• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Analysis of the Long-Range Transport Contribution to PM10 in Korea Based on the Variations of Anthropogenic Emissions in East Asia using WRF-Chem (WRF-Chem 모델을 활용한 동아시아의 인위적 배출량 변동에 따른 한국 미세 먼지 장거리 수송 기여도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyae-Jin;Cho, Jae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.283-302
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    • 2022
  • Despite the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in China since January 23, 2020, haze days with high PM10 levels of 88-98 ㎍ m-3 occurred on February 1 and 2, 2020. During these haze days, the East Asian region was affected by a warm and stagnant air mass with positive air temperature anomalies and negative zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to analyze the variation of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea due to decreased anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. The base experiment (BASE), which applies the basic anthropogenic emissions in the WRF-Chem model, and the control experiment (CTL) applied by reducing the anthropogenic emission to 50%, were used to assess uncertainty with ground-based PM10 measurements in Korea. The index of agreement (IOA) for the CTL simulation was 0.71, which was higher than that of BASE (0.67). A statistical analysis of the results suggests that anthropogenic emissions were reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown period in China. Furthermore, BASE and CTL applied to zero-out anthropogenic emissions outside Korea (BASE_ZEOK and CTL_ZEOK) were used to analyze the variations of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea. Regional PM10 transport in CTL was reduced by only 10-20% compared to BASE. Synthetic weather variables may be another reason for the non-linear response to changes in the contribution of regional transport to PM10 in Korea with the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. Although the regional transport contribution of other inorganic aerosols was high in CTL (80-90%), sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols showed lower contributions of 0-20%, 30-60%, and 30-60%, respectively. The SNA secondary aerosols, particularly nitrates, presumably declined as the Chinese lockdown induced traffic.

Application of deep learning method for decision making support of dam release operation (댐 방류 의사결정지원을 위한 딥러닝 기법의 적용성 평가)

  • Jung, Sungho;Le, Xuan Hien;Kim, Yeonsu;Choi, Hyungu;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1095-1105
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    • 2021
  • The advancement of dam operation is further required due to the upcoming rainy season, typhoons, or torrential rains. Besides, physical models based on specific rules may sometimes have limitations in controlling the release discharge of dam due to inherent uncertainty and complex factors. This study aims to forecast the water level of the nearest station to the dam multi-timestep-ahead and evaluate the availability when it makes a decision for a release discharge of dam based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) of deep learning. The LSTM model was trained and tested on eight data sets with a 1-hour temporal resolution, including primary data used in the dam operation and downstream water level station data about 13 years (2009~2021). The trained model forecasted the water level time series divided by the six lead times: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18-hours, and compared and analyzed with the observed data. As a result, the prediction results of the 1-hour ahead exhibited the best performance for all cases with an average accuracy of MAE of 0.01m, RMSE of 0.015 m, and NSE of 0.99, respectively. In addition, as the lead time increases, the predictive performance of the model tends to decrease slightly. The model may similarly estimate and reliably predicts the temporal pattern of the observed water level. Thus, it is judged that the LSTM model could produce predictive data by extracting the characteristics of complex hydrological non-linear data and can be used to determine the amount of release discharge from the dam when simulating the operation of the dam.

Validation of GOCI-II Products in an Inner Bay through Synchronous Usage of UAV and Ship-based Measurements (드론과 선박을 동시 활용한 내만에서의 GOCI-II 산출물 검증)

  • Baek, Seungil;Koh, Sooyoon;Lim, Taehong;Jeon, Gi-Seong;Do, Youngju;Jeong, Yujin;Park, Sohyeon;Lee, Yongtak;Kim, Wonkook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.609-625
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    • 2022
  • Validation of satellite data products is critical for subsequent analysis that is based on the data. Particularly, performance of ocean color products in turbid and shallow near-land ocean areas has been questioned for long time for its difficulty that stems from the complex optical environment with varying distribution of water constituents. Furthermore, validation with ship-based or station-based measurements has also exhibited clear limitation in its spatial scale that is not compatible with that of satellite data. This study firstly performed validation of major GOCI-II products such as remote sensing reflectance, chlorophyll-a concentration, suspended particulate matter, and colored dissolved organic matter, using the in-situ measurements collected from ship-based field campaign. Secondly, this study also presents preliminary analysis on the use of drone images for product validation. Multispectral images were acquired from a MicaSense RedEdge camera onboard a UAV to compensate for the significant scale difference between the ship-based measurements and the satellite data. Variation of water radiance in terms of camera altitude was analyzed for future application of drone images for validation. Validation conducted with a limited number of samples showed that GOCI-II remote sensing reflectance at 555 nm is overestimated more than 30%, and chlorophyll-a and colored dissolved organic matter products exhibited little correlation with in-situ measurements. Suspended particulate matter showed moderate correlation with in-situ measurements (R2~0.6), with approximately 20% uncertainty.

The Family and Individual in the Transmedia Storytelling of Young Adult Narratives (청소년서사의 트랜스미디어 스토리텔링에 나타나는 가족과 개인)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-262
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    • 2021
  • This thesis focuses on Wandeuki and Elegant Lies - novels written by Kim Ryeo-reong and adapted into the film by Director Lee Han; this thesis analyzes the process of storytelling being transformed as the media is converted. Also, this thesis discusses cultural-political implications of transmedia storytelling where different narrative responses coexist concerning post-IMF family disorganization and "individualization." First of all, this thesis critically reviews existing discourses on the concept of transmedia storytelling and refers to 'transfictionality' the narratological concept of Marie-Laure Ryan in order to look into media conversion storytelling that starts from original novels. The novels Wandeuki and Elegant Lies show two aspects of "individualization" that adopts existential conditions of family disorganization. Wandeuki deviates from patriarchal family romance through self-discovery and exhibits loose family bond, which is something similar to companionship of close individuals. Elegant Lies shows individualization of pain by portraying a teenager who found herself completely isolated, while showing that it is impossible for the people left behind to mourn. On the other hand, director Lee Han's films and show stories in which family members, who are confronting family dissolution, rediscover and restore their families against family dissolution. The film promotes the expansion of family community through multicultural identity, and the film completes condolence of the people left behind by having the remaining families survive as survivors of suicide. The storyworld of the novels puts emphasis on 'self-discovery' of individual adolescents, while the storyworld of the movies puts emphasis on 'rediscovery of family'. Through transformation of storytelling - especially the redesigning of narrative structures called "modification" - transmedia storytelling shows that the relationship between media-converted texts is far from "faithful representation," but rather, shows conflicting themes and perspectives. With a reference point of 'the emergence of character' transmedia storytelling, which is predicated on the original work but aims to free itself from the original work by transforming storytelling through media conversion, opens up polyphonic storyworld by creating heterogeneous voices. In the post IMF-era, where uncertainty mounts over family dissolution and individualization, polyphonic storyworld created by transmedia storytelling provides an opportunity to experience disparate desires over individual freedom/risk and complacency toward community. We can call this the cultural-political implication of transmedia storytelling based on transferring, transcednding, and transforming.

Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals Migrated from Plastic Food Utensils, Containers, and Packaging Distributed in Korea (국내 유통 식품용 플라스틱 기구 및 용기, 포장의 중금속 위해도 평가)

  • Kyung Youn, Lee;Hyung Soo, Kim;Dae Yong, Jang;Ye Ji, Koo;Seung Ha, Lee;Hye Bin, Yeo;Ji Su, Yoon;Kyung-Min, Lim;Jaeyun, Choi
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2022
  • Heavy metals can be intentionally or unintentionally introduced into plastic food utensils, containers, and packaging (PFUCP) as additives or contaminants, which can be ingested with food by humans. Here, seven-heavy metals (lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium, antimony, copper, and manganese) with toxicity concerns were selected, and risk assessment was done by establishing their migration from 137 PFUCP products made of 16 materials distributed in Korea. Migration of heavy metals was examined by applying 4% acetic acid as a food simulant (70℃, 30 minutes) to the PFUCP products. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was employed for the analysis of migrated heavy metals, and the reliability of quantitative results was confirmed by checking linearity, LOD, LOQ, recovery, precision, and expanded uncertainty. As a result of monitoring, heavy metals were detected at a level of non-detection to 8.76 ± 11.87 ㎍/L and most of the heavy metals investigated were only detected at trace amounts of less than 1 ㎍/L on average. However, antimony migrated from PET products was significantly higher than other groups. Risk assessment revealed that all the heavy metals investigated were safe with a margin of exposure above 311. Collectively, we demonstrated that heavy metals migrated from PFUCP products distributed in Korea appear to be within the safe range.

Comparison between Solar Radiation Estimates Based on GK-2A and Himawari 8 Satellite and Observed Solar Radiation at Synoptic Weather Stations (천리안 2A호와 히마와리 8호 기반 일사량 추정값과 종관기상관측망 일사량 관측값 간의 비교)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2023
  • Solar radiation that is measured at relatively small number of weather stations is one of key inputs to crop models for estimation of crop productivity. Solar radiation products derived from GK-2A and Himawari 8 satellite data have become available, which would allow for preparation of input data to crop models, especially for assessment of crop productivity under an agrivoltaic system where crop and power can be produced at the same time. The objective of this study was to compare the degree of agreement between the solar radiation products obtained from those satellite data. The sub hourly products for solar radiation were collected to prepare their daily summary for the period from May to October in 2020 during which both satellite products for solar radiation were available. Root mean square error (RMSE) and its normalized error (NRMSE) were determined for daily sum of solar radiation. The cumulative values of solar radiation for the study period were also compared to represent the impact of the errors for those products on crop growth simulations. It was found that the data product from the Himawari 8 satellite tended to have smaller values of RMSE and NRMSE than that from the GK-2A satellite. The Himawari 8 satellite product had smaller errors at a large number of weather stations when the cumulative solar radiation was compared with the measurements. This suggests that the use of Himawari 8 satellite products would cause less uncertainty than that of GK2-A products for estimation of crop yield. This merits further studies to apply the Himawari 8 satellites to estimation of solar power generation as well as crop yield under an agrivoltaic system.

A Study on the Effect of Organizational Trust of the Container Terminal Operators' Employee on Organizational Citizenship Behavior -Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Organizational Support- (컨테이너터미널 운영사 구성원의 조직신뢰가 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향 -조직적 후원의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ik-Seong;Seon, Hwa;Kim, Hyun-Deok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.65-100
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the effects of organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee on organizational citizenship behavior and the moderating effect of organizational support in the relationship between the two variables. In order to efficiently achieve the purpose of this study, an empirical analysis was conducted by distributing a literature review and a questionnaire, and the results of the study are as follows... First, the organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee was found to have a significant positive (+) effect on organizational citizenship behavior, and trust in the company appeared to be more important than trust in the superior, indicating trust in the institutional aspect. This means that formation has more influence on organizational citizenship behavior... Second, it was confirmed that the organizational support of the container terminal operators' employee can lead to active participation in organizational citizenship behavior through the expansion of educational compensatory support. Third, among the organizational support of container terminal operators, emotional support and educational compensatory support were found to have a partial moderating effect on the relationship between organizational trust and organizational citizenship behavior." Emotional support has a moderating effect on caring and active participation behaviors in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behaviors, and a moderating effect on caring, active participation, and non-complaining behaviors in the relationship between trust in superiors and organizational citizenship behaviors. It was analyzed that there is Compensatory educational support has a moderating effect on altruistic, caring, active participation, and non-complaining behavior in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behavior. It was analyzed that there was a moderating effect on active participation and non-complaining behavior. These analysis results mean that members' trust in the company further increases through the container terminal operator's emotional support and educational reward support. As uncertainty grows, it is very important to increase the trust of organizational members in the organization. sense of belonging to the organization, Emotional support that can increase immersion, improvement of work environment, provision of educational opportunities, and education-compensatory support such as a fair compensation system will increase organizational trust and induce effective organizational citizenship behavior to realize sustainable growth of the organization.

Comparison of rainfall-runoff performance based on various gridded precipitation datasets in the Mekong River basin (메콩강 유역의 격자형 강수 자료에 의한 강우-유출 모의 성능 비교·분석)

  • Kim, Younghun;Le, Xuan-Hien;Jung, Sungho;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Gihae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2023
  • As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

Development of Carbon Emission Factors and Biomass Allometric Equations for Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Platanus occidentalis in Urban Forests (정주지의 메타세쿼이아와 양버즘나무의 탄소 배출 계수 및 바이오매스 상대생장식 개발)

  • Jun-Young Jung;Subin Im;Hyun-Jun Kim;Kye-Han Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to develop biomass allometric equations and estimate carbon emission factors, such as the wood density, biomass-expansion factor, and root-to-shoot ratio, for Platanus occidentalis and Metasequoia glyptostroboides planted in urban areas. Twenty M. glyptostroboides and 25 P. occidentalis trees were harvested, and the dry weights and stem volumes of stems, branches, leaves, and roots (>5 mm) were measured. The wood densities of M. glyptostroboides and P. occidentalis were 0.293 ± 0.008 g cm-3 and 0.509 ± 0.018 g cm-3, and the biomass-expansion factors were 1.738 ± 0.031 and 1.561 ± 0.035. The root-to-shoot ratios were 0.446 ± 0.009 and 0.402 ± 0.012. The uncertainty tests (coefficient of variation, %) gave 2.8% and 3.5% values for wood density, 1.8% and 2.3% for biomass-expansion factor, and 2.1% and 2.9% for root-to-shoot ratio, respectively. Among the developed allometric equations, Model I using the diameter at breast height (DBH) was suitable. The allometric equations of M. glyptostroboides and P. occidentalis above ground were y = 1.679 (DBH)1.315 and y = 0.505 (DBH)1.896, and the allometric equations of the root and total were y = 0.746 (DBH)1.315, y = 0.301 (DBH)1.751, y = 2.422 (DBH)1.316, and y = 0.787 (DBH)1.858. If the carbon-emission factors of this study and biomass allometric equations of the three developed models are used to estimate the carbon storage and biomass of urban forests, errors caused by not considering the use of fixed factors and the environmental differences can be reduced.

Evaluation of estuary reservoir management based on robust decision making considering water use-flood control-water quality under Climate Change (이수-치수-수질을 고려한 기후변화 대응 로버스트 기반 담수호 관리 평가)

  • Kim, Seokhyeon;Hwang, Soonho;Kim, Sinae;Lee, Hyunji;Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Jihye;Kang, Moonseong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.419-429
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    • 2023
  • The objective of this study was to determine the management water level of an estuary reservoir considering three aspects: the water use, flood control and water quality, and to use a robust decision-making to consider uncertainty due to climate change. The watershed-reservoir linkage model was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water level and water quality. Five management level alternatives ranging from -1.7 El.m to 0.2 El.m were evaluated under the SSP1, 2, 3, and 5 scenariosof the ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model. Performance indicators based on period-reliability were calculated for robust decision-making considering the three aspects, and regret was used as a decision indicator to identify the alternatives with the minimum maximum regret. Flood control failure increased as the management level increased, while the probability of water use failure increased as the management level decreased. The highest number of failures occurred under the SSP5 scenario. In the water quality sector, the change in water quality was relatively small with an increase in the management level due to the increase in reservoir volume. Conversely, a decrease in the management level resulted in a more significant change in water quality. In the study area, the estuary reservoir was found to be problematic when the change in water quality was small, resulting in more failures.