건 변화에 따른 우리나라 $PM_{10}$ 농도변화 범위를 정량적으로 산정하기 위하여, 2010년에서 2014년까지(5년간) 모델의 입력자료인 국내외 배출량을 동일하게 가정하였을 때 기상조건에 따른 우리나라 $PM_{10}$ 농도변화 범위를 분석하였다. 본 분석에 사용된 모델은 WRF(ver.3.8.1)과 CMAQ(ver.5.0.2)이며, 기상 입력자료는 NCEP FNL $1^{\circ}{\times}1^{\circ}$ 자료, 국외 배출량 목록은 MIX 2010, 국내 배출량 목록은 CAPSS 2010을 이용하였다. 모델 모사결과는 2010년의 전국 일평균 $PM_{10}$ 농도에 대해 측정값과 0.82의 R값을 보이며 실제 $PM_{10}$ 농도의 증감경향을 잘 나타냈지만, 모델은 실제 $PM_{10}$ 농도와 비교하여 과소모의 하는 것으로 나타났다. 기상 및 대기질 모델을 통해 모사된 우리나라 연평균 $PM_{10}$ 농도는 기상조건의 변화로 인해 2010년 대비 평균적으로 약 $2.6{\mu}g/m^3$의 농도변화를 나타내었으며, 계절별로는 봄, 여름, 가을, 겨울에 대해 각각 $4.8{\mu}g/m^3$, $1.7{\mu}g/m^3$, $1.7{\mu}g/m^3$, $4.2{\mu}g/m^3$의 표준편차를 나타내며 봄철과 겨울철에 상대적으로 큰 $PM_{10}$ 농도 차이를 나타냈다. 전국 18개 권역을 대상으로한 지역별 분석 결과에서는 기상조건의 변화로 인해 모든 지역에서 연평균 $PM_{10}$ 농도가 $1.0{\mu}g/m^3$ 이상의 표준편차를 나타냈으며, 특히 서울과 경기북부, 경기남부, 강원영서, 충북 지역의 경우 $2.0{\mu}g/m^3$ 이상으로 타 지역에 비해 상대적으로 높은 차이를 나타냈다.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제34권7호
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• pp.669-680
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• 2013

한반도 동남 지역에서 고농도 오존이 발생한 사례에 대해 $NO_x$에 대한 오존의 수반민감도를 살펴보았다. 사례일에 지배적이었던 국지 순환과 고농도 오존을 모의하기 위해 WRF-CMAQ 모델을 사용하였다. 수반민감도 분석을 위해 CMAQ의 수반 모델을 적용하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 고농도 오존에 주변지역이 미친 영향을 살펴본 수용지 중심의 민감도 분석이다. 또한, 행정 구역별 기여도를 정량적으로 산정하였는데, 대구를 수용지로 하는 민감도 분석 결과 영향지역은 대구에 인접하여 포항으로 이어지는 영역과 남동쪽으로 떨어진 넓은 지역으로 나타났다. 첫 번째 영역은 고농도 사례일 당일에 배출된 $NO_x$의 민감도가 주로 나타났고 두 번째 영역은 전 날 배출에 의한 영향이었다. 반면, 부산을 수용지로 한 경우 사례일 당일 주간의 해풍의 영향으로 같은 날의 $NO_x$ 배출 효과 보다는 전 날 배출되었던 농도에 대한 민감도가 더 중요하였다. 민감도 영향지역에 대한 단면도 분석 결과 지표부근의 $NO_x$ 수송과 함께 상층에서 이류되는 영향도 중요하였다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.215-231
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 지상 기상 및 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도, GOCI 위성의 AOD 등 다양한 관측 자료와 WRF-CMAQ 모델링을 통해 2016년과 2017년의 우리나라 가을철 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도변화 원인을 분석하였다. 지상에서 관측된 2017년 전국 평균 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도는 2016년에 비해 약 12.3% ($3.0{\mu}g/m^3$) 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 두 해간 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도 차이는 10월과 11월의 두 사례(사례1: 10월 11일~10월 20일, 사례2: 11월 15일~19일) 기간에 주로 발생하였으며, 2017년의 기상조건이 2016년에 비하여 국외로부터 대기오염물질의 장거리 수송이 어렵고, 국내의 대기환기 효과를 증가시키는 방향으로 변화한 것이 주요한 원인으로 분석되었다. WRF-CMAQ 모델링 시스템을 이용하여 기상조건 변화가 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도에 미치는 정량적인 영향을 평가한 결과, $PM_{2.5}$ 모의농도는 2016년 대비 2017년의 사례1 기간에는 64.0% ($23.1{\mu}g/m^3$) 감소, 사례2 기간에는 35.7% ($12.2{\mu}g/m^3$) 감소한 것으로 나타나, 관측 농도 기반 감소율인 53.6% (사례1)와 47.8% (사례2)에 상응하는 감소율을 보였다. 따라서 기상조건 변화가 우리나라 가을철 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도 변화에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 기상조건 변화로 인한 우리나라 $PM_{2.5}$ 농도 감소에 미친 국내외 기여율은 사례1 기간에 국외로부터의 장거리 수송영향이 52.8% 그리고 대기환기 효과에 따른 국내영향이 47.2% 로 국내외 영향이 유사하게 나타나지만, 사례2 기간에는 국외영향이 66.4% 그리고 국내영향이 33.6%로서 국외영향의 감소효과가 더 크게 나타났다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.339-349
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• 2012

In order to clarify the impact of emissions reductions on the air quality over Metropolitan area of Korean Peninsula, several numerical experiment and analysis of integrated process rate(IPR) of ozone were carried out. Numerical models used in this study are WRF for the estimate the meteorological elements and CMAQ for assessment of ozone concentration. As result in the sensitive test of VOC/NOx reduction experiments, although VOC reduction tends to induce the different impact on the advection and photochemical reaction rate of ozone in urban area and rural area, the mechanism of ozone appeared to be more sensitive to the reduction of VOC than that of NOx over the metropolitan and its surround area. So the control of VOC emission inventories is an effective means to decrease the ozone concentrations around this area.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.1431-1445
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• 2010

In order to clarify the impact of regional warming on the meteorological field and air quality over southeastern part of Korean Peninsula, several numerical experiment were carried out. Numerical models used in this study are WRF for the estimate the meteorological elements and CMAQ for assessment of ozone concentration. According to the global warming impact, initial air temperature were changed and its warming rate reach at 2 degree which was based on the global warming scenarios provided by IPCC. The experiments considering the global warming at initial stage were presented as case T_UP. Air temperature over inland area during night time for case T_UP is higher than that for Base case. During time since the higher temperature over inland area is maintained during daytime more intensified sea breeze should be induced and also decrease the air temperature in vicinity of coast area. In case of T_UP, high level concentrations ozone distribution area was narrowed and their disappearance were faster after 1800LST. As a results, wind and temperature fields due to the global warming at initial stage mainly results in the pattern of ozone concentration and its temporal variation at South-Eastern Part of the Korean Peninsula.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.256-271
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• 2016

The source and transport of the severe Asian dust event (ADE) recently observed in the Korean peninsula were analyzed based on observations (surface weather charts and satellite data) and modeling study (WRF-CMAQ modeling systems). The ADE occurred on 20-21 March 2010 in South Korea with very high $PM_{10}$ concentrations (up to approximately $3,000{\mu}g/m^3$ in Daegu and Jeju). The dominant meteorological conditions affecting the dust outbreak and transport processes were found to be associated with the two synoptic features: (1) strong airflows (i.e., westerlies) induced by a strong pressure gradient resulting from a dense isobar pattern (west-high and east-low) between Tuva Republic and Mongolia and (2) a rapid movement of the strong westerlies merged with airflows generated near Gobi Desert and Inner Mongolia. The merged strong westerlies with a low pressure played a pivotal role in the huge amount of AD and its transport height of 5-8 km. The time and location of dust emissions calculated in the source regions were similar to those observed in the weather charts and satellite image. The ADE simulation mostly showed agreement in the patterns and the concentration levels of modeled dust (including $PM_{10}$) with those of the observations.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.513-525
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• 2016

To propose an effective ensemble methods in predicting $PM_{10}$ concentration, six experiments were designed by different ensemble average methods (e.g., non-weighted, single weighted, and cluster weighted methods). The single weighted method was calculated the weighted value using both multiple regression analysis and singular value decomposition and the cluster weighted method was estimated the weighted value based on temperature, relative humidity, and wind component using multiple regression analysis. The effects of ensemble average methods were significantly better in weighted average than non-weight. The results of ensemble experiments using weighted average methods were distinguished according to methods calculating the weighted value. The single weighted average method using multiple regression analysis showed the highest accuracy for hourly $PM_{10}$ concentration, and the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity showed the highest accuracy for daily mean $PM_{10}$ concentration. However, the result of ensemble spread analysis showed better reliability in the single weighted average method than the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity. Thus, the single weighted average method was the most effective method in this study case.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.259-271
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• 2015

This study conducted analyses on biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emission sources contributing to urban ozone ($O_3$) concentration in Osaka Prefecture, Japan in summer 2010 by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) version 3.5.1 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.1. This prefecture is characterized by highly urbanized area with small forest area. The contributions of source regions surrounding Osaka were estimated by comparing the baseline case and zero-out cases for BVOC emissions from each source region. The zero-out emission runs showed that the BVOC emissions substantially contributed to urban $O_3$ concentration in Osaka (10.3 ppb: 15.9% of mean daily maximum 1-h $O_3$ concentration) with day-by-day variations of contributing source regions, which were qualitatively explained by backward trajectory analyses. Although $O_3$ concentrations were especially high on 23 July and 2 August 2010, the contribution of BVOC on 23 July (35.4 ppb: 25.6% of daily maximum $O_3$) was much larger than that on 2 August (20.9 ppb: 14.2% of daily maximum $O_3$). To investigate this difference, additional zero-out cases for anthropogenic VOC (AVOC) emissions from Osaka and for VOC emissions on the target days were performed. On 23 July, the urban $O_3$ concentration in Osaka was dominantly increased by the transport from the northwestern region outside Osaka with large contribution of $O_3$ that was produced through BVOC reactions by the day before and was retained over the nocturnal boundary layer. On 2 August, the concentration was dominantly increased by the local photochemical production inside Osaka under weak wind condition with the particularly large contribution of AVOC emitted from Osaka on the day.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.11-18
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• 2017

The performance of a modeling system consisting of WRF model v3.3 and CMAQ model v4.7.1 for forecasting $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were evaluated during the period May 2012 through December 2014. Twenty-four hour averages of $PM_{2.5}$ and its major components obtained through filter sampling at the Bulgwang intensive measurement station were used for comparison. The mean predicted $PM_{2.5}$ concentration over the entire period was 68% of the mean measured value. Predicted concentrations for major components were underestimated except for $NO_3{^-}$. The model performance for $PM_{2.5}$ generally tended to degrade with increasing the concentration level. However, the mean fractional bias (MFB) for high concentration above the $80^{th}$ percentile fell within the criteria, the level of accuracy acceptable for standard model applications. Among three bias correction methods, the ratio adjustment was generally most effective in improving the performance. Albeit for limited test conditions, this analysis demonstrated that the effects of bias correction were larger when using the data with a larger bias of predicted values from measurement values.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.591-605
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• 2010

Recirculation of airmass in coastal region occurs because of the change from land to sea breeze and was shown to produce a contrary result on air quality. This study examines the numerical simulation to analyze the effect of recirculation flow in Gwangyang Bay, Korea. For this purpose two case studies are performed by the WRF-FLEXPART-CMAQ modeling system, each for a different Meso-Synoptic Index. Additionally this research make a comparative study of large domain (Domain L) and small domain (Domain S). The horizontal wind fields are simulated from WRF. Changes in the land-sea breeze have an effect on the particle dispersion modeling. The numerical simulation of air quality is carried out to investigate the recirculation of ozone. Ozone is transported to eastward under strong synoptic condition (Case_strong) because of westerly synoptic flow and this pattern can confirm in all domain. However ozone swept off by the land breeze and then transported to northward along sea breeze under conditions of clear sky and weak winds (Case_weak). In this case re-advected ozone isn't simulate in Domain S. The study found that recirculation of airmass must be concerned when numerical simulation of air quality is performed in coastal region, especially on a sunny day.