• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제26권4호
• /
• pp.477-491
• /
• 1997

A new predictive classification rule for assigning future cases into one of two multivariate normal population (with unknown normal mixture model) is considered. The development involves calculation of posterior probability of each possible normal-mixture model via a default Bayesian test criterion, called intrinsic Bayes factor, and suggests predictive distribution for future cases to be classified that accounts for model uncertainty by weighting the effect of each model by its posterior probabiliy. In this paper, our interest is focused on constructing the classification rule that takes care of uncertainty about the types of covariance matrices (homogeneity/heterogeneity) involved in the model. For the constructed rule, a Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates routine application and notes benefits over traditional predictive calssification rule by Geisser (1982).

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제62권6호
• /
• pp.703-708
• /
• 2017

The goal of this study is to evaluate behavior uncertainties of structures by using interval finite element analysis based on interval factor method as a specific non-stochastic tool. The interval finite element method, i.e., interval FEM, is a finite element method that uses interval parameters in situations where it is not possible to get reliable probabilistic characteristics of the structure. The present method solves the uncertainty problems of a 2D solid structure, in which structural characteristics are assumed to be represented as interval parameters. An interval analysis method using interval factors is applied to obtain the solution. Numerical applications verify the intuitive effectiveness of the present method to investigate structural uncertainties such as displacement and stress without the application of probability theory.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.87-93
• /
• 2008

In this paper, we propose a hierarchical fuzzy based nutrition evaluation system that can analyze the individuals' nutrition status through the inference results generated by each layer. Moreover, a method to minimize the uncertainty of inference in the evaluated nutrition status is discussed. To show the effect of the uncertainty in fuzzy inference, we compared the results of nutrition evaluation with/without the certainty factor of rules on 132 people over the age of 65. From the experimental results, we can see that the evaluation method with the modified certainty factor provides better reliability than that of the general evaluation method without the certainty factor.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.396-404
• /
• 2021

It is important to verify that the contracted speed-power performance of a ship is satisfied in sea trials. International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published the procedure for measuring and assessing ship speed during sea trials. The results obtained from actual sea conditions inevitably include various uncertainty factors. In this study, double run tests were performed on one container ship to analyze the uncertainty of sea trial on three maximum continuous rating conditions. The uncertainty factors and scale of uncertainty were examined based on the measured raw data during sea trial. The results indicate that the expanded uncertainty for ideal power performance is approximately ±1.4% at 95% confidence level (coverage factor k = 2) and most of the uncertainty factors were because of the shaft power measurement system.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정밀공학회 2009년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.553-554
• /
• 2009

• 한국항공우주학회지
• /
• 제39권12호
• /
• pp.1107-1114
• /
• 2011

본 논문에서는 레이저 피닝(Laser peening) 구조물에 대한 피로 수명을 예측하였다. 레이저 피닝에 의해 생성된 압축잔류응력(Compressive residual stress)을 계산하기 위해서 유한 요소 시뮬레이션(Finite element simulation)을 수행하였고, 피로 수명 예측 시에 압축잔류응력 효과를 고려하기 위해서 수정된 Goodman 식을 사용하였다. 또한, S-N 선도 모델 불확실성(Model uncertainty)을 고려한 피로 수명 예측을 위해 부가 적응 인자 접근법(Additive adjustment factor approach)을 적용하여 예측된 피로 수명의 신뢰 구간(Reliable bounds)을 결정하였다.

• 한국연초학회지
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.168-178
• /
• 2004

Uncertainty of final measurement results considering main uncertainty sources being in nicotine of mainstream smoke was estimated. This study was accomplished by using the ISO 'The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'. Using the two point re-calibration method, uncertainty for nicotine concentration was calculated considering the uncertainty sources of each step. The concentration and uncertainty of nicotine in mainstream smoke was estimated as $153.95{\pm}17.84\;{\mu}g/mL\;(0.77\pm0.089 mg/cig)$. The expanded uncertainty was $17.84 {\mu}g/mL(\pm0.089 mg/cig).$ The reported expanded uncertainty of the measurement is stated as the standard uncertainty of measurement multiplied by a coverage factor of 2, which for a normal distribution corresponds to a coverage probability of approximately $95\%$ The former expression indicates the conversion concentration into the sample.

• Progress in Superconductivity
• /
• 제13권2호
• /
• pp.97-104
• /
• 2011

유전체 공진기법을 이용하여 초전도체 박막의 표면저항을 측정할 경우, 공진기의 $Q_U$로부터 초전도체 박막의 표면저항을 구하기 위해 알아야 하는 G-factor를 시뮬레이션과 전자기장 해석을 이용해서 구한 후 두 값을 비교하였다. 시뮬레이션 과정에서 사용된 mesh 수가 증가할수록 시뮬레이션으로 구한 G-factor의 크기와 전자기장 해석을 통해 얻은 값 간의 차이가 줄어들게 됨을 확인하였다. 공진기에 따라 mesh 수 증가에 따른 G-factor의 정확도 증가가 조금씩 다르게 나타났는데, 이는 공진기와 유전체의 크기에 따라 simulation program이 계산하는 개당 mesh의 크기가 각기 다르기 때문으로 여겨진다. 19.6 GHz의 공진주파수를 지닌 사파이어 공진기의 경우 시뮬레이션과 전자기장 해석을 통해 구한 G-factor의 차이를 이용하여 표면저항의 불확도 추정치를 온도의 함수로 구했으며 $Q_U$를 2 % 이내의 상대 불확도로 측정할 경우 G-factor의 불확도 변화에 따른 표면저항의 상대 불확도 변화를 확인하였다. 본 연구 결과는 전자기장 해석이 매우 어렵거나 불가능한 구조의 유전체 공진기 (예로서 open-ended 평행판 유전체 공진기)의 G-factor를 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 구하여 초전도체 박막의 표면저항을 $Q_U$로부터 측정하고자 할 때 측정 온도 구간에서 허용되는 표면저항의 불확도를 고려하여 G-factor의 시뮬레이션 시 사용되는 mesh 수가 결정되어야 함을 보여준다.

• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.31-36
• /
• 2015

많은 불확실성 항목들은 소프트웨어 실행 시에 존재한다. 특히, 유사한 분야에서 전반적인 시스템에 많은 영향을 주게 된다. 불확실성 요소와 같은 모호성 요소의 관리는 소프트웨어 신뢰성을 위하여 중요한 요소가 된다. 따라서 모호성을 식별하여 불확실성 요소를 제거하도록 판단기준을 프로세스화 하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 소프트웨어 개발 시, 모호성을 제거하기 위한 불확실성 식별 기준과 불확실성 처리 프로세스 및 정량적인 평가에 대하여 제시한다.

• 한국연초학회지
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.91-98
• /
• 2000

This study was carried out to evaluate the uncertainty in the analysis of menthol content from the mentholated cigarette. Menthol in the sample cigarette was extracted with methanol containing an anethole as an internal standard, and then analyzed by gas chromatography. As the sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of menthol, were the following points tested, such as the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the pipetting of extracting solution into the sample, the preparation of standard solution, the precision of GC injections for standard & sample solution, the GC response factor of standard solution, the reproducibility of menthol analysis, and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. For calculating the uncertainties, type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. Sources of uncertainty were subsequently included and mathematically combined with the uncertainty arising from the assessment of accuracy to provide the overall uncertainty. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty came from the errors in the reproducibility of menthol and water determination, the purity of menthol reference material in the preparation of standard solution, and the precision of GC injections for sample solution. The errors in sample weighing and volume measurement contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty in the mentholated cigarettes, Korean and American brand, at 0.95 level of statistical confidence was $\pm$0.06 and $\pm$0.07 mg/g for a menthol content of 1.89 and 2.32 mg/g, respectively.