• 수산경영론집
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.95-110
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• 2006

Japan's frozen shrimp future market is the only fisheries future commodity market in the world. This empirical study examines the lead and lag relationship between Japan frozen shrimp spot and future markets using the daily prices from August 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005. Frozen shrimp future contract is listed on Japan Kansai Commodities Exchange. Japan imports approximately 250,000 tons of frozen shrimp annually, of which just under 70,000 tons, nearly 30%, are black tiger shrimp. Approximately 90% of black tiger shrimp are caught in Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam, and the two largest consumers of these shrimp are Japan and the U.S.A. Kansai Commodities Exchange adopts the India black tiger shrimp as standard future commodity. We use unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector autoregressive analysis and Impulse response analysis. However, considering the long - term relationships between the level variables of frozen shrimp spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. We find that the price change of frozen shrimp futures with next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 month maturity have a strong predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp spot and the change of frozen shrimp spot also have a predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp with next 1, 2, 3 month maturity. But, the explanatory power of the frozen shrimp futures is relatively greater than that of frozen shrimp spot.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제16권12호
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• pp.5-11
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• 2018

Purpose - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the US and China and housing distribution economy in Korea using EPU indexes of two countries and the economic indicators in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the data such as the Korean housing price stability index (HPSI), housing purchase price index (HPPI), housing lease price index (HLPI), banking stock index (BSI), and consumer price index (CPI) with EPU indexes from January 1999 to December 2017. As an empirical methodology, we select the vector error correction model (VECM) due to the existence of cointegration. Result - As results of the impulse response function, the impact of the US EPU index has initially a negative response on the Korean HPSI, HPPI, and HLPI referring the housing distribution market including the economic variables, BSI, and CPI. Likewise, the impact of index in China has initially a negative response on economic indicators except the BSI in Korea. Conclusions - This study shows that the EPU index of the US has significantly negative relationships on all economic indicators in Korea. In this study, we reveal EPU of the US and China has dynamic impact on housing distribution economy returns in Korea.

• 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.61-70
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• 2012

A construction project is very costly and takes a long time to make investment and yield profit. For this reason, financial institutions are cautious about financing construction projects. Meanwhile, a construction company needs financing from financial institutions to cover a large expense of a construction project. Thus, there is likely to be a close correlation between financing conditions and business operation of a construction company. To examine the relationship, variables were identified that are related to insolvency of a construction company and changes in financing conditions. The analysis period is between the second quarter of 2001 and the fourth quarter of 2010. Data was retrieved from TS2000 established by Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Office, and Construction Economy Research Institute of Korea (CERIK). In terms of methodology, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was used to analyze dynamic relationship between changes in financing conditions and insolvency of a construction company based on the identified variables. The hypothesis was that changes in financing conditions would significantly affect business of a construction company, but, the analysis did not find a close relation between the two factors. However, it was shown that poor business of a construction company affects financing conditions adversely.

• 한국안광학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.11-17
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• 2009

목적: 본 연구는 안경 및 콘택트렌즈 수입이 경제변수로부터 어떻게 반응하고 어떤 행태를 보이는가를 실증적으로 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 방법: 이를 위하여 모형의 강건성을 위한 EG공적분 기법과 Johansen's 다변량 공적분기법을 이용하였다. 그 결과 변수와 모형이 안정적임이 확인되면 수입함수를 추정한다. 그리고 오차수정모형을 통하여 안경과 콘택트렌즈 수입의 실제치와 균형치 간의 괴리가 매월 제거되거나 수정되는 비율을 본다. 또한 시간경과에 따라 변수의 동태성 점검을 위한 전향적 이동회귀를 실시한다. 결과: 이러한 분석 결과를 보면, 안경과 콘택트렌즈 수입은 경제변수에 탄력적임을 밝히고 있다. 특히, 콘택트렌즈보다 안경이 더욱 더 민감하게 반응하는 것을 보여주고 있다. 결론: 본 논문은 안경과 콘택트렌즈 수입이 환율과 경기와 같은 경제변수 및 계절적 요인에 영향을 받는다는 것을 밝히고 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.43-51
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• 2018

We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of Asian four countries such as Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and China on housing market returns in Korea. Also, we document the relationship between the EPU index of those four countries and the housing market including macroeconomic indicators in Korea. The EPU index of those four countries has significantly a negative effect on the housing purchase price index, housing lease price index in Korea. The EPU index in Korea and Japan has significantly a negative effect on the CPI. The EPU index in only Japan has significantly a negative effect on the PPI. The EPU index in Hong Kong and Korea has significantly a negative effect but the EPU index in China significantly has a positive effect on the stock price index in construction industry. The EPU index in only Korea has significantly a negative effect the stock price index in banking industry. This study shows the EPU index of the Korea has the negative relationships on the housing market economy rather than other countries by VECM. And this study has an important evidence of the spillover of several macroeconomic indicators in Korea for the EPU index of the Asian four countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.163-171
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• 2020

The study aims to examine the effects of inward every presence of foreign investment, import, and real exchange rate shocks on export performance in Vietnam. This study employs a time-series sample dataset in the period of 2009 - 2018. All data are collected from the General Statistics Office of Ministry of Planning and Investment in Vietnam, World Development Indicator and Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Vietnam. This study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the vector error correction model with the analysis of cointegration. The results demonstrate that a higher value of import significantly accelerates export performance in the short run, but insignificantly generates in the long run. When the volume of registered foreign investment goes up, the export performance will predominantly decrease in the both short run and long run. Historically, countries worldwide are more likely to devaluate their currencies in order to support export performance. According to the study, the exchange rate volatility has an effect on the external trade in the long run but no effect in the short run. Finally, Vietnam's export performance converges on its long-run equilibrium by roughly 6.3% with the speed adjustment via a combination of import, every presence of foreign investment, and real exchange rate fluctuations.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.495-512
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• 2008

Because Korea and Japan has joined WTO and OECD, it is impossible to carry out a direct export-promoted policy such as export subsidies. Therefore, the only policy which is internationally valid for promoting an export is the export insurance. Hence export insurance system became more useful tool since it's one of the few allowed subsidies under WTO. This paper examines to find the impacts of export insurance on the export supply in Korea and Japan. The period of data is from 1980 to 2006. Unlike previous studies on the effectiveness of export subsidy in export supply, the current study examines the stationarity nature of the concerned variables. The unit root tests show that all variables are not I(0) Time Series. Instead, they are I(1) Time Series. To this, cointegration verification was conducted based on the use of Johansen verification method to define the existence (or non-existence) of long-term balance relationship among variables. The concerned variables are revealed to be cointegrated. In order to analyze, this study introduce a VEC model. In this paper we construct two VEC models. The one is about Korea, the other is about Japan. The empirical evidences show that export insurance system has not contributed to promoting export supply in Japan. But the results of empirical analysis showed significant and positive effects of Korea export insurance upon the export supply.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.17-25
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• 2017

Purpose - The study is to examine the impact of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Korea and the US industrial economy including the distribution industry. We analyze its effect on the industrial economy centered on the distribution industry using economy indices in Korea and the US. Research design, data, and methodology - The variables are used to analyze the dynamic relationship which occurs among the US PMI, the industrial production index, producer price index, unemployment rate, and manufacturing Inventories Index in Korea and the US from January 1990 to July 2016 using Vector Error Correction Model. Results - As a main result, the impact of the US PMI on all the economy indices both Korea and the US has the same cyclical movement. The US PMI is positively related to the producer price and the industrial production index of Korea and the US, while it is negatively related to unemployment rate, and the manufacturing inventories index in Korea and the US. Conclusions - The US PMI as an advanced index has a power to predict the economies on Korea and the US. In the end, we find that the US PMI has a great impact on Korea and the US industrial economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.213-224
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• 2020

The study assesses the impact of trade liberalization factors on changes in customs revenues in Vietnam. Research data was conducted between 2002 and 2017 on the official website of the Government's Web Portal and The World Bank. This paper uses the vector error correction model to estimate the short-term and long term relationship between data series. The results have proven that tariff reductions have a positive effect on short-term and long-term customs revenues in Vietnam. However, the implementation of other international commitments on trade liberalization has positive short-term and long-term negative impacts on customs revenues in Vietnam. The study's results also show that exchange rate has no effect on changes in customs revenues in the short term but it has a strong impact on increasing customs revenues in the long run. Based on these findings, the article also suggests a number of policies to ensure customs revenues in Vietnam in future. In order to ensure customs revenues, the government of Vietnam should: (1) having some policy to improve the efficiency of customs management in Vietnam; (2) Building appropriate VND exchange rate policy; (3) Establishing reasonable non - tariff barriers to prevent fraud and ovations cause losses in customs revenues.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia's economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.