• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.329-339
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• 2004

The main objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based two-dimensional model for the simulation of rainfall-runoff process and overland flow of a watershed. The tasks of this study are summarized: to develop a two-dimensional model for overland flow and to construct a rainfall-runoff simulation system linked with GIS. The mathematical formulation of the model incorporates four parts: spatially varied rainfall, spatially distributed infiltration, 1-directional, 4-directional and 8-directional overland flow routing scheme, and one-dimensional channel routing scheme. For the development of stochastic model, Monte Carlo simulation method has been directly integrated into the model. GIS using Arc/Info and ArcView has been applied to prepare the model input data(elevation, soil type, rainfall data, etc.) for a simulation and to demonstrate the simulation results.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.10
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• pp.1163-1170
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• 2009

Reliability analysis is of great importance in the advanced product design, which is to evaluate reliability due to the associated uncertainties. There are three types of uncertainties: the first is the aleatory uncertainty which is related with inherent physical randomness that is completely described by a suitable probability model. The second is the epistemic uncertainty, which results from the lack of knowledge due to the insufficient data. These two uncertainties are encountered in the input variables such as dimensional tolerances, material properties and loading conditions. The third is the metamodel uncertainty which arises from the approximation of the response function. In this study, an integrated method for the reliability analysis is proposed that can address all these uncertainties in a single Bayesian framework. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is employed to facilitate the simulation of the posterior distribution. Mathematical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed method.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.27 no.10
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• pp.93-104
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• 2011

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic steady seepage analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil permeability is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the finite element method to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil permeability. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the seepage behavior of soil foundation beneath water retaining structure with a single sheet pile wall. The results showed that the probabilistic framework can be used to efficiently consider the various flow patterns caused by the spatial variability of the soil permeability in seepage assessment for a soil foundation beneath water retaining structures.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.543-552
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• 2023

The design of foundations based on a deterministic approach may not be safe and reliable occasionally, since soils sometimes show considerable spatial variability, and thus, significant uncertainties in turn affect the estimation of footing bearing capacity. The design of footing on cohesionless stratums on the basis of reliability analysis has not received much attention. This paper performs two-dimensional random finite difference analyses of shallow strip footings on a spatially variable frictional soil considering correlation structure. Friction angle (ϕ) is considered as a log-normally distributed random variable and Monte Carlo Simulation is then performed to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A new approach reliability-based safety factor is defined based on various reliability levels by considering the coefficient of variation of ϕ and correlation length in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The comparison of the probabilistic safety factor and the conventional one illustrates the limitations of the deterministic safety factor and provides insight into how the heterogeneity of soils properties affects the required safety factor. Results show that the conventional safety factor of 3 can be conservative in some cases, especially for soil with low values of mean ϕ and COV_ϕ.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.341-352
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• 2004

In this study(II), the model developed in the previous study(I) has been tested on two cases of constant-slope areas to verify the model applicability. Firstly, an impervious one-dimensional runoff problem has been simulated. Secondly, an impervious two-dimensional runoff problem at a converging plain which consists of a V-shaped section plus a portion of the surface of a cone has been simulated. For each case, the simulation results have good agreements with the observed data. And the model has been applied to actual watersheds, which were the Sulma watershed with 8$\textrm{km}^2$ and the Donggok watershed with 33.2$\textrm{km}^2$, drainage area, respectively. The simulated results agree with observed in terms of discharges at several stations. Monte Carlo simulation was also performed on the same watersheds and the modeling results have been evaluated. The suggested model can be used for real-time forecasting of rainfall-runoff analysis, and will contribute for basinwide flood control in the future.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.2733-2742
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• 2020

This paper presents an assessment of applicability of the multigroup cross sections generated with Monte Carlo tools to the fast reactor analysis based on transport calculations. 33-group cross section sets were generated for simple one- (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) sodium-cooled fast reactor problems using the SERPENT code and applied to deterministic steady-state and depletion calculations. Relative to the reference continuous-energy SERPENT results, with the transport corrected P₀ scattering cross section, the k-eff value was overestimated by 506 and 588 pcm for 1-D and 2-D problems, respectively, since anisotropic scattering is important in fast reactors. When the scattering order was increased to P₅, the 1-D and 2-D problem errors were increased to 577 and 643 pcm, respectively. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with the PERSENT code indicated that these large k-eff errors cannot be attributed to the statistical uncertainties of cross sections and they are likely due to the approximate anisotropic scattering matrices determined by scalar flux weighting. The anisotropic scattering cross sections were alternatively generated using the MC²-3 code and merged with the SERPENT cross sections. The mixed cross section set consistently reduced the errors in k-eff, assembly powers, and nuclide densities. For example, in the 2-D calculation with P3 scattering order, the k-eff error was reduced from 634 pcm to -223 pcm. The maximum error in assembly power was reduced from 2.8% to 0.8% and the RMS error was reduced from 1.4% to 0.4%. The maximum error in the nuclide densities at the end of 12-month depletion that occurred in ²³⁷Np was reduced from 3.4% to 1.5%. The errors of the other nuclides are also reduced consistently, for example, from 1.1% to 0.1% for ²³⁵U, from 2.2% to 0.7% for ²³⁸Pu, and from 1.6% to 0.2% for ²⁴¹Pu. These results indicate that the scalar flux weighted anisotropic scattering cross sections of SERPENT may not be adequate for application to fast reactors where anisotropic scattering is important.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.441-457
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• 2018

Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.289-298
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• 2019

Reinforced concrete can be considered as a heterogeneous material consisting of coarse aggregate, mortar mix and reinforcing bars. This paper presents a two-dimensional mesoscopic analysis of reinforced concrete beams using a simple two-phase mesoscopic model for concrete. The two phases of concrete, coarse aggregate and mortar mix are bonded together with reinforcement bars so that inter force transfer will occur through the material surfaces. Monte Carlo's method is used to generate the random aggregate structure using the constitutive model at mesoscale. The generated models have meshed such that there is no material discontinuity within the elements. The proposed model simulates the load-deflection behavior, crack pattern and ultimate load of reinforced concrete beams reasonably well.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.101-113
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• 2010

Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 1994.11a
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• pp.40-45
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• 1994

The TCAD(Technology Computer Aided Design) software tool is a popular name to be able to simulate the semiconductor process and device circuit. We have developed a two-dimensional TCAD software tool included an editor, parser, each process unit, and 2D, 3D graphic routine that is Integrated Environment. The initial grid for numerical analysis is automatically generated with the geometric series that use the user default(given) line and position separated with grid interval and the nodes corresponding to each mesh point stoic the all the possible attribute. Also, we made a data structure called PIF for input or output. Methods of ion implantation in this paper arc Monte Carlo, Gaussian Pearson and Dual-Pearson. Analytical model such as Gaussian, Pearson and Dual-Pearson were considered the multilayer structure and two-dimensional tilted implantation. We simuttaneously calculated the continuity equation of impurity and point defect in diffusion simulation. Oxidation process was simulated by analytical ERFC(Complementary Error Function) model for local oxidation.