• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.31-39
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• 2015

Unemployment is related to social issues as well as personal economics activity so various policies have been made to reduce the unemployment rate in many countries. Because of delay inherent in the survey mechanism to collect unemployment data, it takes lots of time to acquire survey unemployment data. To develop proper policies for reducing unemployment rate at the right time, it is quite critical to obtain faster and more accurate information concerning about unemployment level. To remedy this problem, recently an advanced analytics utilizing internet queries is suggested. To examine the potential of Web query information, this research investigates the usefulness of internet activity data to predict Korean unemployment rate. One of selected web-query data(unemployment claim) has a quite strong correlation with unemployment rate. This research employes a time series approach of the ARIMA model that utilizes the information of keyword queries provided by the Naver(Korean representative portal site) trend together with unemployment rate data provisioned from Statistics Korea. With respect to model selection guidelines of mean squared error and prediction error, the model with utilizing the web query information shows better results than the model without such information. This suggests that there is a strong potential for the used method, which needs to be further explored.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2004

In the Korean Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS), the sample sizes for small areas are typically too small to provide reliable estimators because the EAPS has been designed to produce unemployment statistics for large areas such as Metropolitan Cities and Province. In this study, we consider the synthetic and composite estimators for the unemployment rate of small areas, and apply them to real data on Choongbook province which is from the Korean EAPS of December 2000. The mean square errors of these estimators were estimated by the Jackknife method, and the efficiencies of small area estimators were evaluated in terms of the relative standard errors and the relative root mean square errors. As a result, the composite estimator is much more efficient than other estimators and it turns out that the composite estimator can produce the reliable estimates of the unemployment rate of small areas under the current EAPS system.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.37
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• pp.1-31
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• 1999

In Korea, little is known about unemployment duration and exit rate from unemployment. This paper empirically examines the duration of unemployment using data for the years 1996 and 1997 on unemployed individuals who are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits in Korea. A parametric survival model (log-normal model) is adopted to identify factors predicting transitions to reemployment. Factors that affect unemployment duration are sex, age, employment duration (year), prior salary, region, prior employment industry, cause of unemployment, officially determined unemployment benefit duration, degree of benefit exhaustion, and amount of benefits for early reemployment. However, education is not statistically significant In degree of benefit exhaustion, the exit rate from unemployment decreases as benefit exhaustion is approached. In amount of benefits for early reemployment, the exit rate from unemployment increases as amount of benefits increases. Hazards for reemployment gradually increase until 80 days after unemployment and gradually decrease in the following period. Thus, we find that distribution of hazards for reemployment has log-normal shapes between inverted U and inverted L This paper takes advantage of a unique analysis about unemployment duration and exit rate from unemployment in the Korean Unemployment Insurance system which functions as the most valuable social safely-net mechanism in the recent national economic crisis. Indeed, this paper provides a basic knowledge about realities of unemployed individuals in the Unemployment Insurance system and identifies research areas that require further study.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.1-24
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• 2015

We estimate the natural rate of Unemployment in Korea, using job finding and separation rates. The estimation results suggest that both job finding and separation rates of Korea have increased after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. However, we don't find evidence of significant increase in the trend of the natural rate of unemployment. Overall our finding suggests that both job creation and destruction have increased.

• 재활복지
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.127-149
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• 2013

This study analyzed the hazard of unemployment and the influencing factors on the rate. Data came from the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled(PSED), 2010-2012, which is a longitudinal survey for 5,092 disabled people in Korea. For the main purpose of this study, the life-table method was used for describing the patterns of unemployment duration by disabled, and the cox proportional hazard model was used to identify significant factors on the unemployment duration. The results were as follows. First, according to the life table analysis, the unemployment rate to remain until the longest period of unemployment(25month) is 90.5%, and the rate of entry into the labor market was only 9.5%. Overall, the unemployment maintenance rate was high, the unemployment escape rate decreased after 12month. Second, looking at the results from the cox proportional hazards model, the unemployment escape possibility were increased for those who are male, are non-public benefit recipient with disability, have mild disability, and have less discrimination experiences. With these results, disability discrimination act which can reduce the disability discrimination in employment site should be strengthened. Also, the scheme of Nation Basic Protection Program should be modified to attract the employment of recipients with disability. Finally, policy targets having employment escape difficulty, such as women with disability, people with severe disabilities should be departmentalized. And employment service is provided in accord with the individual needs and characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.159-181
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• 2004

This study examines the realities and causes of youth and new college graduate unemployment, and seeks some assignments for mitigating youth and new college graduate unemployment. An analysis of the realities and causes of youth and new college graduate unemployment is summarized as follows. First, youth unemployment rate, which rapidly increased after the IMF economic crisis, slowly decreased after 2000, but was still somewhat higher in 2002 than that before the IMF. Second, new college graduate unemployment rate, which rapidly increased after the IMF economic crisis, slowly decreased after 2000 and became a similar level to that before the IMF economic crisis, but the number of the unemployed new college graduates highly increased after the IMF. Third, an analysis of the causes of youth unemployment shows that economic growth and the employment elasticity of economic growth negatively affect the unemployment rate, and the rate of entrance into colleges positively affects the unemployment rate. Fourth, an analysis of the causes of new college graduate unemployment demonstrates that economic growth and the employment elasticity of economic growth negatively affect the unemployment rate, and the increase rate of new college graduates, the college graduate/youth population ratio, and the time trend positively affect the unemployment rate. These results suggest several implications for mitigating the unemployment rate of the youth and new college graduates. First, in order to increase labor demand, emphasis must be placed on preparing economic conditions which can raise economic growth rate and on fostering industries and occupations which have high employment elasticity. Second, in the aspect of labor supply, it is necessary to adjust the number of new college graduates corresponding to labor demands in industries. Third, in order to redress the mismatch between the demand and the supply of the youth labor market, attention should be paid to remedying educational systems such as the activation of vocational education and training in middle and high schools and the reformation of college education to match the education and training provided in colleges and the skills requirements of the world of work, and preparing a unified program to support the youth unemployed systematically and synthetically.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-25
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• 2000

This paper investigates why is the unemployment outflow rate into employment so high and why do the precarious workers have short unemployment spell after the economic crisis. Using the matched panel data of the Economically Active Population Survey. This paper points out that, in spite of the fact that most spells of unemployment are quite short, a very substantial portion of the unemployed experiences multiple unemployment spells over a period of time. Also recurrent unemployment leads to very long total durations of unemployment. This evidence implies recurrent unemployment is as important as long-term unemployment under the poor social safety net system.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.111-151
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• 2003

This study attempted to analize the hazard rate from unemployment and the influncing factors on the rate by regions. The data this study uses is Korea Labor Institute Panal Study(1998-2001) and the models are hazard analysis and Cox model. The results of hazard analysis are as follow. In capital and it's vicinity, the duration of unemployment is shorter than other regions even if the unemployment rate is higher. The labor market segmentation is confirmed between capital and it's vicinity region and other regions. Kyungsang region is higher in the unemployment hazard rate than Chunla or Chungchung regions. The duration of unemployment in capital and it's vicinity is 9.29 months comparing 11.86 months in the other region. The difference is statistically significant by the significance level 0.001. The duration of unemployment in Kyungsang is 6.96 months comparing 10.95 months in Chunla region. The Cox results which indicate the influncing factors on the hazard rate are as follow. In the regions like non-metro cities and non-capital and vicinitiy, the factors such as female, tenure, wage earners, manufacturing, wholesale and retale decrease the hazard rate. The results indicate that active labor market policies region by region are needed in Korea, especially for the marginal unemployed workes from non flourishing sectors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.51-57
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• 2006

Recently, youth unemployment is not a mere economic problem in Korea. It could be developed into a serious social problem. It has been long since youth unemployment rate was more than double in total unemployment rate, which stood at 3.5 percent in 2005 and then the inactivity among the younger job-seekers is appearing to be chronic. Hence, this paper examines the status and causes of the youth unemployment problem and studies the possibility to apply the Demand-Supply Chain Management to the problem.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.201-210
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• 2008

The government employment statistics show the close comovement of the whole domestic unemployment rate with the youth unemployment rate for the past 10 years, implying the dominant influence of the unemployment of the youth age. This study investigates the structure of the short-run variation and the process of the long-run adjustment in the unemployment rates of the youth and middle ages by formulating the dynamic equation system. The estimation result consistently reflects the vulnerability of the youth class in the aggravation of the employment condition. The effect of exogenous changes is found to be persistent in the unemployment rates of both ages, which appear to have similar structures of the long-run time path. However, the youth unemployment rate turns out to have a relatively long adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium.