• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trial And Error Method

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Estimation of Accident Effectiveness Based Upon the Location of Traffic Signal Using C-G Method (C-G Method를 활용한 신호등 위치에 따른 교통사고 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong Hyun;Kim, Gyu Ho;Kim, Jang Wook;Lee, Soo Beom
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.775-789
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    • 2008
  • The Office for Government Policy Coordination announced in 2006, september that a scheme of pre-signal would show remarkable outcome to reduce traffic accidents. Therefore, the Ministry recommended applying preferentially the pre-signal scheme to enhancement projects for high accident frequency areas. In case that the suggested pre-signal was unilaterally introduced to the enhancement projects at intersections, it might rather cause a big trial and error in terms of traffic safety. Hence, on the basis of quantitative analysis, this study was to indicate a pre-signal's effectiveness to reduce the traffic accidents, to illustrate a trend of the accident type due to the pre-signal, and to introduce intersection type that could be appropriate for the pre-signal. The methodology adopted Comparison-Group Method which was developed by Hauer. Through this methodology, overall effectiveness to reduce the accidents is considered positive but individual effectiveness by intersection and by accident case was different. All cases of the accidents at small scale intersection demonstrated positive results to reduce its accidents, while in case of frontal collision and side-right angle collision out of the accident types, the installation of pre-signal rather caused a negative result increasing the accident in terms of the traffic safety. I hope that this study would be a useful reference for future development of the estimation of accident effectiveness. Thus, when the pre-signal is being installed in the big intersection, it is recommended operating the installation concerning carefully improvements about muliple aspects as traffic operation, traffic facility, human factor etc.

Short-term Traffic States Prediction Using k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm: Focused on Urban Expressway in Seoul (k-NN 알고리즘을 활용한 단기 교통상황 예측: 서울시 도시고속도로 사례)

  • KIM, Hyungjoo;PARK, Shin Hyoung;JANG, Kitae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.158-167
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    • 2016
  • This study evaluates potential sources of errors in k-NN(k-nearest neighbor) algorithm such as procedures, variables, and input data. Previous research has been thoroughly reviewed for understanding fundamentals of k-NN algorithm that has been widely used for short-term traffic states prediction. The framework of this algorithm commonly includes historical data smoothing, pattern database, similarity measure, k-value, and prediction horizon. The outcomes of this study suggests that: i) historical data smoothing is recommended to reduce random noise of measured traffic data; ii) the historical database should contain traffic state information on both normal and event conditions; and iii) trial and error method can improve the prediction accuracy by better searching for the optimum input time series and k-value. The study results also demonstrates that predicted error increases with the duration of prediction horizon and rapidly changing traffic states.

Verification of the Reliability of the Numerical Analysis for the Crash Impact Test of Rotorcraft Fuel Tank (회전익항공기용 연료탱크 충돌충격시험에 대한 수치해석 신뢰성 검증)

  • Kim, Sungchan;Kim, Hyun-Gi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.918-923
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    • 2018
  • The main function of a fuel tank is to store fuel. On the other hand, the structural soundness of the fuel tank is related directly to the survival of the crew in an emergency situation, such as an aircraft crash, and the relevant performance is demonstrated by a crash impact test. Because crash impact tests have a high risk of failure due to the high impact loads, various efforts have been made to minimize the possibility of trial and error in the actual test at the beginning of the design. Numerical analysis performed before the actual test is a part of such efforts. For the results of numerical analysis to be reflected in the design, however, the reliability of numerical analysis needs to be ensured. In this study, the results of numerical analysis and actual test data were compared to ensure the reliability of numerical analysis for the crash impact test of a rotorcraft fuel tank. For the numerical analysis of a crash impact test, LS-DYNA, crash analysis software, was used and the ALE (arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian) technique was applied as the analysis method. To obtain actual test data, strain gages were installed on the metal fittings of the fuel tank and linked to the data acquisition equipment. The strain and stress of the fuel tank fitting were calculated by numerical analysis. The reliability of the numerical analysis was enhanced by assessing the error between the strain measurement of the upper fitting obtained from an actual fuel tank and the strain calculated from numerical analysis.

Policy Modeling for Efficient Reinforcement Learning in Adversarial Multi-Agent Environments (적대적 멀티 에이전트 환경에서 효율적인 강화 학습을 위한 정책 모델링)

  • Kwon, Ki-Duk;Kim, In-Cheol
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.179-188
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    • 2008
  • An important issue in multiagent reinforcement learning is how an agent should team its optimal policy through trial-and-error interactions in a dynamic environment where there exist other agents able to influence its own performance. Most previous works for multiagent reinforcement teaming tend to apply single-agent reinforcement learning techniques without any extensions or are based upon some unrealistic assumptions even though they build and use explicit models of other agents. In this paper, basic concepts that constitute the common foundation of multiagent reinforcement learning techniques are first formulated, and then, based on these concepts, previous works are compared in terms of characteristics and limitations. After that, a policy model of the opponent agent and a new multiagent reinforcement learning method using this model are introduced. Unlike previous works, the proposed multiagent reinforcement learning method utilize a policy model instead of the Q function model of the opponent agent. Moreover, this learning method can improve learning efficiency by using a simpler one than other richer but time-consuming policy models such as Finite State Machines(FSM) and Markov chains. In this paper. the Cat and Mouse game is introduced as an adversarial multiagent environment. And effectiveness of the proposed multiagent reinforcement learning method is analyzed through experiments using this game as testbed.

Improvement of a Planning Technique Based on Heuristic Target Shaping for Stereotactic Radiosurgery (방사선 수술시 경험적 표적 근사화에 근거한 최적화 방법 개선)

  • Oh Seungjong;Choi Kyoung-Sik;Song Ju-Young;Suh Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.176-182
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    • 2005
  • Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a technique to deliver a high dose to a target region and a low dose to a critical organ through only one or a few irradiation. The SRS must be planned exactly. Currently the surgery plan is peformed by trial and error method. There are many questions about the reliability and reproducibility of the plan result. This study Improve each step of the Oh's method based on heuristic target shaping to obtain the better result. The target was reconstructed using cylinders with same height and the neighbored cylinders were combined according to the difference of each center and diameter. Then, spheres were packed within each cylinders by the packing rules. Two virtual targets were used to compare this method with Oh's method. As a result, the numbers of isocenter were successfully reduced - more than $35\%$ and $26\%$ - without serious differences of proscription isodose to tumour volume ratio (PITV) and maximum dose to proscription dose ratio (MDPD). This technique using cylinder piling and sphere packing will be a helpful tool to planner in stereotactic radiosurgery.

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Automatic Calibration of Storage-Function Rainfall-Runoff Model Using an Optimization Technique (최적화(最適化) 기법(技法)에 의한 저유함수(貯留函數) 유출(流出) 모형(模型)의 자동보정(自動補正))

  • Shim, Soon Bo;Kim, Sun Koo;Ko, Seok Ku
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 1992
  • For the real-time control of a multi-purpose reservoir in case of a storm, it is absolutely necessary to forecast accurate flood inflows through a good rainfall-runoff model by calibrating the parameters with the on-line rainfall and water level data transmitted by the telemetering systems. To calibrate the parameters of a runoff model. the trial and error method of manual calibration has been adopted from the subjective view point of a model user. The object of this study is to develop a automatic calibration method using an optimization technique. The pattern-search algorithm was applied as an optimization technique because of the stability of the solution under various conditions. The object function was selected as the sum of the squares of differences between observed and fitted ordinates of the hydrograph. Two historical flood events were applied to verify the developed technique for the automatic calibration of the parameters of the storage-function rainfall-runoff model which has been used for the flood control of the Soyanggang multi-purpose reservoir by the Korea Water Resources Corporation. The developed method was verified to be much more suitable than the manual method in flood forecasting and real-time reservoir controlling because it saves calibration time and efforts in addition to the better flood forecasting capability.

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Intelligent Tuning of the Two Degrees-of-Freedom Proportional-Integral-Derivative Controller On the Distributed Control System for Steam Temperature Control of Thermal Power Plant

  • Dong Hwa Kim;Won Pyo Hong;Seung Hack Lee
    • KIEE International Transaction on Systems and Control
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    • v.2D no.2
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    • pp.78-91
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    • 2002
  • In the thermal power plant, there are six manipulated variables: main steam flow, feedwater flow, fuel flow, air flow, spray flow, and gas recirculation flow. There are five controlled variables: generator output, main steam pressure, main steam temperature, exhaust gas density, and reheater steam temperature. Therefore, the thermal power plant control system is a multinput and output system. In the control system, the main steam temperature is typically regulated by the fuel flow rate and the spray flow rate, and the reheater steam temperature is regulated by the gas recirculation flow rate. However, strict control of the steam temperature must be maintained to avoid thermal stress. Maintaining the steam temperature can be difficult due to heating value variation to the fuel source, time delay changes in the main steam temperature versus changes in fuel flow rate, difficulty of control of the main steam temperature control and the reheater steam temperature control system owing to the dynamic response characteristics of changes in steam temperature and the reheater steam temperature, and the fluctuation of inner fluid water and steam flow rates during the load-following operation. Up to the present time, the Proportional-Integral-Derivative Controller has been used to operate this system. However, it is very difficult to achieve an optimal PID gain with no experience, since the gain of the PID controller has to be manually tuned by trial and error. This paper focuses on the characteristic comparison of the PID controller and the modified 2-DOF PID Controller (Two-Degrees-Freedom Proportional-Integral-Derivative) on the DCS (Distributed Control System). The method is to design an optimal controller that can be operated on the thermal generating plant in Seoul, Korea. The modified 2-DOF PID controller is designed to enable parameters to fit into the thermal plant during disturbances. To attain an optimal control method, transfer function and operating data from start-up, running, and stop procedures of the thermal plant have been acquired. Through this research, the stable range of a 2-DOF parameter for only this system could be found for the start-up procedure and this parameter could be used for the tuning problem. Also, this paper addressed whether an intelligent tuning method based on immune network algorithms can be used effectively in tuning these controllers.

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Methodologies for the Determination of Endogenous Phosphorus Losses in Growing Pigs

  • Alves, Debora Aline;da Rocha, Leonardo Tombesi;dos Santos Camargo, Claudiele Aparecida;Figueiredo, Andriele Medianeira;Ceron, Marcos Speroni;Lucca, Walter;Zanella, Irineo;de Oliveira, Vladimir
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.1632-1638
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    • 2016
  • A study was conducted to compare the endogenous basal losses of phosphorus (EBLP) in pigs fed diets containing gelatin (GEL) or spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) as protein sources and to determine the standardized total tract digestibility (STTD) of phosphorus (P) in SDPP. The trial was carried out at the Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil. Twelve castrated pigs with an initial body weight of 55 kg were individually allotted in metabolic crates during two 12-day periods, each with 7 days of adaptation and 5 days of total fecal collection. The beginning and the end of the collecting periods were determined according to the marker-to-marker approach, using ferric oxide as an indigestible marker. Pigs were submitted to four semi-purified diets, one being a P-free diet with 30% of GEL as the protein source and three were diets with 10%, 20%, and 30% inclusion of SDPP respectively. Data were subjected to analysis of variance and the model included the effects of period, animal and treatments; the results of the three diets with increased levels of SDPP were subjected to linear regression analysis. The intercept of the relation of between ingested P and absorbed P represented the EBLP, while the slope indicated the STTD of P in SDPP. The EBLP means obtained by P-free diet and regression method were compared with the Student t test. The EBLP were 128.95 mg/kg dry matter intake (DMI) and 153.63 mg/kg DMI (standard error = 77.0; p<0.06) using the P-free diet with GEL as the protein source and the regression method, obtained with diets containing increased levels of SDPP, respectively. The apparent digestibility of P was 87.9%, 94.2%, and 92.9% for the treatments containing 10%, 20%, and 30% inclusion of SDPP, respectively. The estimated STTD of P obtained with the linear regression was 97.4%. When the EBLP estimated by the P-free diet was used to corrected the apparent digestibility of P in diets containing SDPP, the STTD of P in SDPP was 96.9%, 98.8%, and 95.9% for 10%, 20%, and 30% SDPP, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that SDPP can replace GEL to estimate the endogenous losses of P. In addition, the STTD of P in SDPP estimated with the P-free diet was 97.2% and it was 97.4% by the regression method, utilizing SDPP.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics in Gokgyochun Basin Using a Runoff Model (유출모형을 이용한 곡교천 유역의 강우-유출 특성 분석)

  • Hwan, Byungl-Ki;Cho, Yong-Soo;Yang, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.404-411
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the HEC-HMS was applied to determine rainfall-runoff processes for the Gokgyuchun basin. Several sub-basins have large-scale reservoirs for agricultural needs and they store large amounts of initial runoff. Three infiltration methods were implemented to reflect the effect of initial loss by reservoirs: 'SCS-CN'(Scheme I), 'SCS-CN' with simple surface method(Scheme II), and 'Initial and Constant rate'(Scheme III). Modeling processes include incorporating three different methods for loss due to infiltration, Clark's UH model for transformation, exponential recession model for baseflow, and Muskingum model for channel routing. The parameters were calibrated using an optimization technique with trial and error method. Performance measures, such as NSE, RAR, and PBIAS, were adopted to aid in the calibration processes. The model performance for those methods was evaluated at Gangcheong station, which is the outlet of study site. Good accuracy in predicting runoff volume and peak flow, and peak time was obtained using the Scheme II and III, considering the initial loss, whereas Scheme I showed low reliability for storms. Scheme III did not show good matches between observed and simulated values for storms with multi peaks. Conclusively, Scheme II provided better results for both single and multi-peak storms. The results of this study can provide a useful tool for decision makers to determine master plans for regional flood control management.

A study on the optimization technique for the plan of slope reinforcement arrangement of soil-nailing in tunnel portal area (터널 갱구사면 쏘일네일링 보강배치계획을 위한 최적화기법 연구)

  • Kim, Byung-Chan;Moon, Hyun-Koo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.569-579
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    • 2016
  • In order to ensure the stability of tunnel portal slope, reinforcement method such as anchors, soil nails and rock bolts have been used in Korea. When selecting slope reinforcement methods in tunnel portal area such as reinforcement arrangement and length, trial and error method can be very time-consuming and it was also not easy to verify the selection of an optimum condition. In this study, using the FISH language embedded in the finite difference code FLAC3D program, the optimization technique was developed with the Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA). After building a database on the soil nailing method in tunnel portal area, this system can be selected to an optimum arrangement plan based on the factor of safety through the FLAC3D analysis. Through the results of numerical analysis, it was confirmed that the number of analysis was decreased by about 8 times when DEA based optimization technique was used compared to the full combination (FC). In case of the design of slope reinforcement in tunnel portal area, if this built-system is used, it is expected that the selection of an optimum arrangement plan can be relatively easier.