• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Theory

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Expert System for FMECA Using Minimal Cut Set and Fuzzy Theory (최소절단집합과 퍼지이론을 이용한 FMECA 전문가 시스템)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.342-347
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    • 2009
  • Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. While performing FMECA, the experts evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectably. Which results uncertainty in the result. In order to handle the uncertainty and conclude risk level matrix, this paper proposes a new FMECA procedure using minimal cut set (MCS) and fuzzy theory. Severity is calculated by proposed structural importance while criticality is determined by typical equipment failure rate data from IEEE Std 493. Finally, the risk level is compounded of these indices.

A Study on the Successful Operation of B2B e-Marketplaces in the Korea Industry (한국산업의 B2B e-Marketplace 성공적 운영 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyu;Shin, Seung-Man
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.59-79
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    • 2007
  • This paper is to identify whether the mechanism of the real market as an off-line market developed from the transaction cost theory from previous research is applied to on-line market, such as usiness to Business e-marketplaces. With three factors(parties, product, environments) selected from previous research, four cases picked up from all B2B e-marketplace sites as of April 2007, in the view of Business to Business Matrix which presented by Kaplan & Sawhney(2000), were studied. They were accompanied by interview with CEO and team manager, and they explained their business and revenue model of the company. From the interview, the relation between three factors and usiness to Business e-marketplace was observed by taking sub-factors into consideration; parties -asset specificity, information asymmetry, product factors - standardization, price stability, and environments factors - competition, market uncertainty. The implications of this study are to analyze the relation of the transaction theory in offline and online. Also, this is the first study that analyzed it. In the future, another research based on this research will be studied.

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Fuzzy Uncertainty Analysis of the Bird Strike Simulation (퍼지이론을 적용한 불확실성이 존재하는 조류충돌 해석)

  • Lee, Bok-Won;Park, Mi-Young;Kim, Chun-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.983-989
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    • 2007
  • The bird strike simulation is a problem characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. It deals with nonlinear dynamics, complicated models of bird materials and geometry, as well as a plenty of possible boundary and initial conditions. In this complex field, uncertainty management plays an important role. This paper aims to assess the effect of input uncertainty of bird strike analysis on the impact behavior of the leading edge of the WIG(Wing in Ground Effect) craft obtained with finite element analysis using LS-DYNA 3D. The uncertainties of the bird strike simulation arise due to imprecision or lack of information, due to variability or scatter, or as a consequence of model simplification. These uncertain parameters are represented by fuzzy numbers with their membership functions quantifying an initial guess for the actual value of the model parameter. Using the transformation method as a special implementation of fuzzy arithmetic, the model can be analyzed with the intention of determining the influence of each uncertain parameter on the overall bird strike behavior.

A Study on the Analysis of Container Ports' Efficiency using Uncertainty DEA model (불확실성 DEA모델을 이용한 컨테이너 항만의 효율성 분석 연구)

  • Pham, Thi-Quynh-Mai;Kim, Hwa-Young;Lee, Cheong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2016
  • Container port nowadays becomes one of the most vital link of the transportation chain, plays an important role in trading with other countries. Therefore, evaluating the operational efficiency of container ports to reflect their status and to reveal their position in this competitive environment is very important for port development. Although there have been lots of methods used to measure efficiency in the past, the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model is still the most commonly applied approach. However, the data used in the model sometimes is complex and uncertain to handle using the basic DEA model. In this paper, we applied an uncertainty theory to create an uncertainty DEA model (UDEA), which can solve the limitation of the traditional one. This study mainly focuses on measuring efficiency of 41 container ports by applying proposed an UDEA model. The results show that among 41 container ports, only six container ports are regarded to have efficient operation through the clustering, meanwhile others have technical and scale inefficiencies. We found out that an UDEA model is better to analysis efficiency than existing DEA model.

New Stability Condition for Discrete Delayed System with Unstructured Uncertainty (비구조화된 불확실성을 갖는 이산 지연 시스템의 새로운 안정조건)

  • Han, Hyung-seok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.607-612
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we deal with the stability of linear discrete systems with time-varying delays and unstructured uncertainty. Stability conditions are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, and can include the effect of uncertainty. The unstructured uncertainty in the papaer which can not be figured out its exact characteristics and only can be expreesed by its magnitude is considered. Compared with the previous results on the stability, the new results can expand the applicable systems and alleviate the stability conditions which are more effective and powerful. The proposed stability condition is expressed in the form of an simple inequality, and includes the both effects of the uncertainties and time-varying delay. We present the results comparing the new stability condition with the existing results, and verify the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed results through numerical example.

Impact of tie strength on knowledge sharing: Focusing on the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty (유대강도가 지식공유에 미치는 영향: 환경불확실성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Jang, Hyunju;Ryu, Sungmin
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to investigate how tie strength in business networks affects successful knowledge sharing, as well as the impact of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between knowledge sharing and tie strength. We gathered data through a questionnaire-based survey of 310 employees affiliated with a high-technology industry in Korea. The results highlighted the positive influence of strong ties on tacit knowledge sharing and weak ties on explicit knowledge sharing. Additionally, in this study, we determine that strong ties are strengthened to share tacit knowledge with exchange parties when environmental uncertainty is high, whereas weak ties may remain unaffected by environmental uncertainty. This study contributes to the literature on tie strength and knowledge sharing by applying social capital theory to a high-technology industry. The findings suggest that firms must take advantage of strong and weak ties to facilitate knowledge sharing to enhance competency, create novel knowledge, and obtain a competitive advantage.

A Review on Probabilistic Climate-economy Models and an Application of FUND (기후경제 모형의 불확실성 분석 방법 비교분석 및 FUND 모형 응용)

  • Hwang, In Chang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.359-398
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    • 2017
  • Uncertainty is central to energy and climate policy. A growing number of literature show that almost all components of energy and climate models are, to some extent, uncertain and that the effect of uncertainty on the model outputs, in turn policy recommendations, is significantly large. Most existing energy and climate-economy models developed and used in Korea, however, do not take uncertainty into account explicitly. Rather, many models conduct a deterministic analysis or do a simple (limited) sensitivity analysis. In order to help social planners to make more robust decisions (across various plausible situations) on energy and climate change issues, an uncertainty analysis should be conducted. As a first step, this paper reviews the theory of decision making under uncertainty and the method for addressing uncertainty of existing probabilistic energy and climate-economy models. In addition, the paper proposes a strategy to apply an uncertainty analysis to energy and climate-economy models used in Korea. Applying the uncertainty analysis techniques, this paper revises the FUND model and investigates the impacts of climate change in Korea.

A Study on the Effect of Experience-specificity and Uncertainty on Choice in Experiential Products -From Transaction Cost Perspective- (경험재 거래의 경험특유성, 불확실성이 선택에 주는 영향에 관한 연구 -거래비용적 관점에서-)

  • Jeong, Yun-Hee;Park, JI-Yeon
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.152-159
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of transaction characteristics on transaction cost and choice intention by applying transaction cost theory to experiential product. Experience-specificity, transaction uncertainty, and personal uncertainty are proposed to reflect the characteristics of experiential products, and the effects of these variables on transaction costs and transaction costs are assumed to have an influence on the choice intention. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, experience-specificity(site, physical equipment, knowledge skill, temporal), transactional uncertainty(product-, process-), personal uncertainty (preference-, and situation-) have a significant positive effect on transaction cost. Second, transaction costs (search, comparison, examination, negotiation, payment, delivery) have a significant negative effect on the choice intention of the experiential product. The results of this study show that the increase of transaction costs can reduce the choice of experiential products and the strategic consideration of experience specificity, transaction uncertainty and individual uncertainty are required to reduce transaction costs. In addition, experiential products lacked access from a transactional and cost-based point of view, and this study contributes theoretically by compensating for the lack.

Multimodal Data Fusion for Alzheimers Patients Using Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence

  • Majumder, Dwijesh Dutta;Bhattacharya, Nahua
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1998.06a
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    • pp.713-718
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    • 1998
  • The paper is part of an investigation by the authors on development of a knowledge based frame work for multimodal medical image in collaboration with the All India Institute of Medical Science, new Delhi. After presenting the key aspects of the Dempster-Shafer Evidence theory we have presented implementation of registration and fusion of T₁and T₂ weighted MR images and CT images of the brain of an Alzheimer's patient for minimising the uncertainty and increasing the reliability for dianostics and therapeutic planning.

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Expert System for Fault Diagnosis of Transformer

  • Kim, Jae-Chul;Jeon, Hee-Jong;Kong, Seong-Gon;Yoon, Yong-Han;Choi, Do-Hyuk;Jeon, Young-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents hybrid expert system for diagnosis of electric power transformer faults. The expert system diagnose and detect faults in oil-filled power transformers based on dissolved gas analysis. As the preprocessing stage, fuzzy information theory is used to manage the uncertainty in transformer fault diagnosis using dissolved gas analysis. The Kohonen neural network takes the interim results by applying fuzzy informations theory as inputs, and performs the transformer fault diagnosis. The Proposed system tested gas records of power transformers from Korea Electric Power Corporation to verify the diagnosis performance of transformer faults.

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