• Title/Summary/Keyword: Validity test

Search Result 3,237, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-146
    • /
    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

Research on The Utility of Acquisition of Oblique Views of Bilateral Orbit During the Dacryoscintigraphy (눈물길 조영검사 시 양측 안 와 사위 상 획득의 유용성에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jwa-Woo;Lee, Bum-Hee;Park, Seung-Hwan;Park, Su-Young;Jung, Chan-Wook;Ryu, Hyung-Gi;Kim, Ho-Shin
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.76-81
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose: Diversity and the lachrymal duct deformities and the passage inside the nasal cavity except for anterior image such as epiphora happens during the test were able to express more precisely during the dacryoscintigraphy. Also, we thought about the necessity of a method to classify the passage into the naso-lachrymal duct from epiphora. Therefore, we are to find the validity of the method to obtain both oblique views except for anterior views. Materials and Methods: The targets of this research are 78 patients with epiphora due to the blockage at the lachrymal duct from January 2013 to August 2013. Average age was $56.96{\pm}13.36$. By using a micropipette, we dropped 1-2 drops of $^{99m}TcO4^-$ of 3.7 MBq (0.1 mCi) with $10{\mu}L$ of each drop into the inferior conjunctival fold, then we performed dynamic check for 20 minutes with 20 frames of each minute. In case of we checked the passage from both eyes to nasal cavity immediately after the dynamic check, we obtained oblique view immediately. If we didn't see the passage in either side of the orbit, we obtained oblique views of the orbit after checking the frontal film in 40 minutes. The instrument we used was Pin-hole Collimator with Gamma Camera(Siemens Orbiter, Hoffman Estates, IL, USA). Results: Among the 78 patients with dacryoscintigraphy, 35 patients were confirmed with passage into the nasal cavity from the anterior view. Among those 35 patients, 15 patients were confirmed with passage into the nasal cavity on both eyes, and it was able to observe better passage patterns through oblique view with a result of 8 on both eyes, 2 on left eye, and 1 on right eye. 20 patients had passage in left eye or right eye, among those patients 10 patients showed clear passage compared to the anterior view. 13 patients had possible passage, and 30 patients had no proof of motion of the tracer. To sum up, 21 patients (60%) among 35 patients showed clear pattern of passage with additional oblique views compared to anterior view. People responded obtaining oblique views though 5 points scale about the utility of passage identification helps make diagnoses the passage, passage delayed, and blockage of naso-lachrymal duct by showing the well-seen portions from anterior view. Also, when classifying passage to naso-lachrymal duct and flow to the skin, oblique views has higher chance of classification in case of epiphora (anterior:$4.14{\pm}0.3$, oblique:$4.55{\pm}0.4$). Conclusion: It is considered that if you obtain oblique views of the bilateral orbits in addition to anterior view during the dacryoscintigraphy, the ability of diagnose for reading will become higher because you will be able to see the areas that you could not observe from the anterior view so that you can see if it emitted after the naso-lachrymal duct and the flow of epiphora on the skin.

  • PDF

A Study on the Market Structure Analysis for Durable Goods Using Consideration Set:An Exploratory Approach for Automotive Market (고려상표군을 이용한 내구재 시장구조 분석에 관한 연구: 자동차 시장에 대한 탐색적 분석방법)

  • Lee, Seokoo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.157-176
    • /
    • 2012
  • Brand switching data frequently used in market structure analysis is adequate to analyze non- durable goods, because it can capture competition between specific two brands. But brand switching data sometimes can not be used to analyze goods like automobiles having long term duration because one of main assumptions that consumer preference toward brand attributes is not changed against time can be violated. Therefore a new type of data which can precisely capture competition among durable goods is needed. Another problem of using brand switching data collected from actual purchase behavior is short of explanation why consumers consider different set of brands. Considering above problems, main purpose of this study is to analyze market structure for durable goods with consideration set. The author uses exploratory approach and latent class clustering to identify market structure based on heterogeneous consideration set among consumers. Then the relationship between some factors and consideration set formation is analyzed. Some benefits and two demographic variables - age and income - are selected as factors based on consumer behavior theory. The author analyzed USA automotive market with top 11 brands using exploratory approach and latent class clustering. 2,500 respondents are randomly selected from the total sample and used for analysis. Six models concerning market structure are established to test. Model 1 means non-structured market and model 6 means market structure composed of six sub-markets. It is exploratory approach because any hypothetical market structure is not defined. The result showed that model 1 is insufficient to fit data. It implies that USA automotive market is a structured market. Model 3 with three market structures is significant and identified as the optimal market structure in USA automotive market. Three sub markets are named as USA brands, Asian Brands, and European Brands. And it implies that country of origin effect may exist in USA automotive market. Comparison between modal classification by derived market structures and probabilistic classification by research model was conducted to test how model 3 can correctly classify respondents. The model classify 97% of respondents exactly. The result of this study is different from those of previous research. Previous research used confirmatory approach. Car type and price were chosen as criteria for market structuring and car type-price structure was revealed as the optimal structure for USA automotive market. But this research used exploratory approach without hypothetical market structures. It is not concluded yet which approach is superior. For confirmatory approach, hypothetical market structures should be established exhaustively, because the optimal market structure is selected among hypothetical structures. On the other hand, exploratory approach has a potential problem that validity for derived optimal market structure is somewhat difficult to verify. There also exist market boundary difference between this research and previous research. While previous research analyzed seven car brands, this research analyzed eleven car brands. Both researches seemed to represent entire car market, because cumulative market shares for analyzed brands exceeds 50%. But market boundary difference might affect the different results. Though both researches showed different results, it is obvious that country of origin effect among brands should be considered as important criteria to analyze USA automotive market structure. This research tried to explain heterogeneity of consideration sets among consumers using benefits and two demographic factors, sex and income. Benefit works as a key variable for consumer decision process, and also works as an important criterion in market segmentation. Three factors - trust/safety, image/fun to drive, and economy - are identified among nine benefit related measure. Then the relationship between market structures and independent variables is analyzed using multinomial regression. Independent variables are three benefit factors and two demographic factors. The result showed that all independent variables can be used to explain why there exist different market structures in USA automotive market. For example, a male consumer who perceives all benefits important and has lower income tends to consider domestic brands more than European brands. And the result also showed benefits, sex, and income have an effect to consideration set formation. Though it is generally perceived that a consumer who has higher income is likely to purchase a high priced car, it is notable that American consumers perceived benefits of domestic brands much positive regardless of income. Male consumers especially showed higher loyalty for domestic brands. Managerial implications of this research are as follow. Though implication may be confined to the USA automotive market, the effect of sex on automotive buying behavior should be analyzed. The automotive market is traditionally conceived as male consumers oriented market. But the proportion of female consumers has grown over the years in the automotive market. It is natural outcome that Volvo and Hyundai motors recently developed new cars which are targeted for women market. Secondly, the model used in this research can be applied easier than that of previous researches. Exploratory approach has many advantages except difficulty to apply for practice, because it tends to accompany with complicated model and to require various types of data. The data needed for the model in this research are a few items such as purchased brands, consideration set, some benefits, and some demographic factors and easy to collect from consumers.

  • PDF

The ages and stages questionnaire: screening for developmental delay in the setting of a pediatric outpatient clinic (ASQ :소아과외래에서의 발달지연 선별검사)

  • Kim, Eun Young;Sung, In Kyung
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
    • /
    • v.50 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1061-1066
    • /
    • 2007
  • Purpose : Early identification of developmental disabilities allows intervention at the earliest possible point to improve the developmental potential. The Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), a parent- completed questionnaire, can be used as a substitute for formal screening tests. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of the Korean version of the ASQ (K-ASQ) as a screening tool for detecting developmental delay of young Korean children in the setting of a busy pediatric outpatient clinic. Methods : Parents completed the K-ASQ in the waiting room of the pediatric outpatient clinic of St. Mary's Hospital, Catholic University Medical College. Out of 150 completed the ASQ, 67 who were born term and had no previous diagnosis of developmental delay, congenital anomalies, or neurological abnormalities were enrolled. The cut-off values of less than 2 standard deviations (SD) below the mean for the ASQ were used to define a "fail", and children who failed in one or more domains tested were classified as "screen-positive". Diagnosis of developmental delay was made when the developmental indices fell below -1 SD of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II. Results : (1) The mean age of children was $16.4{\pm}7.4$ months. Ten children (14.9%) were small-for- gestational age infants. The mean birth weight and gestational age were $3.1{\pm}0.6kg$ and $38.8{\pm}1.4$ weeks. Nine children (13.4%) were twins and 33 (49.0%) were male. The mean maternal education in years was $13.6{\pm}2.4$, and 31.3% had full-time jobs. The time for completing the ASQ was $10.2{\pm}3.0$ minutes. (2) Seventeen children (25.4%) were classified as screen-positive, four of them were delayed in development. Among eight children diagnosed with developmental delay, four were screen-positive and the other four were screen-negative by the ASQ. (3) The test characteristics of the ASQ were as follows: sensitivity (50.0%); specificity (78.0%); positive predictive value (23.5%); negative predictive value (92.0%). Conclusion : The high negative predictive value of the K-ASQ supports its use as a screening tool for developmental delay in the setting of a pediatric outpatient clinic.

The Role of Social Capital and Identity in Knowledge Contribution in Virtual Communities: An Empirical Investigation (가상 커뮤니티에서 사회적 자본과 정체성이 지식기여에 미치는 역할: 실증적 분석)

  • Shin, Ho Kyoung;Kim, Kyung Kyu;Lee, Un-Kon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.53-74
    • /
    • 2012
  • A challenge in fostering virtual communities is the continuous supply of knowledge, namely members' willingness to contribute knowledge to their communities. Previous research argues that giving away knowledge eventually causes the possessors of that knowledge to lose their unique value to others, benefiting all except the contributor. Furthermore, communication within virtual communities involves a large number of participants with different social backgrounds and perspectives. The establishment of mutual understanding to comprehend conversations and foster knowledge contribution in virtual communities is inevitably more difficult than face-to-face communication in a small group. In spite of these arguments, evidence suggests that individuals in virtual communities do engage in social behaviors such as knowledge contribution. It is important to understand why individuals provide their valuable knowledge to other community members without a guarantee of returns. In virtual communities, knowledge is inherently rooted in individual members' experiences and expertise. This personal nature of knowledge requires social interactions between virtual community members for knowledge transfer. This study employs the social capital theory in order to account for interpersonal relationship factors and identity theory for individual and group factors that may affect knowledge contribution. First, social capital is the relationship capital which is embedded within the relationships among the participants in a network and available for use when it is needed. Social capital is a productive resource, facilitating individuals' actions for attainment. Nahapiet and Ghoshal (1997) identify three dimensions of social capital and explain theoretically how these dimensions affect the exchange of knowledge. Thus, social capital would be relevant to knowledge contribution in virtual communities. Second, existing research has addressed the importance of identity in facilitating knowledge contribution in a virtual context. Identity in virtual communities has been described as playing a vital role in the establishment of personal reputations and in the recognition of others. For instance, reputation systems that rate participants in terms of the quality of their contributions provide a readily available inventory of experts to knowledge seekers. Despite the growing interest in identities, however, there is little empirical research about how identities in the communities influence knowledge contribution. Therefore, the goal of this study is to better understand knowledge contribution by examining the roles of social capital and identity in virtual communities. Based on a theoretical framework of social capital and identity theory, we develop and test a theoretical model and evaluate our hypotheses. Specifically, we propose three variables such as cohesiveness, reciprocity, and commitment, referring to the social capital theory, as antecedents of knowledge contribution in virtual communities. We further posit that members with a strong identity (self-presentation and group identification) contribute more knowledge to virtual communities. We conducted a field study in order to validate our research model. We collected data from 192 members of virtual communities and used the PLS method to analyse the data. The tests of the measurement model confirm that our data set has appropriate discriminant and convergent validity. The results of testing the structural model show that cohesion, reciprocity, and self-presentation significantly influence knowledge contribution, while commitment and group identification do not significantly influence knowledge contribution. Our findings on cohesion and reciprocity are consistent with the previous literature. Contrary to our expectations, commitment did not significantly affect knowledge contribution in virtual communities. This result may be due to the fact that knowledge contribution was voluntary in the virtual communities in our sample. Another plausible explanation for this result may be the self-selection bias for the survey respondents, who are more likely to contribute their knowledge to virtual communities. The relationship between self-presentation and knowledge contribution was found to be significant in virtual communities, supporting the results of prior literature. Group identification did not significantly affect knowledge contribution in this study, inconsistent with the wealth of research that identifies group identification as an important factor for knowledge sharing. This conflicting result calls for future research that examines the role of group identification in knowledge contribution in virtual communities. This study makes a contribution to theory development in the area of knowledge management in general and virtual communities in particular. For practice, the results of this study identify the circumstances under which individual factors would be effective for motivating knowledge contribution to virtual communities.

  • PDF

Validity Test for Molecular Markers Associated with Resistance to Phytophthora Root Rot in Chili Pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) (고추의 역병 저항성과 연관된 분자표지의 효용성 검정)

  • Lee, Won-Phil;Lee, Jun-Dae;Han, Jung-Heon;Kang, Byoung-Cheorl;Yoon, Jae-Bok
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.64-72
    • /
    • 2012
  • Phytophthora root rot has been causing a serious yield loss in pepper production. Since 2004, the year in which commercial cultivars resistant to the disease were firstly commercialized, it has been necessary to introduce the resistance into domestic pepper cultivars for dried red pepper. Therefore, developing molecular markers linked to the resistance is required for an accurate selection of resistant plants and increasing breeding efficiency. Until now, several markers associated with the major dominant gene resistant to Phytophthora root rot have been reported but they have some serious limitations for their usage. In this study, we aimed to develop molecular markers linked to the major dominant gene that can be used for almost of all genetic resources resistant to Phytophthora root rot. Two segregating $F_2$ populations derived from a 'Subicho' ${\times}$ 'CM334' combination and a commercial cultivar 'Dokyacheongcheong' were used to develop molecular markers associated with the resistance. After screening 1,024 AFLP primer combinations with bulked segregant analysis, three AFLP (AFLP1, AFLP2, and AFLP3) markers were identified and converted into three CAPS markers (M1-CAPS, M2-CAPS, and M3-CAPS), respectively. Among them, M3-CAPS marker was further studied in ten resistants, fourteen susceptibles, five hybrids and 53 commercial cultivars. As a result, M3-CAPS marker was more fitted to identify Phytophthora resistance than previously reported P5-SNAP and Phyto5.2-SCAR markers. The result indicated that the M3-CAPS marker will be useful for resistance breeding to Phytophthora root rot in chili pepper.

Trends and Prospects of N. Korea Military Provocations After the Sinking of ROKS Cheon-an (천안함 폭침 이후 북한의 군사도발 양상과 전망)

  • Kim, Sung-Man
    • Strategy21
    • /
    • s.34
    • /
    • pp.58-92
    • /
    • 2014
  • Even after S. Korea took 5.24 Measure(24 May 2014), N. Korea has not stopped raising provocations such as the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, electronic and cyber attacks. To make matters worse, the communist country lunched long-range missiles(twice) and conducted 3rd nuclear test, escalating tensions which could possibly lead to an all-out war. Korean Government failed to respond properly. However, escalation into an all-out war was deterred by the CFC immediately carrying out its peacetime duty(CODA). The US made a rapid dispatch of its augmentation forces(Aircraft carrier, nuclear-powered submarine, strategic bomber, F-22) to the Korean Peninsula. In recognition of the importance of the Combined Forces Command, since May 2013 the Park Geun-Hye Administration has been pushing ahead with re-postponement of Wartime Operational Control Transfer(which initially meant the disassembling of the CFC as of 1 December 2015) More recently, there has been a series of unusual indicators from the North. Judging from its inventory of 20 nuclear weapons, 1,000 ballistic missiles and biochemical weapons, it is safe to say that N. Korea has gained at least war deterrence against S. Korea. Normally a nation with nuclear weapons shrink its size of conventional forces, but the North is pursuing the opposite, rather increasing them. In addition, there was a change of war plan by N. Korea in 2010, changing 'Conquering the Korean Peninsula' to 'Negotiation after the seizure of the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area(GSMA)' and establishing detailed plans for wartime projects. The change reflects the chain reaction in which requests from pro-north groups within the South will lead to the proclamation of war. Kim, Jeong-Un, leader of N. Korean regime, sent threatening messages using words such as 'exercising a nuclear preemptive strike right' and 'burning of Seoul'. Nam, Jae-June, Director of National Intelligence Service, stated that Kim, Jung-Un is throwing big talks, saying communization of the entire Korean Peninsula will come within the time frame of 3 years. Kim, Gwan-Jin, Defense Minister, shared an alarming message that there is a high possibility that the North will raise local provocations or a full-fledged war whenever while putting much emphasis on defense posture. As for the response concept of the Korean Government, it has been decided that 'ROK·US Combined Local Provocation Counter-Measure' will be adopted to act against local provocations from the North. Major provocation types include ▲ violation of the Northern Limit Line(NLL) with mobilization of military ships ▲ artillery provocations on Northwestern Islands ▲ low altitude airborne intrusion ▲ rear infiltration of SOF ▲ local conflicts within the Military Demarcation Line(MDL) ▲ attacking friendly ships by submarines. Counter-measures currently established by the US involves the support from USFK and USFJ. In order to keep the sworn promise, the US is reinforcing both USFK and USFJ. An all-out war situation will be met by 'CFC OPLAN5027' and 'Tailored Expansion Deterrence Forces' with the CFC playing a central role. The US augmentation forces stands at 690,000 troops, some 160 ships, 2,000 aircraft and this comprise 50% of US total forces, which is estimated to be ninefold of Korean forces. The CFC needs to be in center in handling both local provocations and an all-out war situation. However, the combat power of S. Korean conventional forces is approximately around 80% of that of N. Korea, which has been confirmed from comments made by Kim, Gwan-Jin, Defense Minister, during an interpellation session at the National Assembly. This means that S. Korean forces are not much growing. In particular, asymmetric capabilities of the North is posing a serious threat to the South including WMD, cyber warfare forces, SOF, forces targeting 5 Northwestern Islands, sub-surface and amphibious assault forces. The presence of such threats urgently requires immediate complementary efforts. For complementary efforts, the Korean Government should consider ① reinforcement of Korean forces; putting a stoppage to shrinking military, acquisition of adequate defense budget, building a missile defense and military leadership structure validity review, ② implementation of military tasks against the North; disciplinary measures on the sinking of ROKS Cheon-an/shelling of Yeonpyeong Islands, arrangement of inter-Korean military agreements, drawing lessons from studies on the correlation between aid for N. Korea, execution of inter-Korean Summit and provocations from the North, and ③ bolstering the ROK·US alliance; disregarding wartime operational control transfer plan(disassembling of CFC) and creation of a combined division.

Development of Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaire Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis (Receiver Operating Characteristic 분석법을 이용한 업무관련성 근골격계질환 설문지 개발)

  • Kwon, Ho-Jang;Ju, Yeong-Su;Cho, Soo-Hun;Kang, Dae-Hee;Sung, Joo-Hon;Choi, Seong-Woo;Choi, Jae-Wook;Kim, Jae-Young;Kim, Don-Gyu;Kim, Jai-Yong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.32 no.3
    • /
    • pp.361-373
    • /
    • 1999
  • Objectives: Receive Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve with the area under the ROC curve(AUC) is one of the most popular indicator to evaluate the criterion validity of the measurement tool. This study was conducted to develop a standardized questionnaire to discriminate workers at high-risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders using ROC analysis. Methods: The diagnostic results determined by rehabilitation medicine specialists in 370 persons(89 shipyard CAD workers, 113 telephone directory assistant operators, 79 women with occupation, and 89 housewives) were compared with participant's own replies to 'the questionnair on the worker's subjective physical symptoms'(Kwon, 1996). The AUC's from four models with different methods in item selection and weighting were compared with each other. These 4 models were applied to 225 persons, working in an assembly line of motor vehicle, for the purpose of AUC reliability test. Results: In a weighted model with 11 items, the AUC was 0.8155 in the primary study population, and 0.8026 in the secondary study population(p=0.3780). It was superior in the aspects of discriminability, reliability and convenience. A new questionnaire of musculoskeletal disorder could be constructed by this model. Conclusion: A more valid questionnaire with a small number of items and the quantitative weight scores useful for the relative comparisons are the main results of this study. While the absolute reference value applicable to the wide range of populations was not estimated, the basic intent of this study, developing a surveillance fool through quantitative validation of the measures, would serve for the systematic disease prevention activities.

  • PDF

A Study on a Method for Fire Suppression in a Central Area inside the Roof of a Wooden Cultural Property using a Gas Extinguishing Apparatus (가스소화설비를 이용한 목조 문화재 적심부 화재진압 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyunsung;Kim, Byung Sean;Cho, Woncheol;Lim, Yun Mook
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.65-71
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to provide a method for fire suppression in a central area inside the roof of a wooden cultural property using a gas extinguishing apparatus, which is used as one of fire suppression methods with view to preventing valuable wooden properties inherited from ancestors from being destructed by fire. For a wooden property, it is very difficult to suppress fire when combustion spreads to a central area inside its roof, so it is impossible to put out a fire without destructing it. Such a fire fighting apparatus as a sprinkler, etc., installed in modern structures, is very effective, but the possibility of damaging a cultural property is highly probable after installment and operation, which leads to its low adaptability to a wooden property. Thus, the necessity of developing a fire suppress ion apparatus was raised to minimize the said problem and to obtain the desired results, and the need of making a plan on the installment was also raised based on the results of a test whose validity was proven. The central area inside a roof is a traditional - architectural style which is found in Korean wooden structures only, so it is impossible to discover similar cases in foreign countries. For this reason, this study was conducted to verify the effectiveness by developing a fixed fire suppression apparatus designed considering the speed and effectiveness in fire suppression. This study was sequentially carried out in the following steps. First, a frame for this study was made and the specific plan on a fire suppression method was established. Then, a fire suppression apparatus was installed. In the first step, the effectiveness for fire suppression was tested by installing valve open - punched - main water pores, and in the second step, the same effectiveness was tested by valve opened - punched - injection ports. For a wooden property similar to "Sungnyemun"(Gate of Exalted Ceremonies), its central area of the roof decides whether the fire suppression is successful or not, so the opinions on how to put out a fire were presented in this study, and thus the objective data to establish a method on fire suppression in a wooden structure(cultural property) was secured. Lastly, a scientific verification in the effectiveness for fire suppression measures was presented by installing a gas - fixed fire suppression apparatus.

  • PDF

A Preliminary Epidemiologic Study on Korean Veterans Exposed to Herbicides in Vietnam War (파월국군장병의 고엽제 위해에 관한 예비적 역학조사)

  • Kim, Joung-Soon;Lee, Hyun-Sul;Lee, Hong-Bok;Lee, Won-Young;Park, Young-Joo;Kim, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.27 no.4 s.48
    • /
    • pp.711-734
    • /
    • 1994
  • Among chemical agents in herbicides, dioxin (2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachloro dibenzo-$\rho$-dioxin : TCDD), a chemical contaminant in herbicides sprayed during the Vietnam War has been known to be the major agent causing toxic effects. Approximately 320,000 korean soldiers participated the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1974. Although the potential hazards of the herbicides among Korean veterans exposed were implicated, the problem had not been a public issue until 1991 when Korean veterans were informed U.S. companies, the herbicides manufacturer payed fund, from which a trust fund for New Zealand and Australian Class members were established in 1985. After a series of appeals and demonstration by the Korean Veterans demanding medical care and compensation for their serious health damages, a bill of medical care and compensation for herbicides victims was promulgated in March 1993 and become effective from May 1993, This study was carried out with two major objectives : the first to understand the health problems caused from the herbicides by reviewing literatures published, and the second to examine the nature and extent of health impacts among Korean veterans exposed and to develop valid study methods for the major study by interviewing and reviewing records on a part of veterans (638 persons) registered and completed medical examination in Seoul Veterans Administration Hospital from June to October 1993. The results obtained are as followings: 1. The literature review of 107 papers revealed that 1) Dioxin is teratogenic, carcinogenic and affects almost all organs including nervous, endocrine, and reproductive systems in animal experiments. 2) The diseases showing evidence of causal association were Hodgkin's disease, non-Hodgkin's disease, lung cancer, lymphoma, soft tissue sarcoma, chloroacne and polyneuropathy when judged on the basis of consistency in study results and biological plausibility. 2. Interview and medical record review study on 638 veterans, though limited validity owing to lack of control group, crude estimates of dioxin exposure levels (no biomarkers measurable), and uncertainty of diagnosis, showed that: 1) Most of the study subject's were in their 40's of age and had been dispatched to Vietnam during the period from $1965{\sim}1970$ around one year. 2) Most frequently complained symptoms in medical examination were motor weakness (32%), sensory abnormalities in extremities (23%), skin diseases (22%), and pain in extremities (20%) whereas in Interview they were more frequent in order of skin problem (44%), motor weakness (38%), sensory abnormalities and pain in extremities(17% and 19% each). Kappa indices on the same category of complaints between two sources of information were variable and relatively low. 3) On medical examination, only a part of the 638 subjects had initial impression (442 pts) and final diagnosis (218 pts) suggesting decision making on diagnosis appeared to be difficult even with all available modern medical technologies: in initial impression disorders from peripheral and central neuropathy were predominant whereas in final diagnosis various types of skin disorder were most frequent 4) When dose-response relationship between several conditions (from questionnaire) and arbitrary exposure scores were examined by CMH linear trend test, spontaneous abortion, sexual problems and health problem of offsprings showed statistically significant linear trends. However, pregnancy, accident and suicidal attempts did not show any relationship in this study capacity. 5) Among complaints, psychosis and neurosis (anxiety, phobia) in interview study, and memory disorder and psychosis in medical record study revealed linear trend. 6) Skin disorder was the only condition showing linear trend in initial impression and none in final diagnosis on medical examination. Even though objective to select out dioxin-related disease or group of diseases from this study was not achieved the research experiences provided firm basis for developing various methodological approaches. 3. From this preliminary study we concluded that a larger scale major epidemiologic study on health impacts of herbicides among Korean veterans exposed is not only Indispensible but also well designed study with more valid exposure information and diagnosis may be able to establish causal relationship between certain groups of diseases and exposure to the herbicides among Korean veterans.

  • PDF