• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Evaluation

Search Result 890, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Standardization and Reliability and Validity of the Korean Edition of Profile of Mood States(K-POMS) (한국판 기분상태척도(K-POMS)의 표준화와 신뢰도와 타당도 평가)

  • Kim, Eui-Joong;Lee, Sang-Ick;Jeong, Do-Un;Shin, Min-Sup;Yoon, In-Young
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-51
    • /
    • 2003
  • Objectives: The Profile of Mood States (POMS) has been used broadly and frequently in various medical studies with various subjects. For the development and application of the Korean edition of POMS, called K-POMS, we translated POMS into Korean and then evaluated the reliability and validity of K-POMS. Methods: The subjects were 161 male students with a mean age of 18.1 years (15-30) and 244 female students with a mean age of 16.6 years (14-23). They were requested to perform K-POMS and SCL-90-R (Korean version) at the same time. Means, reliability coefficients, and test-retest correlations of K-POMS were calculated. Content validities, correlations with SCL-90-R, and discrimination validities in comparison with 76 depressive patients were obtained, and factor analyses were carried out. Results: Mean scores of Total Mood Disturbance (TMD) and some subscales (T, F, C, V factor) showed a significant difference between male and female students. The internal consistency coefficient ($\alpha$) of the total 65 items was 0.93, and ranged from 0.67 to 0.90 for subscales. Test-retest correlations of 43 subjects ranged from 0.27 to 0.63. Seven psychiatrists rated the properness of the content of each item as more than moderate degree (mean scale points=2.66, in the range of 0 to 4). Every subscale of KPOMS exhibited significant correlation with the matching subscale of SCL-90-R. Mean scores of K-POMS of the total 405 subjects were significantly different from those of the 76 depressive subjects after age correction. Six factors were extracted, accounting for 51.2% of total variance. Factor 6 consisted of 6 items which came from various subscales of POMS and represented "uncertainty and helplessness," which may be somewhat different to depression or sadness proper. Conclusion: The validity and reliability of K-POMS could be confirmed. The significant difference in K-POMS scores between depressive subjects and normal subjects suggests that K-POMS can be used clinically for the evaluation and screening of depression. The main structure of K-POMS is very similar to that of POMS, except the Confusion-Bewilderment factor which shows weak factor consistency in K-POMS. This may reflect some emotional characteristic of Koreans such as an undifferentiated aspect of cognitive efficiency. The sixth factor newly extracted from K-POMS also may be indicative of an unique emotional aspect of young Koreans.

  • PDF

Evaluation of the Accuracy for Respiratory-gated RapidArc (RapidArc를 이용한 호흡연동 회전세기조절방사선치료 할 때 전달선량의 정확성 평가)

  • Sung, Jiwon;Yoon, Myonggeun;Chung, Weon Kuu;Bae, Sun Hyun;Shin, Dong Oh;Kim, Dong Wook
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.127-132
    • /
    • 2013
  • The position of the internal organs can change continually and periodically inside the body due to the respiration. To reduce the respiration induced uncertainty of dose localization, one can use a respiratory gated radiotherapy where a radiation beam is exposed during the specific time of period. The main disadvantage of this method is that it usually requests a long treatment time, the massive effort during the treatment and the limitation of the patient selection. In this sense, the combination of the real-time position management (RPM) system and the volumetric intensity modulated radiotherapy (RapidArc) is promising since it provides a short treatment time compared with the conventional respiratory gated treatments. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of the respiratory gated RapidArc treatment. Total sic patient cases were used for this study and each case was planned by RapidArc technique using varian ECLIPSE v8.6 planning machine. For the Quality Assurance (QA), a MatriXX detector and I'mRT software were used. The results show that more than 97% of area gives the gamma value less than one with 3% dose and 3 mm distance to agreement condition, which indicates the measured dose is well matched with the treatment plan's dose distribution for the gated RapidArc treatment cases.

A Study on LRFD Reliability Based Design Criteria of RC Flexural Members (R.C. 휨부재(部材)의 L.R.F.D. 신뢰성(信賴性) 설계기준(設計基準)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-32
    • /
    • 1981
  • Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

  • PDF

Error Analysis of Delivered Dose Reconstruction Using Cone-beam CT and MLC Log Data (콘빔 CT 및 MLC 로그데이터를 이용한 전달 선량 재구성 시 오차 분석)

  • Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Park, So-Ah;Kang, Sei-Kwon;Hwang, Tae-Jin;Lee, Me-Yeon;Kim, Kyoung-Joo;Bae, Hoon-Sik;Oh, Do-Hoon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.332-339
    • /
    • 2010
  • We aimed to setup an adaptive radiation therapy platform using cone-beam CT (CBCT) and multileaf collimator (MLC) log data and also intended to analyze a trend of dose calculation errors during the procedure based on a phantom study. We took CT and CBCT images of Catphan-600 (The Phantom Laboratory, USA) phantom, and made a simple step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan based on the CT. Original plan doses were recalculated based on the CT ($CT_{plan}$) and the CBCT ($CBCT_{plan}$). Delivered monitor unit weights and leaves-positions during beam delivery for each MLC segment were extracted from the MLC log data then we reconstructed delivered doses based on the CT ($CT_{recon}$) and CBCT ($CBCT_{recon}$) respectively using the extracted information. Dose calculation errors were evaluated by two-dimensional dose discrepancies ($CT_{plan}$ was the benchmark), gamma index and dose-volume histograms (DVHs). From the dose differences and DVHs, it was estimated that the delivered dose was slightly greater than the planned dose; however, it was insignificant. Gamma index result showed that dose calculation error on CBCT using planned or reconstructed data were relatively greater than CT based calculation. In addition, there were significant discrepancies on the edge of each beam while those were less than errors due to inconsistency of CT and CBCT. $CBCT_{recon}$ showed coupled effects of above two kinds of errors; however, total error was decreased even though overall uncertainty for the evaluation of delivered dose on the CBCT was increased. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate dose calculation errors separately as a setup error, dose calculation error due to CBCT image quality and reconstructed dose error which is actually what we want to know.

Evaluation of Future Water Deficit for Anseong River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 안성천 유역의 미래 물 부족량 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Wung;Jung, Jaewon;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.345-352
    • /
    • 2017
  • The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.

Monitoring of Heavy Metals Migrated from Glassware, Ceramics, Enamelware, and Earthenware (유리제, 도자기제, 법랑 및 옹기류 재질의 식품용 기구 및 용기·포장의 중금속 이행량 모니터링)

  • Cho, Kyung Chul;Jo, Ye-Eun;Park, So-Yeon;Park, Yongchjun;Park, Se-Jong;Lee, Hye Young
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-30
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study investigated the migration levels of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and arsenic (As) from food contact articles (glassware, ceramics, enamelware, and earthenware) into a food stimulant (4% v/v, acetic acid). Migration tests were performed at 25℃ for 24 h and all analyses were performed using Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). The method was validated by linearity of calibration curves, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery, precision, and uncertainty. In glassware, the migration concentrations ranged from not-detected (N.D.) to 752.21 ㎍/L and N.D. to 1.99 ㎍/L for Pb and Cd, respectively. In ceramics, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 1,955.86 ㎍/L, N.D. to 74.06 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 302.40 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and As, respectively. In enamelware, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 4.48 ㎍/L, N.D. to 7.00 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 52.00 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and Sb, respectively. In earthenware, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 13.68 ㎍/L, N.D. to 0.04 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 6.71 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and As, respectively. All results were below the migration limits of Korea standards and specifications for food utensils, containers, and packages.

CO2 Exchange in Kwangneung Broadleaf Deciduous Forest in a Hilly Terrain in the Summer of 2002 (2002년 여름철 경사진 광릉 낙엽 활엽수림에서의 이산화탄소 교환)

  • Choi, Tae-jin;Kim, Joon;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.70-80
    • /
    • 2003
  • We report the first direct measurement of $CO_2$ flux over Kwangneung broadleaf deciduous forest, one of the tower flux sites in KoFlux network. Eddy covariance system was installed on a 30 m tower along with other meteorological instruments from June to August in 2002. Although the study site was non-ideal (with valley-like terrain), turbulence characteristics from limited wind directions (i.e., 90$\pm$45$^{\circ}$) was not significantly different from those obtained at simple, homogeneous terrains with an ideal fetch. Despite very low rate of data retrieval, preliminary results from our analysis are encouraging and worthy of further investigation. Ignoring the role of advection terms, the averaged net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of $CO_2$ ranged from -1.2 to 0.7 mg m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ from June to August in 2002. The effect of weak turbulence on nocturnal NEE was examined in terms of friction velocity (u*) along with the estimation of storage term. The effect of low uf u* NEE was obvious with a threshold value of about 0.2 m s$^{-1}$ . The contribution of storage term to nocturnal NEE was insignificant; suggesting that the $CO_2$ stored within the forest canopy at night was probably removed by the drainage flow along the hilly terrain. This could be also an artifact of uncertainty in calculations of storage term based on a single-level concentration. The hyperbolic light response curves explained >80% of variation in the observed NEE, indicating that $CO_2$ exchange at the site was notably light-dependent. Such a relationship can be used effectively in filling up the missing gaps in NEE data through the season. Finally, a simple scaling analysis based on a linear flow model suggested that advection might play a significant role in NEE evaluation at this site.

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.69-89
    • /
    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

Evaluation of MODIS-derived Evapotranspiration at the Flux Tower Sites in East Asia (동아시아 지역의 플럭스 타워 관측지에 대한 MODIS 위성영상 기반의 증발산 평가)

  • Jeong, Seung-Taek;Jang, Keun-Chang;Kang, Sin-Kyu;Kim, Joon;Kondo, Hiroaki;Gamo, Minoru;Asanuma, Jun;Saigusa, Nobuko;Wang, Shaoqiang;Han, Shijie
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.11 no.4
    • /
    • pp.174-184
    • /
    • 2009
  • Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the major hydrologic processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A reliable estimation of spatially representavtive ET is necessary for deriving regional water budget, primary productivity of vegetation, and feedbacks of land surface to regional climate. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides an opportunity to monitor ET for wide area at daily time scale. In this study, we applied a MODIS-based ET algorithm and tested its reliability for nine flux tower sites in East Asia. This is a stand-alone MODIS algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equation and uses input data derived from MODIS. Instantaneous ET was estimated and scaled up to daily ET. For six flux sites, the MODIS-derived instantaneous ET showed a good agreement with the measured data ($r^2=0.38$ to 0.73, ME = -44 to $+31W\;m^{-2}$, RMSE =48 to $111W\;m^{-2}$). However, for the other three sites, a poor agreement was observed. The predictability of MODIS ET was improved when the up-scaled daily ET was used ($r^2\;=\;0.48$ to 0.89, ME = -0.7 to $-0.6\;mm\;day^{-1}$, $RMSE=\;0.5{\sim}1.1\;mm\;day^{-1}$). Errors in the canopy conductance were identified as a primary factor of uncertainty in MODIS-derived ET and hence, a more reliable estimation of canopy conductance is necessary to increase the accuracy of MODIS ET.

Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1243-1254
    • /
    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.