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http://dx.doi.org/10.5572/KOSAE.2017.33.1.011

Model Performance Evaluation and Bias Correction Effect Analysis for Forecasting PM2.5 Concentrations  

Ghim, Young Sung (Department of Environmental Science, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
Choi, Yongjoo (Department of Environmental Science, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
Kim, Soontae (Department of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Ajou University)
Bae, Chang Han (Department of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Ajou University)
Park, Jinsoo (Air Quality Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research)
Shin, Hye Jung (Air Quality Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment / v.33, no.1, 2017 , pp. 11-18 More about this Journal
Abstract
The performance of a modeling system consisting of WRF model v3.3 and CMAQ model v4.7.1 for forecasting $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were evaluated during the period May 2012 through December 2014. Twenty-four hour averages of $PM_{2.5}$ and its major components obtained through filter sampling at the Bulgwang intensive measurement station were used for comparison. The mean predicted $PM_{2.5}$ concentration over the entire period was 68% of the mean measured value. Predicted concentrations for major components were underestimated except for $NO_3{^-}$. The model performance for $PM_{2.5}$ generally tended to degrade with increasing the concentration level. However, the mean fractional bias (MFB) for high concentration above the $80^{th}$ percentile fell within the criteria, the level of accuracy acceptable for standard model applications. Among three bias correction methods, the ratio adjustment was generally most effective in improving the performance. Albeit for limited test conditions, this analysis demonstrated that the effects of bias correction were larger when using the data with a larger bias of predicted values from measurement values.
Keywords
CMAQ/WRF; Major components; Mean fractional bias; Ratio adjustment;
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