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Evaluation of short-term water demand forecasting using ensemble model (앙상블 모형을 이용한 단기 용수사용량 예측의 적용성 평가)

  • So, Byung-Jin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Gu, Ja-Young;Na, Bong-Kil;Kim, Byung-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.377-389
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The concepts was demonstrated through application to observed from water plant (A) in the South Korea. Various statistics (e.g. the efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, and a maximum error rate) were evaluated to investigate model efficiency. The ensemble based model with an cross-validate prediction procedure showed better predictability for water demand forecasting at different temporal resolutions. In particular, the performance of the ensemble model on hourly water demand data showed promising results against other individual prediction schemes.

Comparison of CME radial velocities from the flux rope model and the ice cream cone model

  • Kim, Tae-Hyeon;Moon, Yong-Jae;Na, Hyeon-Ok
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.28.2-28.2
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    • 2011
  • Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are enormous eruptions of plasma ejected from the Sun into interplanetary space, and mainly responsible for geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle events. It is very important to infer their direction of propagation, speed and their 3-dimensional configurations in terms of space weather forecast. Two STEREO satellites provide us with 3-dimensional stereoscopic measurements. Using the STEREO observations, we can determine the 3-dimensional structure and radial velocity of the CME. In this study, we applied three different methods to the 2008 April 26 event: (1) Ice cream Cone Model by Xue (2005) using the SOHO/LASCO data, (2) Flux rope model by Thernisien (2009) using the STEREO/SECCHI data, (3) Flux rope model with zero angle using the STEREO/SECCHI data. The last method in which separation angle of flux rope is zero, is similar to the ice cream cone model morphologically. The comparison shows that the radial speeds from three methods are estimated to be about 750km/s and are within ${\pm}120km/s$. We will extend this comparison to other CMEs observed by STEREO and SOHO/LASCO.

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Comparison to Cone Models for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

  • Na, Hyeon-Ock;Moon, Yong-Jae
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.28.3-28.3
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    • 2011
  • Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are mainly responsible for the most severe geomagnetic storms. To minimize the projection effect of the HCMEs observed by coronagraphs, several cone models have been suggested. These models allow us to determine the geometrical and kinematic parameters of HCMEs : radial speed, source location, angular width, and the angle between the central axis of the cone and the plane of the sky. In this study, we compare these parameters form two representative cone models (the ice-cream cone model and the asymmetric cone model) using well-observed HCMEs from 2001 to 2002. And we obtain the root mean square error (rms error) between observed projection speeds and calculated projection speeds for both cone models. It is found that the average rms speed error (89 km/s) of the asymmetric cone model is a little smaller than that (107 km/s) of the ice-cream cone models, implying that the radial speeds from both models are reasonably estimated. We also find that the radial speeds obtained from two models are similar to each other with the correlation coefficient of about 0.8.

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Optimization of Flexible Multibody Dynamic Systems Using Equivalent Static Load Method (등가정하중을 이용한 유연다물체 동역학계의 구조최적설계)

  • 강병수;박경진
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.48-54
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    • 2004
  • Generally, structural optimization is carried out based on external static loads. All forces have dynamic characteristics in the real world. Mathematical optimization with dynamic loads is extremely difficult in a large-scale problem due to the behaviors in the time domain. In practical applications, it is customary to transform the dynamic loads into static loads by dynamic factors, design codes, and etc. But the optimization results with the unreasonably transformed loads cannot give us good solutions. Recently, a systematic transformation has been proposed as an engineering algorithm. Equivalent static loads are made to generate the same displacement field as the one from dynamic loads at each time step of dynamic analysis. Thus, many load cases are used as the multiple loading conditions which are not costly to include in modem structural optimization. In this research, the proposed algorithm is applied to the optimization of flexible multibody dynamic systems. The equivalent static load is derived from the equations of motion of a flexible multibody dynamic system. A few examples that have been solved before are solved to be compared with the results from the proposed algorithm.

Preference and Consumption Pattern of Horticultural Species in the Offshore Homestead Forest of Bangladesh

  • Masum, Kazi Mohammad;Mamun, Abdullah Al;Mamun-Or-Rashid, Mohammad;Abdullah-Al-Mamun, M. M.;Islam, Mohammad Nabidul
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2012
  • An explanatory survey was conducted to assess preference and consumption pattern of horticultural species, their sources, location-wise planting preferences and diversity of these species in the rural homestead forest of the offshore island of Bangladesh. Assessment was done through multistage random sampling. Based on homestead size respondents were categorized into small (<0.05 ha), medium (0.05-0.25 ha) and large (>0.25 ha) and twenty from each category were selected randomly for the study. The study revealed that most of the farmer (75.5%) preferred to plant fruit tree species for future plantation followed by timber species (62.2%). But fruit-bearing plants were being gradually replaced by some exotic timber species such as Swietenia mahagoni, Acacia auriculiformis, Tectona grandis, Eucalyptus spp., etc. Diversity and abundance of fruit species was found higher in almost all homestead. A total of 41 horticultural species were identified and seven horticultural species among them were recognized as the most preferred ones in the study area. Consumption pattern was chiefly to meet the nutritional demand and to gain a quick monetary benefit. Average annual income from horticultural species was 7,183.33 Taka (US$102).

A Study on the Main Categories and Educational Influence of Chinese Ancient Humanism (중국 고대 인성론의 주요 범주와 교육적 영향)

  • JANG, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2016
  • Human development is the important role of education. There were thinkers of China emphasized the importance of education. These are divided into two general point of view. One theory is that as the representative of Mencius, Xuncius. Environment and education will be acquired this means that there is a crucial human development. $S{\grave{o}}ng$, $M{\acute{i}}ng$ dynasty came to the training began to do research for a decisive action. The other is to represent the viewpoint of Dongzhongshu, $H{\acute{a}}nyu$. According to their education was not to transcend the inherent limitations. Educator of ancient China have had a perspective that humanity can change. Humans show the progress theory emphasizes the potential of toughness as compared to the effect of the training point of view was divided into three classes emphasize the birth. Debate and the search for the humanity of the ancient educator had left us a valuable ideological material. Their perspective on a variety of personality is judged that there are many still take part in educational as well as the value of exploring far today.

Small-scale structures in the dust cloud associated with 17P/Holmes outburst

  • Ham, Ji-Beom;Ishiguro, Masateru;Kuroda, Daisuke;Fukushima, Hideo;Watanabe, Jun-Ichi
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.92-92
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    • 2010
  • A short-period comet, 17P/Holmes, is one of the most outstanding comets because of the outburs in 2007. It orbits the sun at the distance between 2.1AU and 5.2 AU with the orbital period of 6.9 year. On 2007 October 23, its brightness was suddenly increased by about a million times from 17 mag to 2.5 mag. We made observations of 17P/Holmes soon after the outburst on October 25, 27 and 28, using a 105cm telescope at the Ishigakijima Astronomical observatory, Japan. We took the images with V, R and I-band filters simultaneously. Total exposure times are 15 (October 25), 69 (October 27), and 37 (October 28) minute in each filter. The composite images provide good signal to noise ratio and help us to recognize faint structures embedded in the dust cloud. We examined a sequence of images using a digital filter that enhances the small-scale structures. As the result of the data analysis, we confirm (1) the radial expanded structure coming out from the nucleus of comet, and (2) dozens of blobs that moved radially away from the nucleus. In this presentation, we introduce the observations and the data reductions, and consider the origins of these fine structure.

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Determination of Degraded Properties of Vibrating Laminated Composite Plates for Different Layup Sequences (적층배열 변화에 따른 진동하는 복합재료 적층 구조의 미시역학적 물성변화 추정)

  • Kim, Gyu-Dong;Lee, Sang-Youl
    • Composites Research
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a method to detect the fiber property variation of laminated GFRP plates from natural frequency response data. The combined finite element analysis using ABAQUS and the inverse algorithm described in this paper may allow us not only to detect the deteriorated elements from the mirco-mechanical point of view but also to find their numbers, locations, and the extent of damage. To solve the inverse problem using the combined method, this study uses several natural frequencies instead of mode shapes in a structure as the measured data. Several numerical results show that the proposed system is computationally efficient in identifying fiber stiffness degradation for complex structures such as composites with various layup sequences.

Mapping Vegetation Volume in Urban Environments by Fusing LiDAR and Multispectral Data

  • Jung, Jinha;Pijanowski, Bryan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2012
  • Urban forests provide great ecosystem services to population in metropolitan areas even though they occupy little green space in a huge gray landscape. Unfortunately, urbanization inherently results in threatening the green infrastructure, and the recent urbanization trends drew great attention of scientists and policy makers on how to preserve or restore green infrastructure in metropolitan area. For this reason, mapping the spatial distribution of the green infrastructure is important in urban environments since the resulting map helps us identify hot green spots and set up long term plan on how to preserve or restore green infrastructure in urban environments. As a preliminary step for mapping green infrastructure utilizing multi-source remote sensing data in urban environments, the objective of this study is to map vegetation volume by fusing LiDAR and multispectral data in urban environments. Multispectral imageries are used to identify the two dimensional distribution of green infrastructure, while LiDAR data are utilized to characterize the vertical structure of the identified green structure. Vegetation volume was calculated over the metropolitan Chicago city area, and the vegetation volume was summarized over 16 NLCD classes. The experimental results indicated that vegetation volume varies greatly even in the same land cover class, and traditional land cover map based above ground biomass estimation approach may introduce bias in the estimation results.

Comparative Study on Surrogate Modeling Methods for Rapid Electromagnetic Forming Analysis

  • Lee, Seungmin;Kang, Beom-Soo;Lee, Kyunghoon
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2018
  • Electromagnetic forming is a type of high-speed forming process to deform a workpiece through a Lorentz force. As the high strain rate in an electromagnetic-forming simulation causes infeasibility in determining constitutive parameters, we employed inverse parameter estimation in the previous study. However, the inverse parameter estimation process required us to spend considerable time, which leads to an increase in computational cost. To overcome the computational obstacle, in this research, we applied two types of surrogate modeling methods and compared them to each other to evaluate which model is best for the electromagnetic-forming simulation. We exploited an artificial neural network and we reduced-order modeling methods. During the construction of a reduced-order model, we extracted orthogonal bases with proper orthogonal decomposition and predicted basis coefficients by utilizing an artificial neural network. After the construction of the surrogate models, we verified the artificial neural network and reduced-order models through training and testing samples. As a result, we determined the artificial neural network model is slightly more accurate than the reduced-order model. However, the construction of the artificial neural network model requires a considerably larger amount of time than that of the reduced-order model. Thus, a reduced order modeling method is more efficient than an artificial neural network for estimating the electromagnetic forming and for the rapid approximation of structural simulations which needs repetitive runs.