• Title/Summary/Keyword: Volume Uncertainty

Search Result 166, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Multiple Period Forecasting of Motorway Traffic Volumes by Using Big Historical Data (대용량 이력자료를 활용한 다중시간대 고속도로 교통량 예측)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.38 no.1
    • /
    • pp.73-80
    • /
    • 2018
  • In motorway traffic flow control, the conventional way based on real-time response has been changed into advanced way based on proactive response. Future traffic conditions over multiple time intervals are crucial input data for advanced motorway traffic flow control. It is necessary to overcome the uncertainty of the future state in order for forecasting multiple-period traffic volumes, as the number of uncertainty concurrently increase when the forecasting horizon expands. In this vein, multi-interval forecasting of traffic volumes requires a viable approach to conquer future uncertainties successfully. In this paper, a forecasting model is proposed which effectively addresses the uncertainties of future state based on the behaviors of temporal evolution of traffic volume states that intrinsically exits in the big past data. The model selects the past states from the big past data based on the state evolution of current traffic volumes, and then the selected past states are employed for estimating future states. The model was also designed to be suitable for data management systems in practice. Test results demonstrated that the model can effectively overcome the uncertainties over multiple time periods and can generate very reliable predictions in term of prediction accuracy. Hence, it is indicated that the model can be mounted and utilized on advanced data management systems.

Construction of Measuring System for Magnetic Properties Measurement of Azimuth Angle Sensor (방위각센서의 자기특성 측정 장치 제작)

  • Son, Derac
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.22-27
    • /
    • 2014
  • North indicating azimuth angle sensors have been used in airplanes, ships traditionally and nowadays employed in smart phones. For the azimuth and roll angle measurement of the sensor, 3-axis acceleration sensor was added to the 3-axis magnetic field sensor. In this work, we have constructed a measuring system for the measurement of the magnetic field and the angle uncertainty of the magnetic field sensors. Measuring system could be useful not only in non-magnetic laboratory but also in normal laboratory, we constructed small size of 3-axis Helmholtz coils for the compensation environment magnetic field (Earth magnetic field and magnetic field from building) and the generation of magnetic field for the test of magnetic field sensor. The constructed measuring system could compensate environment magnetic field below 10 nT level and generate 3-dimensional magnetic field with magnitude uncertainty of 0.2 % and angle error of $0.2^{\circ}$ within the volume of ${\pm}30mm$ diameter at center of Helmholtz coils. For the conformation of developed measuring system, We tested commercially available 3-axis magnetometer and heading sensor.

Evaluation of flood frequency analysis technique using measured actual discharge data (실측유량 자료를 활용한 홍수량 빈도해석 기법 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Song, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.55 no.5
    • /
    • pp.333-343
    • /
    • 2022
  • For water resource management, the design flood is calculated using the flood frequency analysis technique and the rainfall runoff model. The method by design flood frequency analysis calculates the stochastic design flood by directly analyzing the actual discharge data and is theoretically evaluated as the most accurate method. Actual discharge data frequency analysis of the measured flow was limited due to data limitations in the existing flood flow analysis. In this study, design flood frequency analysis was performed using the measured flow data stably secured through the water level-discharge relationship curve formula. For the frequency analysis of design flood, the parameters were calculated by applying the bayesian inference, and the uncertainty of flood volume by frequency was quantified. It was confirmed that the result of calculating the design flood was close to that calculated by the rainfall-runoff model by applying long-term rainfall data. It is judged that hydrological analysis can be done from various perspectives by using long-term actual flow data through hydrological survey.

The Study on the Effect of Target Volume in DQA based on MLC log file (MLC 로그 파일 기반 DQA에서 타깃 용적에 따른 영향 연구)

  • Shin, Dong Jin;Jung, Dong Min;Cho, Kang Chul;Kim, Ji Hoon;Yoon, Jong Won;Cho, Jeong Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
    • /
    • v.32
    • /
    • pp.53-59
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the difference between the MLC log file-based software (Mobius) and the conventional phantom-ionization chamber (ArcCheck) dose verification method according to the change of target volume. Material and method: Radius 0.25cm, 0.5cm, 1cm, 2cm, 3cm, 4cm, 5cm, 6cm, 7cm, 8cm, 9cm, 10cm with a Sphere-shaped target Twelve plans were created and dose verification using Mobius and ArcCheck was conducted three times each. The irradiated data were compared and analyzed using the point dose error value and the gamma passing rate (3%/3mm) as evaluation indicators. Result: Mobius point dose error values were -9.87% at a radius of 0.25cm and -4.39% at 0.5cm, and the error value was within 3% at the remaining target volume. The gamma passing rate was 95% at a radius of 9cm and 93.9% at 10cm, and a passing rate of more than 95% was shown in the remaining target volume. In ArcCheck, the average error value of the point dose was about 2% in all target volumes. The gamma passing rate also showed a pass rate of 98% or more in all target volumes. Conclusion: For small targets with a radius of 0.5cm or less or a large target with a radius of 9cm or more, considering the uncertainty of DQA based on MLC log files, phantom-ionized DQA is used in complementary ways to include point dose, gamma index, DVH, and target coverage. It is believed that it is desirable to verify the dose delivery through a comprehensive analysis.

Measurement and Monte Carlo Simulation evaluation of a Compton Continuum Suppression with low level soil Sample (저준위 토양시료를 이용한 콤프턴 연속체 억제의 측정 및 몬테카롤로 시뮬레이션 평가)

  • Jang, Eun-Sung;Lee, Hyo-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.123-131
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study compared PENELOPE with measured values from low energy peak to high energy peak to reduce peak to compton ratio and continuum background spectrum using $^{60}Co$, $^{137}Cs$ and mixed volume source. In addition, the change in backscattering and compton edge efficiency was compared with that of PENELOPE through changes in the vicinity of low energy. The results from the mixed volume source are applied to the soil samples to determine how much the minimum detection limits of the soil samples are reduced in the suppression and unsuppressed mode. The compton suppression of the low energy region of $^{60}CO$ (1,173 keV) was considerable, and the Compton edge RF for the $^{137}Cs$ (661 keV) peak was 2.8. In particular, the $^{60}Co$ source emits coincidence gamma rays of 1,173.2 keV and 1,332.5 keV, so compton inhibition was reduced by approximately 21%. RF of compton edges of 1,173 keV and 1,332 keV emitted from a $^{60}Co$ source was 3.2 and 3.4, and the peak to compton edge ratio was improved to 8: 1. And Compared with Penelope, the uncertainty was well within 2%. In compton unsuppressed mode, MDA values of 661 keV, 1,173 keV and 1,332 keV were 0.535, 0.173 and 0.136 Bq/kg, respectively, but decreased in compton suppressed mode to 0.121, 0.00826 and 0.00728 Bq/kg. Thus, Compton suppressed could reduce the background radioactivity and the radioactivity contained in the detector itself.

Development of an Automated Measurement System for Dilution Process and Spraying Amount of Disinfectant

  • Kim, Jung-Chul;Chung, Sun-Ok;Cho, Byoung-Kwan;Chang, Hong-Hee;Kim, Suk;Chang, Dongil
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
    • /
    • v.38 no.4
    • /
    • pp.228-239
    • /
    • 2013
  • Purpose: The objectives of this study were to develop an automated disinfectant dilution system, and an automated data management system for spraying amount for resolving uncertainty problem. Methods: Proper diluting rate was made by a controlled volume pump for liquid disinfectant and a screw conveyer pump for solid disinfectant. The water capacity of disinfecting system of 400 L was controlled by two water level sensors. The water quantity of water tank was controlled by the signals which were produced by the water level sensors. Signals were processed by Labview Programming, and ON/OFF of solenoid valve that was used for controlling water supplying to water tank, was controlled by SSR. The operating time of pumps for disinfectant was controlled quantitatively. A turbine flowmeter was used for development of automated measurement system for spraying amount of disinfectant. In order to save the flowmeter data and to control the spraying system, a multi-function data logger was used, and it was processed and saved in Excel file by a program developed in this study. Results: Labview 2010 was used for programming to control the automated measurement system for spraying amount of disinfectant. Results showed that the relationship between flowmeter value and time had a significant linear relationship such as 0.99 of $R^2$. Generally, 6.74 L/s of diluted disinfectant is sprayed for a vehicle passing through the disinfection system (about 15 seconds). Test results showed that average error between the measured spraying amount and the flowmeter data was 50 mL, and the range of error was 1.3%. Since the amount and time of spraying could be saved in real-time by using the spreadsheet files which could not be modified arbitrarily, it made possible to judge objectively whether the disinfection spraying was performed or not. Test results of spraying liquid and solid disinfectant showed that the errors between the measured discharge rate and the theoretical one were ranged within 3-4% for various dilution rates. Conclusions: The disinfection system developed would be working accurately. The automated spraying data base management system satisfied the purpose of this study. The automated dilution process system developed in this study could discharge liquid and solid disinfectant with accurate dilution rate, relatively.

Analysis of Container Shipping Market Using Multivariate Time Series Models (다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 컨테이너선 시장 분석)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook;Kim, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.61-72
    • /
    • 2019
  • In order to enhance the competitiveness of the container shipping industry and promote its development, based on the empirical analyses using multivariate time series models, this study aims to suggest a few strategies related to the dynamics of the container shipping market. It uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models as analytical methodologies. Additionally, it uses the annual trade volumes, fleets, and freight rates as the dataset. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the most exogenous variable, the trade volume, exerted the highest influence on the total dynamics of the container shipping market. Based on these empirical results, this study suggests some implications for ship investment, freight rate forecasting, and the strategies of shipping firms. Concerning ship investment, since the exogenous trade volume variable contributes most to the uncertainty of freight rates, corporate finance can be considered more appropriate for container ship investment than project finance. Concerning the freight rate forecasting, the VAR and VEC models use the past information and the cointegrating regression model assumes future information, and hence the former models are found better than the latter model. Finally, concerning the strategies of shipping firms, this study recommends the use of cycle-linked repayment scheme and services contract.

Performance Prediction of Landing Gear Considering Uncertain Operating Parameters (운용 파라미터의 불확실성을 고려한 착륙장치 완충성능 해석)

  • Kim, Tae Uk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.37 no.7
    • /
    • pp.921-927
    • /
    • 2013
  • The performance estimation of a landing gear with uncertain parameters is presented. In actual use, many parameters can have certain degrees of variations that affect the energy absorbing performance. For example, the shock strut gas pressure, oil volume, tire pressure, and temperature can deviate from their nominal values. The objective function in this study is the ground reaction during touchdown, which is a function of the abovementioned parameters and time. To consider the uncertain properties, convex modeling and interval analysis are used to calculatethe objective function. The numerical results show that the ground reaction characteristics are quite different from those of the deterministic method. The peak load, which affects the efficiency and structural integrity, is increases considerably when the uncertainties are considered. Therefore, it is important to consider the uncertainties, and the proposed methodology can serve as an efficient method to estimate the effect of such uncertainties.

A Study on the Expressional characteristics of Geometrical Design in the Deconstructive and Experimental Architects (해체 및 실험적 건축가들의 기하학적 디자인 표현 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 황태주
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
    • /
    • no.11
    • /
    • pp.57-63
    • /
    • 1997
  • In the early 20'c, scientific thoughts make a change the absolute and separate concept of space-time into relative concept of continual entity; a kind of ideal world. It suggests that the meaning of geometry as absolute truth with which has endowed human beings would changed to a relative meaning of accumulation in intellectual work on 'nature'. This cognitive changes appeared into absolute arts in 20'c like Cubism, Superematism or Constructivism. De Stijl movement which had recepted the relative concepts like Einstein's 'theory of relativity' as a developed thought from Newton-Cartesian cognition on the world. Abstration would be adequate method for expressing the dynamics and interrelationship between forms and for giving values to indivisual elements in a compositiov. This method had appeared Modern architectural form, as a common framework. The expression characteristics of geometrical design in Deconstructive and Experimental architecture were summerized in four features through the results of the analysis. First, the relation of architectural element and intertextuality is expressed in discontinuation of context and refusal of functional building. Second, the concept of trace expresses as connection of place, decomposing of excavation of trace, trace of axis, trace of fragments. Third, anti-gravity expression is there to express of open cubic, to outgrow of rectangular system, to outgrow of volume, to separate of ground connectiov. Fourth, the complex composition of abstracted geometric form is these to abstracted geometry about indefinite shape, to layer through the overlap and collage, to de-meaning and amusement of form through the pursuit of uncertainty, to indeterminate of formal meaning through operation and composition of similar form cause to the diverse of meaning.

  • PDF

A Study on the Zinc Intake and Urinary Excretion of Preschool Children in Busan (부산지역 학령전 아동의 아연 섭취 및 소변 중 배설실태에 관한 연구)

  • 임화재
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.36 no.9
    • /
    • pp.950-959
    • /
    • 2003
  • To assess zinc status by dietary intake and urinary excretion of preschool children in Busan and to evaluate the relationship of intakes of food and nutrient with urinary zinc excretion, zinc food frequencies of 40 common foods affecting intakes of zinc by food fequency method, nutrient intake by 24hr recall and 24hr urinary zinc excretion were measured with 97 preschool children. The mean zinc intake was 4.29 mg and 43.0% of RDA. The mean zinc intake per 1,000 kcal was 3.09 mg.97.9% of subjects had zinc intake less than 75% of RDA. Grains food group was the primary source of zinc intake and supplied 38.9% of the total daily zinc intake. Altogether, plant food products supplied 49.7% of zinc intake. The mean urinary zinc excretion and zinc excretion per gram of creatinine were 0.19 mg and 1.00 mg respectively. The urinary zinc excretion showed positive significant correlations with height and weight (p < 0.05, p < 0.05) , urine volume and urinary creatinine excretion (p < 0.05, p < 0.001) , urinary zinc excretion per creatinine (p < 0.001) , urinary zinc excretion per weight (p < 0.001) , intakes of energy and carbohydrate (p < 0.05, p < 0.01) and usual intake of zinc from eggs food group (p < 0.05) . In conclusion, these results show that the zinc intake of preschool children is low and that sources of dietary zinc are mainly plant foods, suggesting low bioavailability. So nutritional education is needed in order to inc-rease usual intake of animal food group. Interpretation of urinary zinc excretion data is complicated by current uncertainty about "normal" zinc level at this age group. Further studies are needed to obtain extensive data on urinary zinc excretion for this age group.age group.