• 토지주택연구
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.367-377
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• 2011

본 연구는 지난 2008년 리먼사태로 인한 글로벌 금융위기 이후 부동산가격의 결정요인이 어떻게 변화하는지를 VAR모형을 통해 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 2000년 1분기부터 2011년 2분기까지의 전국 토지, 주택매매, 주택전세 등 부동산가격에 대해 실질GDP, 국고채수익률, 소비자물가, KOSPI, 주택건설실적, 토지가격 등을 이용하여 VAR모형을 구축하고 충격반응 및 분산분해 분석을 실시하였다. 금융위기 이후의 변화행태를 분석하기 위해 글로벌 금융위기가 발생한 2008년 3분기를 기준으로 이전과 현재까지로 분석기간을 나누어 가격결정요인 변화를 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과, 토지가격은 금융위기 이전과 비교할 때 실질GDP와 금리의 영향력은 더 커진 것으로 나타났다. 이는 토지가격이 과거에 비해 거시경제여건에 더욱 민감하게 반응하게 되었다는 사실을 보여준다. 주택매매가격도 금리나 GDP와 같이 시장기본가치에 대해 거의 영향을 받지 않고, 주택가격 자체의 변화나 전세가격의 변화에 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 최근의 전세가격 급등세가 지속되고 있음을 감안할 때 매매가격도 조만간 상승할 가능성이 크다고 예상할 수 있는 부분이다. 주택전세가격은 금융위기 이전이나 이후 모두 거시경제지표의 영향력이 약화되고, 소비자물가나 전세가격 자체의 변화에 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 부동산가격이 과거와 달리 금리, GDP 등 시장기본가치요인의 중요성이 약화된 것을 알 수 있는데, 이는 부동산시장이 금융위기 이후 인구 가구구조 변화나 가격상승 기대심리 약화, 월세전환 등 경제 외적 요인에 크게 영향을 받는 쪽으로 변화했음을 보여주는 것이라 할 수 있다. 따라서 정책당국이나 소비자, 건설업체 등 경제주체들은 경제 환경 뿐 아니라 수급상황 등 시장내부요인을 감안하여 보다 신중하게 시장에 접근할 필요가 있을 것이다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.21-28
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• 2018

최근 셰일가스 생산량의 급증에 따른 유 가스 가격 하락이 셰일가스 생산의 채산성 악화를 초래하여 셰일가스 개발 시 신뢰성 있는 경제성 평가가 중요해졌다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 확률론적 분석 기법 중 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 셰일가스 개발 시 수반되는 불확실성을 고려한 경제성 분석을 수행하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 주요 변수들의 범위를 설정한 후 난수를 발생시켜 순현재가치(Net Present Value, NPV)와 내부수익률(Internal Rate of Return, IRR)의 확률분포를 도출하였고, 연구대상지역에서의 셰일가스 개발 시 사업 타당성이 긍정적으로 판단되는 확률을 추정하였다. 또한 셰일가스 개발 시 경제성에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하여 상업적인 생산을 위한 경제성 평가 시 주요 변수들의 영향을 파악하였다. 향후 대상지역의 경제성 지표 변동범위와 확률 값을 도출하는 이 연구의 결과는 셰일가스 생산을 위한 의사결정에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.60-68
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• 2010

In this study, the seepage flow monitoring method by hydaulic head loss rate graph was developed for the purpose of monitoring the seepage flow from the see side or from the lake on sea dike in which seepage force was varied periodically. The hydraulic head loss rate was defined in this method. The value of the rate is in the range from 0 to 1. the value of 0 means perfectly free flow of seepage. the value of 1 means perfect waterproofing. The value of coefficient of determination in the hydraulic head loss rate graph closer to 1 means that the seepage flow way is stable. The value of coefficient of determination in the hydraulic head loss rate graph closer to 0 means that the hole may exist or the piping may be in the progress. The pore water pressure data measured in Saemangeum sea dike was analyzed with the developed method The result showed that the variation of seepage flow state was detected sensitively by this method and the interception effect of sea dike could be estimated quantitatively.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권9호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 제36회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.480-482
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• 2005

In this paper, utilization of load duration curves is presented for analyzing the effect of load power factor and determining the value of load power factor effectively. In addition, the power factor sensitivity of generation cost and integrated costs including voltage variation penalty cost are used for determining the value of the load power factor from the point of view of voltage regulation and economic investment. It is shown through the application to the KEPCO power system that the load power factor can be enhanced effectively and appropriately using the load duration curve.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제18권36호
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• pp.275-285
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• 1995

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the issue of process centering in manufacturing process, The traditional process capability indices Cp, Cpk and Cpu are used to provide measure of process performance, but these indices do not represent the issue of process centering. A new measure of the process capability index Cpm is proposed that takes into account the proximity to the target value as well as the process variation when assessing process performance. However, Cpm only considers acceptance cost for deviation from target value within specification limits, do not includes economic consideration for rejected items. This paper proposes flexible process performance measures that considered quadratic loss function caused by quality deviation within specification limits, rejection cost associated with the disposition of rejected items, and inspection cost. In this model disposition of rejected items are considered under perfect corrective procedures and the absence of perfect corrective procedures.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.18-24
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• 2005

Various problems such as the increase of the power loss and the voltage instability may often occur in the case of low load power factor. The demand of reactive power increases continuously with the growth of active power and the restructuring of electric power companies makes the comprehensive management of reactive power a troublesome problem, so that the systematic control of load power factor is required. In this paper, the load power factor sensitivity of the generation cost is derived and it is used for determining the locations of reactive power compensation devices effectively and for enhancing the load power factor appropriately. In addition, the voltage variation penalty cost is introduced and the integrated costs including the voltage variation penalty cost are used for determining the value of the load power factor from the point of view of the economic investment and voltage regulation. It is shown through the application to a large-scale power system that the load power factor can be enhanced effectively and appropriately using the load power factor sensitivity and integrated costs.

• 대기
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.405-420
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• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.209-228
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• 2020

본 연구의 목적은 코로나19의 확산에 따른 한국의 무역 및 산업의 변화를 글로벌가치사슬 관점에서 분석하고 시사점을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해 코로나19와 직접적으로 관련 있는 방역용품과 GVC 참여도가 높은 IT산업을 분석하였다. 방역용품은 코로나19의 확산에 따라 수출입 변동 폭이 컸다. 마스크의 경우 최종재는 수출입이 급격히 변화했지만 중간재의 변화는 상대적으로 크지 않았다. 한국의 IT산업은 GVC에서 전방참여도가 높아지고 후방참여도가 낮아지는 전반적인 변화 속에서 주요 무역대상국별로 차별화된 특성을 보였다. 아직까지 코로나19로 인한 변화가 직접적으로 나타나지는 않았지만, 중국, 베트남과의 생산 연계와 무역 의존도가 높은 상황에서 다변화 전략의 필요성이 높아졌다. 코로나19는 여전히 진행 중으로 포스트 코로나 시대의 GVC 변화에 대응하기 위한 기업의 전략과 정책적 노력이 필요하다.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.305-328
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• 1991

Pig breeding programs have been very successful in the improvement of animals by the simple expedient of focusing on a few traits of economic importance, particularly growth efficiency and leanness. Further reductions in leanness may become more difficult to achieve, due to reduced genetic variation, and less desirable, due to adverse correlated effects on meat and eating quality. Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of breeding values makes possible the incorporation of data from many sources and increases the value of including traits such as sow performance in the breeding objective. Advances in technology, such as electronic animal identification, electronic feeders, improved ultrasonic scanners and automated data capture at slaughter houses, increase the number of sources of information that can be included in breeding value predictions. Breeding program structures will evolve to reflect these changes and a common structure is likely to be several or many breeding farms genetically linked by A.i., with data collected on a number of traits from many sources and integrated into a single breeding value prediction using BLUP. Future developments will include the production of a porcine gene map which may make it possible to identify genes controlling economically valuable traits, such as those for litter size in the Meishan, and introgress them into nucleus populations. Genes identified from the gene map or from other sources will provide insight into the genetic basis of performance and may provide the raw material from which transgenic programs will channel additional genetic variance into nucleus populations undergoing selection.