• Title/Summary/Keyword: Variable Order Markov Model

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A Study on the Modeling and Analysis of Cell Delay Variation Compensation using Variable Timestamp Method in the Satellite TDMA Transmission (위성 TDMA 전송에서 가변타임스탬프 방식의 셀 지연변이 보상의 모델과 해석)

  • 김정호;박진양
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Industry Society
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    • v.2 no.11
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    • pp.1395-1406
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    • 2001
  • In order to cover a widespread service range, terrestrial/satellite-mixed network is being combined with terrestrial ATM network. This dissertation analyzes and investigates several previously existent CDV compensation methods in order to compensate CDV arising from interfacing satellite TDMA and ATM. Specifically to supplement the problems of timestamp and cell number counting methods, new Variable Timestamp method for CDV compensation is proposed. To evaluate the proposed method, MMPP(Markov Modulated Poisson Process), which can express VBR service very well, is selected as a cell input traffic model of terrestrial transmitting earth station. After several simulation, it is also confirmed that CDV compensation capability for VBR services is very superior to the cell number counting method. In this case, as the timestamp number Nts increases, CDV compensation capability increases, and the CDV distribution length is reduced.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy of Asphalt Road Pavement by Region (아스팔트 도로포장의 균열률에 대한 지역별 기대수명 추정)

  • Song, Hyun Yeop;Choi, Seung Hyun;Han, Dae Seok;Do, Myung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2021
  • Since future maintenance cost estimation of infrastructure involves uncertainty, it is important to make use of a failure prediction model. However, it is difficult for local governments to develop accurate failure prediction models applicable to infrastructure due to a lack of budget and expertise. Therefore, this study estimated the life expectancy of asphalt road pavement of national highways using the Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model. In addition, in order to accurately estimate life expectancy, environmental variables such as traffic volume, ESAL (Equivalent Single Axle Loads), SNP (Structural Number of Pavement), meteorological conditions, and de-icing material usage were applied to retain reliability of the estimation results. As a result, life expectancy was estimated from at least 13.09 to 19.61 years by region. By using this approach, it is expected that it will be possible to estimate future maintenance cost considering local failure characteristics.

Economic-Statistical Design of VSI Run Rules Charts (VSI 런-규칙 관리도의 경제적-통계적 설계)

  • Kang, Bun-Kyu;Lim, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.190-201
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    • 2010
  • This research proposes a method for designing VSI (Variable Sampling Interval) control charts with supplementary run rules. The basic idea is to apply various run rules and the VSI scheme to a control chart in order to increase the sensitivity. The sampling process of the VSI run rules chart is constructed by Markov chain approach. A procedure for designing the VSI run rules chart is proposed based on Lorenzen and Vance's model. Sensitivity study shows that the VSI run rules charts outperform the FSI (Fixed Sampling Interval) run rules charts for wide range of process mean shifts. A major advantage of the VSI run rules chart over other charts such as CUSUM, EWMA, and adaptive charts is it's simplicity in implementation. Some useful guidelines are proposed based on the sensitivity study.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Economic-Statistical Design of VSSI$\bar{X}$ Control Charts Considering Two Assignable Causes (두 개의 이상원인을 고려한 VSSI$\bar{X}$ 관리도의 경제적-통계적 설계)

  • Lee, Ho-Joong;Lim, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2005
  • This research investigates economic-statistical characteristics of variable sampling size and interval (VSSI)$\bar{X}$charts under two assignable causes. A Markov chain approach is employed in order to calculate average run length (ARL) and average time to signal (ATS). Six transient states are derived by carefully defining the state. A steady state cost rate function is constructed based on Lorenzen and Vance(1986) model. The cost rate function is optimized with respect to six design parameters for designing the VSSI $\bar{X}$ charts. Computational experiments show that the VSSI $\bar{X}$ chart is superior to the Shewhart $\bar{X}$ chart in the economic-statistical sense, even under two assignable causes. A comparative study shows that the cost rate may increase up to almost 30% by overlooking the second cause. Critical input parameters are also derived from a sensitivity study and a few guideline graphs are provided for determining the design parameters.

Improvement of AMR Data Compression Using the Context Tree Weighting Method (Context Tree Weighting을 이용한 AMR 음성 데이터 압축 성능 개선)

  • Lee, Eun-su;Oh, Eun-ju;Yoo, Hoon
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2020
  • This paper proposes an algorithm to improve the compression performance of the adaptive multi-rate (AMR) speech coding using the context tree weighting (CTW) method. AMR is the voice encoding standard adopted by IMT-2000, and supports 8 transmission rates from 4.75 kbit/s to 12.2 kbit/s to cope with changes in the channel condition. CTW as a kind of the arithmetic coding, uses a variable-order Markov model. Considering that CTW operates bit by bit, we propose an algorithm that re-orders AMR data and compresses them with CTW. To verify the validity of the proposed algorithm, an experiment is conducted to compare the proposed algorithm with existing compression methods including ZIP in terms of compression ratio. Experimental results indicate that the average additional compression rate in AMR data is about 3.21% with ZIP and about 9.10% with the proposed algorithm. Thus our algorithm improves the compression performance of AMR data by about 5.89%.

Drone Location Tracking with Circular Microphone Array by HMM (HMM에 의한 원형 마이크로폰 어레이 적용 드론 위치 추적)

  • Jeong, HyoungChan;Lim, WonHo;Guo, Junfeng;Ahmad, Isitiaq;Chang, KyungHi
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2020
  • In order to reduce the threat by illegal unmanned aerial vehicles, a tracking system based on sound was implemented. There are three main points to the drone acoustic tracking method. First, it scans the space through variable beam formation to find a sound source and records the sound using a microphone array. Second, it classifies it into a hidden Markov model (HMM) to find out whether the sound source exists or not, and finally, the sound source is In the case of a drone, a sound source recorded and stored as a tracking reference signal based on an adaptive beam pattern is used. The simulation was performed in both the ideal condition without background noise and interference sound and the non-ideal condition with background noise and interference sound, and evaluated the tracking performance of illegal drones. The drone tracking system designed the criteria for determining the presence or absence of a drone according to the improvement of the search distance performance according to the microphone array performance and the degree of sound pattern matching, and reflected in the design of the speech reading circuit.