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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Cooperative Sales Promotion in Manufacturer-Retailer Channel under Unplanned Buying Potential (비계획구매를 고려한 제조업체와 유통업체의 판매촉진 비용 분담)

  • Kim, Hyun Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.29-53
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    • 2012
  • As so many marketers get to use diverse sales promotion methods, manufacturer and retailer in a channel often use them too. In this context, diverse issues on sales promotion management arise. One of them is the issue of unplanned buying. Consumers' unplanned buying is clearly better off for the retailer but not for manufacturer. This asymmetric influence of unplanned buying should be dealt with prudently because of its possibility of provocation of channel conflict. However, there have been scarce studies on the sales promotion management strategy considering the unplanned buying and its asymmetric effect on retailer and manufacturer. In this paper, we try to find a better way for a manufacturer in a channel to promote performance through the retailer's sales promotion efforts when there is potential of unplanned buying effect. We investigate via game-theoretic modeling what is the optimal cost sharing level between the manufacturer and retailer when there is unplanned buying effect. We investigated following issues about the topic as follows: (1) What structure of cost sharing mechanism should the manufacturer and retailer in a channel choose when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? (2) How much payoff could the manufacturer and retailer in a channel get when unplanned buying effect is strong (or weak)? We focus on the impact of unplanned buying effect on the optimal cost sharing mechanism for sales promotions between a manufacturer and a retailer in a same channel. So we consider two players in the game, a manufacturer and a retailer who are interacting in a same distribution channel. The model is of complete information game type. In the model, the manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader and the retailer is the follower. Variables in the model are as following table. Manufacturer's objective function in the basic game is as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. And retailer's is as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+p_u(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. The model is of four stages in two periods. Stages of the game are as follows. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the first period($w_1$) and cost sharing level of channel sales promotion(${\Psi}$). (Stage 2) Retailer sets retail price of the focal brand($p_1$), the unplanned buying item($p_u$), and sales promotion level(L). (Stage 3) Manufacturer sets wholesale price of the second period($w_2$). (Stage 4) Retailer sets retail price of the second period($p_2$). Since the model is a kind of dynamic games, we try to find a subgame perfect equilibrium to derive some theoretical and managerial implications. In order to obtain the subgame perfect equilibrium, we use the backward induction method. In using backward induction approach, we solve the problems backward from stage 4 to stage 1. By completely knowing follower's optimal reaction to the leader's potential actions, we can fold the game tree backward. Equilibrium of each variable in the basic game is as following table. We conducted more analysis of additional game about diverse cost level of manufacturer. Manufacturer's objective function in the additional game is same with that of the basic game as follows: ${\Pi}={\Pi}_1+{\Pi}_2$, where, ${\Pi}_1=w_1(1+L-p_1)-{\psi}^2$, ${\Pi}_2=w_2(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. But retailer's objective function is different from that of the basic game as follows: ${\pi}={\pi}_1+{\pi}_2$, where, ${\pi}_1=(p_1-w_1)(1+L-p_1)-L(L-{\psi})+(p_u-c)(b+L-p_u)$, ${\pi}_2=(p_2-w_2)(1-{\epsilon}L-p_2)$. Equilibrium of each variable in this additional game is as following table. Major findings of the current study are as follows: (1) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer and retailer had better increase the cost for sales promotion. (2) As the unplanned buying effect gets stronger, manufacturer had better decrease the cost sharing portion of total cost for sales promotion. (3) Manufacturer's profit is increasing function of the unplanned buying effect. (4) All results of (1),(2),(3) are alleviated by the increase of retailer's procurement cost to acquire unplanned buying items. The authors discuss the implications of those results for the marketers in manufacturers or retailers. The current study firstly suggests some managerial implications for the manufacturer how to share the sales promotion cost with the retailer in a channel to the high or low level of the consumers' unplanned buying potential.

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Influences of Forest Management Practices on pH and Electrical Conductivity in the Throughfall and Stemflow with the Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis Dominant Watershed (전나무림, 잣나무림 유역에서 수관통과우와 수간유하수의 수소이온농도 및 전기전도도에 미치는 산림시업의 영향)

  • Jeong, Yong-Ho;Kim, Kyong-Ha;Park, Jae-Hyeon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.1 s.97
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2002
  • This research was conducted to evaluate the effect of forest management practices on pH and electrical conductivity to get fundamental information on water purification capacity after forest operation. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow were sampled at the study sites which consist of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis in Gwangreung Experimental Forest for S months from May to November 1999. Mean pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event was higher in management (thinning and pruning) sites of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis stands than nonmanagement site of Abies holophylla and Pinus koraiensis stands. In addition, pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event showed similar trends which are higher pH in the management sites compared with the non- management sites. This result indicates that managements such as thinning and pruning improve tree butler capacity of rainfall pH. According to the linear regression results, pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.735${\times}$pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+1.849 ($R^2\;=\;0.82$) and pH of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in management sites= 0.863${\times}$pH of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in management sites +1.0242 ($R^2\;=\;0.87$). In case of stemflow pH, pH of the sternflow of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.53${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in non- management sites+2.7709 ($R^2\;=\;0.64$) and pH of the stemflow of the total amount of the event in management sites = 0.5854${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in management sites+2.7045 ($R^2\;=\;0.65$). Electrical conductivity (EC) of the throughfall of the beginning and total amount of the event was highest in non- management site in Abies holophylla, followed by management sites in fsies Abies holophylla, non-management site in Pinus koraiensis, and management sites in Pinus koraiensis stands, respectively. According to the linear regression results, EC of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in non-managementsites = 0.4045${\times}$EC of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+26.766 ($R^2\;=\;0.69$) and EC of the throughfall of the total amount of the event in management sites = 0.6002${\times}$EC of the throughfall of the beginning of the event in management sites+8.0184 ($R^2\;=\;0.54$). In case of stemflow EC, EC of thestemflow of the total amount of the event in non-management sites = 0.6298${\times}$EC of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in non-management sites+11.582 ($R^2\;=\;0.72$) and pH of the stemflow of the total amount of the event in management sites =0.602${\times}$pH of the stemflow of the beginning of the event in management sites+20.783($R^2\;=\;0.49$).

The Process of Establishing a Japanese-style Garden and Embodying Identity in Modern Japan (일본 근대 시기 일본풍 정원의 확립과정과 정체성 구현)

  • An, Joon-Young;Jun, Da-Seul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2023
  • This study attempts to examine the process of establishing a Japanese-style garden in the modern period through the perspectives of garden designers, spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used in their works, and to use it as data for embodying the identity of Korean garden. The results are as follows: First, by incorporating elements associated with Koreanness into the modern garden culture, there are differences in location, presence, and subjectivity when compared to Japan. This reflects Japan's relatively seamless cultural continuity compared to Korea's cultural disconnection during the modern period. Second, prior to the modern period, Japan's garden culture spread and continued to develop throughout the country without significant interruptions. However, during the modern period, the Meiji government promoted the policy of 'civilization and enlightenment (Bunmei-kaika, 文明開化)' and introduced advanced European and American civilizations, leading to the popularity of Western-style architectural techniques. Unfortunately, the rapid introduction of Western culture caused the traditional Japanese culture to be overshadowed. In 1879, British architect Josiah Condor guided Japanese architects and introduced atelier and traditional designs of Japanese gardens into the design. The garden style of Ogawa Jihei VII, a garden designer in Kyoto during the Meiji and Taisho periods, was accepted by influential political and business leaders who sought to preserve Japan's traditional culture. And a protection system of garden was established through the preparation of various laws and regulations. Third, as a comprehensive analysis of Japanese modern gardens, the examination of garden designers, Japanese components, materials, elements, and the Japanese-style showed that Yamagata Aritomo, Ogawa Jihei VII, and Mirei Shigemori were representative garden designers who preserved the Japanese-style in their gardens. They introduced features such as the creation of a Daejicheon(大池泉) garden, which involves a large pond on a spacious land, as well as the naturalistic borrowed scenery method and water flow. Key components of Japanese-style gardens include the use of turf, winding garden paths, and the variation of plant species. Fourth, an analysis of the Japanese-style elements in the target sites revealed that the use of flowing water had the highest occurrence at 47.06% among the individual elements of spatial composition. Daejicheon and naturalistic borrowed scenery were also shown. The use of turf and winding paths were at 65.88% and 78.82%, respectively. The alteration of tree species was relatively less common at 28.24% compared to the application of turf or winding paths. Fifth, it is essential to discover more gardens from the modern period and meticulously document the creators or owners of the gardens, the spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used. This information will be invaluable in uncovering the identity of our own gardens. This study was conducted based on the analysis of the process of establishing the Japanese-style during Japan's modern period, utilizing examples of garden designers and gardens. While this study has limitations, such as the absence of in-depth research and more case studies or specific techniques, it sets the stage for future exploration.

Environmental Interpretation on soil mass movement spot and disaster dangerous site for precautionary measures -in Peong Chang Area- (산사태발생지(山沙汰發生地)와 피해위험지(被害危險地)의 환경학적(環境學的) 해석(解析)과 예방대책(豫防對策) -평창지구(平昌地區)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.11-25
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    • 1979
  • There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.

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Preservation of World Records Heritage in Korea and Further Registry (한국의 세계기록유산 보존 현황 및 과제)

  • Kim, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.27-48
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    • 2005
  • This study investigates the current preservation and management of four records and documentary heritage in Korea that is in the UNESCO's Memory of the World Register. The study analyzes their problems and corresponding solutions in digitizing those world records heritages. This study also reviews additional four documentary books in Korea that are in the wish list to add to UNESCO's Memory of the World Register. This study is organized as the following: Chapter 2 examines the value and meanings of world records and documentary heritage in Korea. The registry requirements and procedures of UNESCO's Memory of the World Register are examined. The currently registered records of Korea include Hunmin-Chongum, the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, the Diaries of the Royal Secretariat (Seungjeongwon Ilgi), and Buljo- Jikji-Simche-Yojeol (vol. II). These records heritage's worth and significance are carefully analyzed. For example, Hunmin-Chongum("訓民正音") is consisted of unique and systematic letters. Letters were delicately explained with examples in its original manual at the time of letter's creation, which is an unparalleled case in the world documentary history. The Annals of the Choson Dynasty("朝鮮王朝實錄") are the most comprehensive historic documents that contain the longest period of time in history. Their truthfulness and reliability in describing history give credits to the annals. The Royal Secretariat Diary (called Seungjeongwon-Ilgi("承政院日記")) is the most voluminous primary resources in history, superior to the Annals of Choson Dynasty and Twenty Five Histories in China. Jikji("直指") is the oldest existing book published by movable metal print sets in the world. It evidences the beginning of metal printing in the world printing history and is worthy of being as world heritage. The review of the four registered records confirms that they are valuable world documentary heritage that transfers culture of mankind to next generations and should be preserved carefully and safely without deterioration or loss. Chapter 3 investigates the current status of preservation and management of three repositories that store the four registered records in Korea. The repositories include Kyujanggak Archives in Seoul National University, Pusan Records and Information Center of National Records and Archives Service, and Gansong Art Museum. The quality of their preservation and management are excellent in all of three institutions by the following aspects: 1) detailed security measures are close to perfection 2) archiving practices are very careful by using a special stack room in steady temperature and humidity and depositing it in stack or archival box made of paulownia tree and 3) fire prevention, lighting, and fumigation are thoroughly prepared. Chapter 4 summarizes the status quo of digitization projects of records heritage in Korea. The most important issue related to digitization and database construction on Korean records heritage is likely to set up the standardization of digitization processes and facilities. It is urgently necessary to develop comprehensive standard systems for digitization. Two institutions are closely interested in these tasks: 1) the National Records and Archives Service experienced in developing government records management systems; and 2) the Cultural Heritage Administration interested in digitization of Korean old documents. In collaboration of these two institutions, a new standard system will be designed for digitizing records heritage on Korean Studies. Chapter 5 deals with additional Korean records heritage in the wish list for UNESCO's Memory of the World Register, including: 1) Wooden Printing Blocks(經板) of Koryo-Taejangkyong(高麗大藏經) in Haein Temple(海印寺); 2) Dongui-Bogam("東醫寶鑑") 3) Samguk-Yusa("三國遺事") and 4) Mugujeonggwangdaedaranigyeong. Their world value and importance are examined as followings. Wooden Printing Blocks of Koryo-Taejangkyong in Haein Temple is the worldly oldest wooden printing block of cannon of Buddhism that still exist and was created over 750 years ago. It needs a special conservation treatment to disinfect germs residing in surface and inside of wooden plates. Otherwise, it may be damaged seriously. For its effective conservation and preservation, we hope that UNESCO and Government will schedule special care and budget and join the list of Memory of the Word Register. Dongui-Bogam is the most comprehensive and well-written medical book in the Korean history, summarizing all medical books in Korea and China from the Ancient Times through the early 17th century and concentrating on Korean herb medicine and prescriptions. It is proved as the best clinical guidebook in the 17th century for doctors and practitioners to easily use. The book was also published in China and Japan in the 18th century and greatly influenced the development of practical clinic and medical research in Asia at that time. This is why Dongui Bogam is in the wish list to register to the Memory of the World. Samguk-Yusa is evaluated as one of the most comprehensive history books and treasure sources in Korea, which illustrates foundations of Korean people and covers histories and cultures of ancient Korean peninsula and nearby countries. The book contains the oldest fixed form verse, called Hyang-Ka(鄕歌), and became the origin of Korean literature. In particular, the section of Gi-ee(紀異篇) describes the historical processes of dynasty transition from the first dynasty Gochosun(古朝鮮) to Goguryeo(高句麗) and illustrates the identity of Korean people from its historical origin. This book is worthy of adding to the Memory of the World Register. Mugujeonggwangdaedaranigyeong is the oldest book printed by wooden type plates, and it is estimated to print in between 706 and 751. It contains several reasons and evidence to be worthy of adding to the list of the Memory of the World. It is the greatest documentary heritage that represents the first wooden printing book that still exists in the world as well as illustrates the history of wooden printing in Korea.