• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty and Risk

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자궁양성종양 환자의 수술 사전 교육이 불안, 불확실성, 통증에 미치는 효과: 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 (The Effects of Nursing Educations on Anxiety, Uncertainty, Pain for Patients with Benign Tumor of Uterine: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis)

  • 박서아;김가은;김혜영
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.207-220
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    • 2021
  • 본 연구는 자궁양성종양 환자의 수술 사전 교육이 불안, 불확실성, 통증에 미치는 효과를 분석하기 위해 수행된 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 연구이다. 문헌검색을 위해 PubMed, OVID MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar 및 학술연구정보서비스(RISS), 한국학술정보(KISS)등의 데이터베이스를 활용하였으며, 2020년 1월까지 검색하였다. 총 401개의 연구가 확인되었으며 선택배제 과정을 거쳐 최종적으로 13편이 분석에 포함되었다. 문헌의 비뚤림 위험은 RoB(Risk of Bias)와 Robans를 이용해 평가하였으며, 전반적으로 비뚤림 위험은 낮은 것으로 평가하였다. 연구결과 수술사전 교육은 불안 (Hedges's g= -0.89, 95 % CI -1.39, -0.47)과 통증 (Hedges's g= -0.49, 95 % CI -0.95, -0.02)에는 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났으나, 불확실성( Hedges's g = -1.38, 95 % CI -3.98, 1.23)은 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 하위그룹 분석결과 중재방법에 따라 인지행동프로그램, 시범교육, 이완요법이 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 출판 편향의 위험은 낮았다. 이를 토대로 향후 자궁양성종양 환자의 수술 사전 교육에 적용할 수 있을 것이라 사료된다.

불확실성이 투자에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석 (The Impacts of Uncertainty on Investment: Empirical Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Korea)

  • 이항용
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.89-121
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    • 2005
  • 본고는 1991~2003년의 기간중 우리나라 상장 제조업의 기업별 자료를 이용하여 불확실성과 투자의 관계에 대한 부분적인 검증을 시도하였다. 실증분석 결과 외환위기 이후의 기간에서만 불확실성이 투자에 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났으며, 또한 외환위기 이후의 기간중에서도 재무건전성이 낮은 기업에서 불확실성의 영향이 강하게 추정되었다. 이러한 분석결과는 외환위기 이후 기업의 위험기피성향이 증가하였으며 기업경영이 보수화되어 왔음을 시사하고 있다. 한편 외환위기 이전에는 투자와 현금흐름 사이에 높은 상관관계가 추정된 데 비하여, 외환위기 이후에는 이러한 상관관계가 발견되지 않아 투자자금의 공급과 관련된 금융제약이 투자에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 약화되었음을 의미하고 있다.

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인터넷 쇼핑몰 콘텐츠에서 정보수신자의 커뮤니케이션 스타일에 미치는 영향요인에 관한 연구 (A Study of Factors Influencing on Receivers' Communication Style in Internet Shopping Mall Contents)

  • 천명환
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2006
  • 인터넷은 다양한 정보를 소비자에게 제공하며 구매의사결정을 지원하는 중요한 매체이다. 특히 인터넷의 상호작용적 특성과 정보 생성자라는 소비자 역할의 변화는 구매행동에서 구전커뮤니케이션을 통해 교환되는 정보의 효용가치를 증가시키는 계기가 되었다. 본 연구의 목적은 온라인 쇼핑환경에서 구전커뮤니케이션을 통한 정보의 지각된 유용성에 미치는 영향요인을 규명하고, 지각된 유용성과 구전커뮤니케이션스타일과의 관계를 규명하는 것이다. 분석결과 선택 불확실성, 지식불확실성, 지각된 위험 등의 요인이 커뮤니케이션을 통한 정보의 유용성에 유의미한 영향을 미쳤으나 관계불확실성은 영향을 주지 않았다. 또한 소비자 간에 교환되는 정보의 유용성을 높게 지각할수록 수동적인 커뮤니케이션보다는 상호작용적 커뮤니케이션 방식을 선택하는 것으로 조사되었다.

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인지된 위험의 유형이 소비자 신뢰 및 온라인 구매의도에 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Perceived Risks Upon Consumer Trust and Purchase Intentions)

  • 홍일유;김우성;임병하
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2011
  • Internet-based commerce has undergone an explosive growth over the past decade as consumers today find it more economical as well as more convenient to shop online. Nevertheless, the shift in the common mode of shopping from offline to online commerce has caused consumers to have worries over such issues as private information leakage, online fraud, discrepancy in product quality and grade, unsuccessful delivery, and so forth, Numerous studies have been undertaken to examine the role of perceived risk as a chief barrier to online purchases and to understand the theoretical relationships among perceived risk, trust and purchase intentions, However, most studies focus on empirically investigating the effects of trust on perceived risk, with little attention devoted to the effects of perceived risk on trust, While the influence trust has on perceived risk is worth studying, the influence in the opposite direction is equally important, enabling insights into the potential of perceived risk as a prohibitor of trust, According to Pavlou (2003), the primary source of the perceived risk is either the technological uncertainty of the Internet environment or the behavioral uncertainty of the transaction partner. Due to such types of uncertainty, an increase in the worries over the perceived risk may negatively affect trust, For example, if a consumer who sends sensitive transaction data over Internet is concerned that his or her private information may leak out because of the lack of security, trust may decrease (Olivero and Lunt, 2004), By the same token, if the consumer feels that the online merchant has the potential to profit by behaving in an opportunistic manner taking advantage of the remote, impersonal nature of online commerce, then it is unlikely that the merchant will be trusted, That is, the more the probable danger is likely to occur, the less trust and the greater need to control the transaction (Olivero and Lunt, 2004), In summary, a review of the related studies indicates that while some researchers looked at the influence of overall perceived risk on trust level, not much attention has been given to the effects of different types of perceived risk, In this context the present research aims at addressing the need to study how trust is affected by different types of perceived risk, We classified perceived risk into six different types based on the literature, and empirically analyzed the impact of each type of perceived risk upon consumer trust in an online merchant and further its impact upon purchase intentions. To meet our research objectives, we developed a conceptual model depicting the nomological structure of the relationships among our research variables, and also formulated a total of seven hypotheses. The model and hypotheses were tested using an empirical analysis based on a questionnaire survey of 206 college students. The reliability was evaluated via Cronbach's alphas, the minimum of which was found to be 0.73, and therefore the questionnaire items are all deemed reliable. In addition, the results of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) designed to check the validity of the measurement model indicate that the convergent, discriminate, and nomological validities of the model are all acceptable. The structural equation modeling analysis to test the hypotheses yielded the following results. Of the first six hypotheses (H1-1 through H1-6) designed to examine the relationships between each risk type and trust, three hypotheses including H1-1 (performance risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust), H1-2 (psychological risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust) and H1-5 (online payment risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust) were supported with path coefficients of -0.30, -0.27 and -0.16 respectively. Finally, H2 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intentions) was supported with relatively high path coefficients of 0.73. Results of the empirical study offer the following findings and implications. First. it was found that it was performance risk, psychological risk and online payment risk that have a statistically significant influence upon consumer trust in an online merchant. It implies that a consumer may find an online merchant untrustworthy if either the product quality or the product grade does not match his or her expectations. For that reason, online merchants including digital storefronts and e-marketplaces are suggested to pursue a strategy focusing on identifying the target customers and offering products that they feel best meet performance and psychological needs of those customers. Thus, they should do their best to make it widely known that their products are of as good quality and grade as those purchased from offline department stores. In addition, it may be inferred that today's online consumers remain concerned about the security of the online commerce environment due to the repeated occurrences of hacking or private information leakage. Online merchants should take steps to remove potential vulnerabilities and provide online notices to emphasize that their website is secure. Second, consumer's overall trust was found to have a statistically significant influence on purchase intentions. This finding, which is consistent with the results of numerous prior studies, suggests that increased sales will become a reality only with enhanced consumer trust.

수문해석과정의 불확실성을 고려한 수문학적 댐 위험도 해석 기법 개선 (Improvement of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Considering Uncertainty of Hydrologic Analysis Process)

  • 나봉길;김진영;권현한;임정열
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제47권10호
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    • pp.853-865
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    • 2014
  • 수문학적 댐 위험도 분석은 복잡한 수문분석과 연계되어 있으며, 기본적으로 수문분석 과정과 모형에 사용되는 입력자료에 대한 불확실성을 평가하는 과정이 필요하다. 그러나 체계적인 불확실성 분석 과정을 통한 댐 위험도 분석 절차에 대한 연구는 상대적으로 적은편이다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 기존 연구에 대해서 2가지 주요 개선점을 도출하여 댐 위험도 분석에 활용하였다. 첫째, 강우 분석시 매개변수의 불확실성 분석이 가능한 Bayesian 모형 기반의 지역빈도해석 절차를 수립하였다. 둘째, 강우-유출 모형 매개변수의 사후분포를 정량적으로 추정하기 위하여 Bayesian 모형과 연계한 HEC-1모형을도입하였다. 도출된 유입 시나리오를 댐의 수위로 환산하기 위하여 기존 저수지 운영기준에 근거하여 저수지 추적을 수행하였으며, 최종적으로 실행함수를 통하여 수문학적 위험도를 추정하였다. 실제 댐에 대해서 모형의 적합성을 평가하였으며, 초기수위 가정에 따른 수문학적 위험도에 민감도를 평가하였다.

Individual behavioral competences for construction project risk manager

  • Lee, Kwang-Pyo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Byung-ki;Hyun, Hosang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.183-187
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    • 2015
  • The Risk Management (RM) is applied for managing uncertainty of project. In this circumstance, the competences of RM have a direct effect on the performance of its application. Especially, as the RM, one of the project management areas, is a peopleoriented management field, the individual behavioral competences are significant for a risk manager. Therefore, this paper describes the development of individual behavioral competences for construction project risk manager. For this, the research classifies the individual behavioral competences of RM. And, the Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) are applied to verify a validity of the competences. Likewise, a reliability analysis using Cronbach's alpha values is performed to test internal consistency. Based on the results, the authors carry out the Focus Group Interview (FGI) on expert panels of construction RM to confirm the hierarchical model of the individual behavioral competences. It is concluded that the proposed hierarchical model of individual behavioral competences helps construction companies to diagnose the competences of their project risk manager for progressing.

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Methodological Improvement for the Economic Assessment of Public R&D Programs

  • Hwang, Seogwon
    • STI Policy Review
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2011
  • Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.

Markov-based time-varying risk assessment of the subway station considering mainshock and aftershock hazards

  • Wei Che;Pengfei Chang;Mingyi Sun
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2023
  • Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

인터넷 쇼핑 중 구매결정 연기가 쇼핑감정과 쇼핑몰 만족도에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of Decision Making Delay on Experienced Emotion for Internet Shopping and Internet Shopping Mall Satisfaction)

  • 김한나
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.133-160
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 소비자들이 다양한 이유로 인해 인터넷 구매결정을 연기하는 쇼핑행동을 경험적 관점에서 바라보고 이를 통해 감정적 요인들이 쇼핑몰 만족도에 미치는 영향력을 살펴보고자 하였다. 본 연구모델의 실증분석을 위해 설문조사를 실시한 결과, 성과적 위험지각, 재정적 위험지각, 사회적 위험지각에 의한 구매결정 연기는 부정적 감정을 경험하게 하며, 특히 성과적 위험지각의 경우 긍정적 감정에 부적 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 사회적 위험지각과 절차 불확실성에 의한 구매결정 연기는 쇼핑 중 긍정적 감정에 영향을 미치고, 필요 불확실성에 의한 구매결정 연기는 부정적 감정을 감소시켜 쾌락적 쇼핑성향과 관련된 구매결정 연기는 긍정적 감정을 경험하게 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 인터넷 쇼핑감정에서 경험된 긍정적 감정은 쇼핑몰 만족도에 정적 영향을 미치고 부정적 감정은 부적 영향을 미침을 알 수 있었다.

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Architects' Perceptions on Identifying Major Risk Factors and Mitigation Measures in Green Building Design :The Case of South Korea

  • Kim, Jinho
    • Architectural research
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2019
  • Architects are facing increasing risks that result from heightened expectations of benefits and performance when designing green buildings compared to traditional buildings. This study aims to explore the possible risk factors for architects in green building projects in South Korea and assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, 14 risk factors and 12 mitigation measures were determined through an extensive literature review. A questionnaire was administered to architects practicing green building design and criticality index was employed to assess major risk factors and mitigation measures. This study identified 'adoption of new technology and process', 'green building certification results', 'building products and materials', and 'energy saving uncertainty' as the major risk factors of green building projects. Additionally, the questionnaire proposed 'contract indicating each party's role, liability, and limitations clearly', 'utilizing integrated design process', and 'understanding client's goal in green building projects' as the three most effective risk mitigation measures in designing green buildings. There are few studies that focus on architects' perceived risks concerning green building projects; this study contributes to a deeper knowledge and attempts to fill the current literature gap, which would benefit South Korea's green building design practice by aiding in the development of better risk management strategies.