• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.585-597
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• 2007

The characteristics of the rainfall events on the Korean peninsula have been investigated by means of regional and global observational data collected from 1954 to 2004 with an emphasis on extreme cases $80\;mm\;day^{-1}$. According to our analysis, long-term annual rainfall anomalies show an increasing trend. This trend is pronounced in the month of August, when both the amount of monthly rainfall and the frequency of extreme events increase significantly. Composite maps on August during the 8 wet years reveal warm SST anomalies over the eastern Philippine Sea which are associated with enhanced convection and vertical motion and intensified positive SLP over central Eurasia during August. The rainfall pattern suggests that the most significant increase in moisture supply over the southern parts of China and Korea in August is associated with positive SLP changes over Eurasia and negative SLP changes over the subtropical western Pacific off the east coast of south China. The frequent generation of typhoons over the warm eastern Philippine Sea and their tracks appear to influence the extreme rainfall events in Korea during the month of August. The typhoons in August mainly passed the western coast of Korea, resulting in the frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events in this region. Furthermore, anomalous cyclonic circulations over the eastern Philippine Sea also promoted the generation of tropical cyclones. The position of pressure systems - positive SLP over Eurasia and negative SLP over the subtropical Pacific - in turn provided a pathway for typhoons. The moisture is then effectively transported further north toward Korea and east toward the southern parts of China during the extreme rainfall period.

• 대기
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.135-145
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• 2007

We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제31권4B호
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• pp.369-376
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• 2011

마산항, 부산항 등 남동해안의 폭풍해일을 산정하기 위해 3차원 및 2차원 폭풍해일 모델을 구축하여 2003년 태풍 "매미"에 의한 폭풍해일을 수치계산하였다. 태풍 "매미"는 2003년 9월 12일 21시에 중심기압 950 hPa인 상태로 남해안에 상륙하였다. 마산항에서 태풍 "매미"에 의한 peak 시 폭풍해일의 현장관측치는 230 cm, 3차원 모델에 의한 계산결과는 238 cm, 2차원 모델에 의한 계산치는 208 cm이다. 부산항에서 관측된 폭풍해일은 89 cm, 3차원 모델과 2차원 모델에 의한 계산치는 각각 91 cm, 79 cm이다. 본 연구에 의한 3차원 폭풍해일 모델은 현지 폭풍해일을 거의 정확하게 추산하였다. 3차원 모델이 2차원 모델보다 폭풍해일의 peak 시에 현지 폭풍해일을 보다 정확하게 해석하였다. 또한, 2003년 태풍 "매미" 통과시 폭풍류를 수치계산하였다. 마산만 내에서 태풍으로 발생한 표층 유속은 30~60 cm/sec 크기로 만내로 유입하고, 저층에서는 20~40 cm/sec로 마산만에서 외해로 유출하는 흐름패턴을 보여주고 있다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.257-270
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• 2017

Solar activity is known to be linked to changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Nonetheless, for other types of extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), the available evidence is less conclusive. In this study the modulation of TC genesis over the western North Pacific by the solar activity is investigated, in comparison with a large-scale environmental parameter, i.e., El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, we have obtained the best track data for TCs in the western North Pacific from 1977 to 2016, spanning from the solar cycle 21 to the solar cycle 24. We have confirmed that in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods TCs tend to form in the southeast, reach its maximum strength in the southeast, and end its life as TSs in the northeast, compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods are found to last longer compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. Furthermore, TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods have a lower central pressure at their maximum strength than those occurring in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. We have found that TCs occurring in the solar maximum periods resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. We have also found that TCs occurring in the solar descending periods somehow resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. To make sure that it is not due to the ENSO effect, we have excluded TCs both in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods and in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods from the data set and repeated the analysis. In addition to this test, we have also reiterated our analysis twice with TCs whose maximum sustained winds speed exceeds 17 m/s, instead of 33 m/s, as well as TCs designated as a typhoon, which ends up with the same conclusions.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.295-305
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• 2010

국내 경사식 방파제는 거의 매년 태풍 피해를 지속적으로 입고 있지만 피복블록의 침식피해를 정량적으로 분석한 사례가 드물다. 본 논문에서는 피복블록의 침식을 상대피해로 표준화하여 나타내었다. 블록의 이탈 개수가 조사된 경우에는 이를 블록의 전체 개수로 나누어 상대피해를 계산하였으며, 피해 복구 비용이 조사된 경우에는 현재 가치로 환산한 복구 비용과 상대피해의 관계를 이용하여 상대피해를 산정하였다. 상대 피해는 태풍 매개변수인 중심기압 및 최대풍속과 지역별로 뚜렷한 상관관계를 보였다. 또한 기존 누적 피해 계산 방법 중에서 합리적 방법을 선정하기 위해 수리모형 실험결과와 두 가지 수치 모의 방법을 비교하였다. 본 연구에서 Melby and Kobayashi (1998) 방법이 합리적임을 증명하였고 이 방법으로 계산된 상대피해를 관측된 상대피해와 비교하였다. 여수항 동방파제에서 관측된 상대피해와 수치 모의 결과는 잘 일치하지만 나머지 방파제에서는 상당한 차이를 보였다. 이는 기후변화에 따른 태풍 강도의 증가로 방파제의 설계파고보다 큰 파고가 사용년수 동안에 발생하여 실제 상대피해가 증가된 것으로 추정된다.