• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• v.33 no.4
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.4 no.3
• /
• pp.75-83
• /
• 1984

The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; $P_f=M/N$ N: Total number of trials M: Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived. from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The $F_3/F_2$ ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. From the two models (normal, beta) considered for the distribution of the factor of safety, the beta distribution generally provides lager than normal distribution. 4. Results obtained using the beta and normal models are presented in a nomgraph relating slope height and slop angle to probability of failure.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• v.4 no.4
• /
• pp.161-171
• /
• 2015

Alternative binary offset carrier (AltBOC) signals can be approximated by four synchronized direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) signals, each pair of which is a quadrature phase shift keyed (QPSK) signal at a different frequency. Therefore, depending on the strength of an incoming AltBOC signal, an acquisition technique can reduce the mean acquisition time (MAT) by searching the four DSSS signals asynchronously; the search for each of the four DSSS signals can start at one of the evenly separated hypotheses on the two-dimensional hypothesis space. And detection sensitivity can be improved by multiple levels when different numbers of search results for the same hypothesis are combined. In this paper, we propose a fast AltBOC acquisition technique that has an asynchronous search strategy and efficiently utilizes the output of the four search results to increase the sensitivity level when sensitivity improvement is needed. We provide a complete theoretical analysis and demonstrate with numerous Monte Carlo simulations that the MAT of the proposed technique is much smaller than conventional AltBOC acquisition techniques.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
• /
• 2006.05a
• /
• pp.15-19
• /
• 2006

A pulsed laser ablation deposition (PLAD) technique is an excellent method for the fabrication of amorphous carbon (a-C) films, because it can generate highly energetic carbon clusters on a substrate. This paper was focused on the understanding and analysis of the motion of C particles in laser ablation assisted by Ar plasmas. The simulation has carried out under the pressure P=50 mTorr of Ar plasmas. Two-dimensional hybrid model consisting of fluid and Monte-Carlo models was developed and three kinds of the ablated particles which are carbon atom (C), ion ($C^+$) and electron were considered in the calculation of particle method. The motions of energetic $C^+$ and C deposited upon the substrate were investigated and compared. The interactions between the ablated particles and Ar gas plasmas were discussed.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.34 no.6
• /
• pp.779-799
• /
• 2010

In order to consider high-order effects on the actual limit state function, a new response surface method is proposed for structural reliability analysis by the use of high-order approximation concept in this study. Hermite polynomials are used to determine the highest orders of input random variables, and the sampling points for the determination of highest orders are located on Gaussian points of Gauss-Hermite integration. The cross terms between two random variables, only in case that their corresponding percent contributions to the total variation of limit state function are significant, will be added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. As a result, significant reduction in computational cost is achieved with this strategy. Due to the addition of cross terms, the additional sampling points, laid on two-dimensional Gaussian points off axis on the plane of two significant variables, are required to determine the coefficients of the approximated limit state function. All available sampling points are employed to construct the final response surface function. Then, Monte Carlo Simulation is carried out on the final approximation response surface function to estimate the failure probability. Due to the use of high order polynomial, the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional second-order or linear response surface method. It also provides much more efficient solutions than the available high-order response surface method with less loss in accuracy. The efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method compared with those of various response surface methods available are illustrated by five numerical examples.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
• /
• v.50 no.10
• /
• pp.13-20
• /
• 2013

Currently, SEAMCAT has been widely used as a tool to evaluate the effects of interference among wireless communication systems. In the previous work, we have incorporated the ITU-R P.526 pathloss model to the existing SEAMCAT in order to support the capability of interference evaluation taking into account any specific terrain characteristics. Along with this, we have implemented a terrain display function based on the Google map. However, the two-dimensional Google map based display is not effective in helping users to figure out some terrain features including the elevation variation in a given region. In order to alleviate this difficulty, we have incorporated the three-dimensional terrain display using the API of the Google earth to the existing SEAMCAT and provided the capability of viewing the positions of the associated communication systems, the variation of the carrier intensity and interference intensity in location, shadow region indication, and line-of-sight analysis and presented an example of interference evaluation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
• /
• 2006.12a
• /
• pp.96-100
• /
• 2006

A pulsed laser ablation deposition (PLAD) technique is an excellent method for the fabrication of amorphous carbon (a-C) films. This paper was focused on the understanding and analysis of the motion of carbon atom (C) and carbon ion ($C^+$) particles in laser ablation assisted by Ar plasmas. The simulation has carried out under the pressure P=10~100 mTorr of Ar plasmas. Two-dimensional hybrid model consisting of fluid and Monte-Carlo models was developed and three kinds of the ablated particles which are C, $C^+$ and electron were considered in the calculation of particle method. The motions of energetic $C^+$ and C deposited upon the substrate were investigated and compared.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.48 no.9
• /
• pp.729-741
• /
• 2015

This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.