• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty tolerance

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Uncertainty quantification and propagation with probability boxes

  • Duran-Vinuesa, L.;Cuervo, D.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2523-2533
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    • 2021
  • In the last decade, the best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies in nuclear technology and nuclear power plant design have become a trending topic in the nuclear field. Since BEPU was allowed for licensing purposes by the most important regulator bodies, different uncertainty assessment methods have become popular, overall non-parametric methods. While non-parametric tolerance regions can be well stated and used in uncertainty quantification for licensing purposes, the propagation of the uncertainty through different codes (multi-scale, multiphysics) in cascade needs a better depiction of uncertainty than the one provided by the tolerance regions or a probability distribution. An alternative method based on the parametric or distributional probability boxes is used to perform uncertainty quantification and propagation regarding statistic uncertainty from one code to another. This method is sample-size independent and allows well-defined tolerance intervals for uncertainty quantification, manageable for uncertainty propagation. This work characterizes the distributional p-boxes behavior on uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation through nested random sampling.

Noise Evaluation Considering the Uncertainty Variation According to Frequency

  • Lee, Chulwon;Koo, SeungJun;Kong, Young Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.04a
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    • pp.191-196
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    • 2014
  • In the evaluation of measured noise data, tolerance shall be decided based on the uncertainty. The uncertainty has frequency variations due to the different standard deviations at each frequency. Therefore, tolerance shall be differently decided for each frequency with the same confidence probability. In the report, the evaluation method considering the frequency variation of uncertainty will be introduced. From the approach, considering the actual noise distribution characteristics of the ships, the tolerance shall be decided for each frequency with the same probability, but the overall averaged value shall be kept to the value designated in each notation.

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The Effects of Uncertainty Tolerance on Attitude toward Business Start-up Trying (불확실성에 대한 인내력이 창업시도태도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Hwan Ho;Byun, Chung Gyu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the linkage between uncertainty tolerance and attitude toward trying business start-up. Uncertainty tolerance can classify by degrees of uncertainty as risk and ambiguity. We examined the effects of risk tolerance and ambiguity tolerance on attitudes toward trying success and failure. And we also examined the effect of attitudes toward trying success and failure on business start-up trying. This study investigated these relationships using 173 under graduate students. The result of analysis indicated that the risk tolerance had positive effects on attitude toward trying failure, but it had not any effect on attitude toward success and process. The ambiguity tolerance has positive effects on attitude toward trying failure and trying process, but it had not any effect on attitude toward success. The attitudes toward trying success, trying failure, and trying process had positive effect on attitude toward business start-up trying. Then results of this study suggests that the uncertainty(risk and ambiguity) tolerance showed a role of antecedent of attitudes toward trying success and failure. Finally, this study concluded with a discussion of the implications of the research findings and directions for future research.

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Study on tolerance and reliability analysis of mechanical systems with uncertainty (불확정성을 고려한 기계 시스템의 공차해석 및 신뢰도 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Choe, Jin-Ho;Lee, Se-Jeong;Choe, Dong-Hun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.215-226
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    • 1998
  • This paper addresses an analytical approach to tolerance and reliability analysis of mechanical systems with uncertainty. Many mechanical systems consist of links and lubricated joints. The mobility method is applied to consider lubrication effects and the clearance vector model is used to stochastically define a mechanism for tolerance and reliability analysis. To show the validity of the proposed method, a four-bar path generator and a slider-crank mechanism are considered. The results obtained by applying the proposed method are compared with those by Monte-Carlo simulation.

Design of Plasma Cutting Torch by Tolerance Propagation Analysis (공차누적해석을 이용한 플라즈마 절단토치의 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 방용우;장희석;장희석;양진승
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2000
  • Due to the inherent dimensional uncertainty, the tolerances accumulate in the assembly of plasma cutting torch. Tolerance accumulation has serious effect on the performance of the plasma torch. This study proposes a statistical tolerance propagation model, which is based on matrix transform. This model can predict the final tolerance distributions of the completed plasma torch assembly with the prescribed statistical tolerance distribution of each part to be assembled. Verification of the proposed model was performed by making use of Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation generates a large number of discrete plasma torch assembly instances and randomly selects a point within the tolerance region with the prescribed statistical distribution. Monte Carlo simulation results show good agreement with that of the proposed model. This results are promising in that we can predict the final tolerance distributions in advance before assembly process of plasma torch thus provide great benefit at the assembly design stage of plasma torch.

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A Study on the Evaluation of Uncertainty of Rockwell Hardness C Scale According to the Korean Industrial Standards(KS) (한국산업표준(KS)에 따른 로크웰 경도 시험기의 불확도 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Bahng, G.W.;Tak, Nae-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Heat Treatment
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.163-169
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    • 2000
  • Recently, uncertainty of hardeness became a major concem for the people working on the laboratory evaluation and accreditation. It is required to indicate uncertainty of hardness tester on the report after calibration. In addition to this, uncertainty of certified hardness reference block is also required to indicate on the certification sheet. Method on the evaluation of uncertainty in hardness measurement is agreed only recently for Rockwell hardness C scale. In this paper, a preliminary calculation of uncertainty based on type B evaluation has been made for hardness testers which satisfies the requirements of Korean Standards. It was found that the tolerance limit of mean value specified in KS should be increased to be compatible with the calculated uncertainty.

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Non-stochastic interval arithmetic-based finite element analysis for structural uncertainty response estimate

  • Lee, Dongkyu;Park, Sungsoo;Shin, Soomi
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.469-488
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    • 2008
  • Finite element methods have often been used for structural analyses of various mechanical problems. When finite element analyses are utilized to resolve mechanical systems, numerical uncertainties in the initial data such as structural parameters and loading conditions may result in uncertainties in the structural responses. Therefore the initial data have to be as accurate as possible in order to obtain reliable structural analysis results. The typical finite element method may not properly represent discrete systems when using uncertain data, since all input data of material properties and applied loads are defined by nominal values. An interval finite element analysis, which uses the interval arithmetic as introduced by Moore (1966) is proposed as a non-stochastic method in this study and serves a new numerical tool for evaluating the uncertainties of the initial data in structural analyses. According to this method, the element stiffness matrix includes interval terms of the lower and upper bounds of the structural parameters, and interval change functions are devised. Numerical uncertainties in the initial data are described as a tolerance error and tree graphs of uncertain data are constructed by numerical uncertainty combinations of each parameter. The structural responses calculated by all uncertainty cases can be easily estimated so that structural safety can be included in the design. Numerical applications of truss and frame structures demonstrate the efficiency of the present method with respect to numerical analyses of structural uncertainties.

Assessment of Safety Performances in Operation of Human-centered Robots Using Geometric Tolerance and Head Injuries Criteria

  • Choi, Gi-Heung
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2007
  • Operation of human-centered robot, in general, facilitates the creation of new process that may potentially harm the human operators. Design of safety-guaranteed operation of human-centered robots is, therefore, important since it determines the ultimate outcomes of operations involving safety of human operators. This study discusses the application of geometric tolerance and head injury criteria to safety assessment of human-centered robotic operations. Examples show that extending "Work Area" has more significant effect on the uncertainty in safety than extending the system range in the presence of velocity control.

Tolerance Analysis and Design Improvement of a Lens System for Mobile Phone Camera (휴대폰용 카메라 모듈의 렌즈 시스템에 대한 공차 해석 및 설계 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Sang-Jin;Choi, Byung-Lyul;Choi, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Ju-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1063-1068
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    • 2008
  • A lens system of a camera module for mobile phones is comprised of the composition and design of various shapes of lens. To improve responses such as the modular transfer function (MTF), a lens system should always be constructed by considering uncertainty that can be caused by manufacturing and assembly error. In this study, tolerance optimization using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique is performed. In order to reduce the computational burden of the tolerance optimization process and decrease the influence from numerical noise effectively, we use the Progressive Quadratic Response Surface Modeling (PQRSM), which is one of Sequential Approximate Optimization (SAO) techniques. Using this method, we achieved optimal tolerance for each lens and obtained reliability for satisfying user‘s requirements. In addition, through the design process the manufacturing and assembly cost of a lens system was reduced.

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A technique for optimally designing fibre-reinforced laminated structures for minimum weight with manufacturing uncertainties accounted for

  • Walker, M.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2007
  • A methodology to design symmetrically laminated fibre-reinforced structures under transverse loads for minimum weight, with manufacturing uncertainty in the ply angle, is described. The ply angle and the ply thickness are the design variables, and the Tsai-Wu failure criteria is the design constraint implemented. It is assumed that the probability of any tolerance value occurring within the tolerance band, compared with any other, is equal, and thus the approach is a worst-case scenario approach. The finite element method, based on Mindlin plate and shell theory, is implemented, and thus effects like bending-twisting coupling are accounted for. The Golden Section method is used as the search algorithm, but the methodology is flexible enough to allow any appropriate finite element formulation, search algorithm and failure criterion to be substituted. In order to demonstrate the procedure, laminated plates with varying aspect ratios and boundary conditions are optimally designed and compared.