• Title/Summary/Keyword: Unit-root Test

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Trade Effect Analysis of Korea.ASEAN FTA using a Panel Analysis (패널분석을 이용한 한.ASEAN FTA의 교역효과 분석)

  • Son, Yongjung;Kim, Hyunduk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.95-111
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to draw out the trade effect of the Korea ASEAN FTA by carrying out a panel analysis. For achieving such a purpose, Panel Unit Root, Panel Cointegration Test, Pooled OLS, Hausman Test, Fixed Effect, Random effect are performed. The last 15 years's data over the period of 1997 to 2011 concentrated on the ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, Thai, Vietnam is used in this study. Major implications are summarized as following. First, our government need to maximize the effect derived from conclusion of FTA(Free Trade Agreement) in order to enhance the competitive edge through obtaining a stable foreign market. Second, it necessary for our government to improve a national system by orienting a FTA conclusion complying with WTO's product and service-related regulation.

An analysis of the causality between international oil price and skipjack tuna price (국제 유가 변동과 원양선망어업 가다랑어 가격 간의 인과성 분석)

  • JO, Heon-Ju;KIM, Do-Hoon;KIM, Doo-Nam;LEE, Sung-Il;LEE, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

Relative Power Density Distribution Calculations of the Kori Unit 1 Pressurized Water Reactor with Full-Scope Explicit Modeling of Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Kim, Jong-Oh;Kim, Jong-Kyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.375-384
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    • 1997
  • Relative power density distributions of the Kori Unit 1 pressurized water reactor are calculated by Monte Carlo modeling with the MCNP code. The Kori Unit 1 core is modeled on a three-dimensional representation of the one-eighth of the reactor in-vessel component with reflective boundaries at 0 and 45 degrees. The axial core model is based on half core symmetry and is divided into four axial segments. Fission reaction density in each rod is calculated by following 100 cycles with 5,000 test neutrons in each cycle after starling with a localized neutron source and ten noncontributing settle cycles. Relative assembly power distributions are calculated from fission reaction densities of rods in assembly. After 100 cycle calculations, the system converges to a k value of 1.00039 $\geq$ 0.00084. Relative assembly power distribution is nearly the same with that of the Kori Unit 1 FSAR. Applicability of the full-scope Monte Carlo simulation in the power distribution calculation is examined by the relative root moan square error of 2.159%.

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A study on the slope sign test for explosive autoregressive models (기울기 부호를 이용한 폭발자기회귀검정 연구)

  • Ha, Jeongcheol;Jung, Jong Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.791-799
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    • 2015
  • In random walk hypothesis, we assume that current change of financial time series is independent of past values. It is interpreted as an existency of a unit root in ARMA models and many researches have been focused on whether ${\rho}$ < 1 or not. If some financial data are generated from an explosive autoregressive model, the chance of a bubble economy increases. We have to find the symptoms of it in advance. Since some well-known parameter estimators contain the parameter itself and other statistic is constructed under a specific parameter structure assumption, those are difficut to be adopted. In this paper we investigate a test for explosive autoregressive models using slope signs. We found the properties of the slope sign test statistic under both independent error and correlated error conditions, mainly by simulations.

Adhesion Performance of Electromagnetic Induction Heating Pixture for the Integration with a Waterproof & Root Barrier Sheet and a Roof Green Unit System (방수·방근시트와 옥상녹화 박스유닛 시스템의 일체화를 위한 전자기 유도가열 융착 고정구의 부착성능)

  • Oh, Chang-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.463-469
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    • 2018
  • A currently used roof green system with multi layers has a low constructability. Therefore a new integrated waterproof & root barrier sheet and roof green box unit system was developed using steel plate fixture and cone type fixture by electromagnetic induction heating method. This study was proceeded to evaluate adhesion performance of two types of fixtures on Engineering PE, TPO, PVC sheet in a normal condition, repeated heating and cooling condition. As a result, adhesion load on Engineering PE sheet showed the highest value. The adhesion loads of steel plate fixture showed higher value as heating temperature was getting higher. However adhesion loads of cone type fixture showed opposite tendency. Regarding to the test conditions, test results of normal condition, repeated heating and cooling condition showed same value. The cone type fixture using butyl tape showed 7 times lower adhesion load than that of cone type fixture using electromagnetic heating and 28% lower adhesion load in a repeated heating and cooling condition than a usual condition.

A Study on Determinants of Asset Price : Focused on USA (자산가격의 결정요인에 대한 실증분석 : 미국사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyoung-Kyoo;Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

Method of Quasi-Three Dimensional Stability Analysis of the Root Pile System on Slope Reinforcement (사면보강 뿌리말뚝공법의 준3차원적 안정해석기법)

  • Kim, Hong-Taek;Gang, In-Gyu;Park, Sa-Won
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 1997
  • The root pile system is insitu soil reinforcement technique that uses a series of reticulately installed micropiles. In terms of mechanical improvement by means of grouted reinform ming elements, the root pile system is similar to the soil nailing system. The main difference between root piles and soil nailing are due to the fact that the reinforcing bars in root piles are normally grouted under high pressure and that the alignments of the reinforcing members differ. Recently, the root pile system has been broadly used to stabilize slopes and retain excavations. The accurate design of the root pile system is, however, a very difficult tass owing to geometric variety and statical indetermination, and to the difficulty in the soilfiles interaction analysis. As a result, moat of the current design methods have been heavily dependent on the experiences and approximate approach. This paper proposes a quasi-three dimensional method of analysis for the root pile system applied to the stabilization of slopes. The proposed methods of analysis include i) a technique to estimate the change in borehole radium as a function of the grout pressure as well as a function of the time when the grout pressure is applied, ii) a technique to evaluate quasi -three dimensional limit-equilibrium stability for sliding, iii) a technique to predict the stability with respect to plastic deformation of the soil between adjacent root piles, and iv) a quasi -three dimensional finite element technique to compute stresses and dis placements of the root pile structure barred on the generalized plane strain condition and composite unit cell concept talon형 with considerations of the group effect and knot effect. By using the proposed technique to estimate the change in borehole radius as a function of the grout pressure as well as a function of the time, the estimations are made and compar ed with the Kleyner 8l Krizek's experimental test results. Also by using the proposed quasi-three dimensional analytical method, analyses have been performed with the aim of pointing out the effects of various factors on the interaction behaviors of the root pile system.

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The Impact of Export Insurance on Exports to ASEAN and India: The Experience of Korea

  • Lee, Koung-Rae;Lee, Seo-Young
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.157-172
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This research empirically proves the extent to which export insurance promotes Korean exports to research object countries among New Southern countries. The outcome of this research will present implications for the operations of export insurance for exports to these countries. Design/methodology - For the empirical analysis, the export equation was composed using a basic gravity model. Based on this, the determinants of Korea's exports to research object countries were analyzed. In this study, a panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted. As a result of the panel unit root test, it was confirmed that the variables of the panel data are not belonging to I(0), but to I(1). As a result of the panel cointegration test, it was established that there are long-term stable relationships among all variables. Accordingly, the gravity model was estimated using original data in order to reduce the information loss caused by the first difference, in spite of individual data belonging to I(1). Findings - For the estimated results of panel OLS, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.56-0.64, with statistically significant results at the significance level of 1%. In addition, for the analysis results of the random effect model, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.59-0.64%, with a statistically significant result at the 1% significance level. This could indicate that Korean export insurance has positive influences on export promotion to New Southern countries. Originality/value - The research implies that export insurance has a 4.1 to 4.7 multiplier effect in expanding exports to the New Southern countries for Korea. This research has intensively analyzed the effects of export insurance on the promotion of exports to a selected area by a government foreign economic policy, which is the originality and value of this paper.

The analysis of EU carbon trading and energy prices using vector error correction model (벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 유럽 탄소배출권가격 분석)

  • Bu, Gi-Duck;Jeong, Ki-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.401-412
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    • 2011
  • This study uses a vector error correction model to analyze the daily time series data of the spot price of EUA (European Union Allowance). As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid Phase 1 period (2005-2007) where the EUA prices were distorted. Unit-root and cointegration test results reveal that all variables have a unit root and cointegration vectors exist, so a vector error correction model is adopted instead of a vector autoregressive model.

A Study on the True RMS Measurement of Electrical Unit for Performance Test (전기수술기 성능시험용 True RMS 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Han-Woo;Bae, Moon-Seob;Choi, Duck-Hee
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.309-314
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    • 1991
  • This paper describes the results of study on the measurement method of TRMS (true root mean square value) In electrosurgical unit. We used three type (direct computing type, indirect computing type, thermal converting type) in the measurement of TRMS. Three types of measurement method were compared with respect to power level, frequencey and crest factor in addition to environmental temperature. In three of them, the thermal converting type was the best for th electrosurgical unit analyzer

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