• Title/Summary/Keyword: Transaction Model

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A Bayesian Estimation of Price for Commercial Property: Using subjective priors and a kriging technique (상업용 토지 가격의 베이지안 추정: 주관적 사전지식과 크리깅 기법의 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Eum, Young Seob;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.761-778
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    • 2014
  • There has been relatively little study to model price for commercial property because of its low transaction volume in the market. Despite of this thin market character, this paper tried to estimate prices for commercial lots as accurate as possible. We constructed a model whose components consist of mean structure(global trend), exponential covariance function and a pure error term, and applied it to actual sales price data of Seoul. We explicitly took account of spatial autocorrelation of land price by utilizing a kriging technique, a representative method of spatial interpolation, because the land price of commercial lots has feature of differential price forming pattern depending on submarkets they belong to. In addition, we chose to apply a bayesian kriging to overcome data scarcity by incorporating experts' knowledge into prior probability distribution. The chosen model's excellent performance was verified by the result from validation data. We confirmed that the excellence of the model is attributed to incorporating both autocorexperts' knowledge and spatial autocorrelation in the model construction. This paper is differentiated from previous studies in the sense that it applied the bayesian kriging technique to estimate price for commercial lots and explicitly combined experts' knowledge with data. It is expected that the result of this paper would provide a useful guide for the circumstances under which property price has to be estimated reliably based on sparse transaction data.

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Linear programming models using a Dantzig type risk for portfolio optimization (Dantzig 위험을 사용한 포트폴리오 최적화 선형계획법 모형)

  • Ahn, Dayoung;Park, Seyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.229-250
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    • 2022
  • Since the publication of Markowitz's (1952) mean-variance portfolio model, research on portfolio optimization has been conducted in many fields. The existing mean-variance portfolio model forms a nonlinear convex problem. Applying Dantzig's linear programming method, it was converted to a linear form, which can effectively reduce the algorithm computation time. In this paper, we proposed a Dantzig perturbation portfolio model that can reduce management costs and transaction costs by constructing a portfolio with stable and small (sparse) assets. The average return and risk were adjusted according to the purpose by applying a perturbation method in which a certain part is invested in the existing benchmark and the rest is invested in the assets proposed as a portfolio optimization model. For a covariance estimation, we proposed a Gaussian kernel weight covariance that considers time-dependent weights by reflecting time-series data characteristics. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing it with the benchmark portfolio with 5 real data sets. Empirical results show that the proposed portfolios provide higher expected returns or lower risks than the benchmark. Further, sparse and stable asset selection was obtained in the proposed portfolios.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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A Study on Quantitative Modeling for EPCIS Event Data (EPCIS Event 데이터 크기의 정량적 모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Ho;Jho, Yong-Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 2009
  • Electronic Product Code Information Services(EPCIS) is an EPCglobal standard for sharing EPC related information between trading partners. EPCIS provides a new important capability to improve efficiency, security, and visibility in the global supply chain. EPCIS data are classified into two categories, master data (static data) and event data (dynamic data). Master data are static and constant for objects, for example, the name and code of product and the manufacturer, etc. Event data refer to things that happen dynamically with the passing of time, for example, the date of manufacture, the period and the route of circulation, the date of storage in warehouse, etc. There are four kinds of event data which are Object Event data, Aggregation Event data, Quantity Event data, and Transaction Event data. This thesis we propose an event-based data model for EPC Information Service repository in RFID based integrated logistics center. This data model can reduce the data volume and handle well all kinds of entity relationships. From the point of aspect of data quantity, we propose a formula model that can explain how many EPCIS events data are created per one business activity. Using this formula model, we can estimate the size of EPCIS events data of RFID based integrated logistics center for a one day under the assumed scenario.

The Dynamics of Indonesia's Current Account Deficit : Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility

  • Purwono, Rudi;Mucha, Karima;Mubin, M. Khoerul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2018
  • In the globalization and free trade era, the current account deficit problem is a common phenomenon experienced by most countries, both developing and developed countries. Also with managed floating regime of exchange rate, it becomes very important to analyze the dynamics of current account balance which determine the trade. The deficit condition has lasted for four years in Indonesia, as well the deficit value above the value of the surplus that has been experienced during the period 2005-2011. This study is firstly aim to examine the condition of the deficit which happens in the export and import, manufactured goods and oil and gas, whether related to the transaction of goods and services. We try to build a predicted model which near the actual. Then, the focuses examines an exchange rate volatility impact on current account deficit. The model used in this research is a simultaneous model of Indonesia current account deficit from 2005 to 2014. The simulation result indicated that depreciation increase surplus to current account deficit. The decrease of export manufactured goods (non oil and gas) higher than the increase of import. For the oil and gas sector, depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar results in an increased burden of higher oil and gas imports due to import transactions.

Shrinkage Model Selection for Portfolio Optimization on Vietnam Stock Market

  • NGUYEN, Nhat;NGUYEN, Trung;TRAN, Tuan;MAI, An
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2020
  • This paper provides the practical application of a linear shrinkage framework on Vietnam stock market. The cumulative data points observed in this analysis are 468 weeks from January 2011 to December 2019. All the companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), except the companies under two years period from Initial Public Offering (IPO), are considered. The cumulative number of stocks picked is therefore 350 companies. The VNINDEX, which is the Vietnam Stock Index, is used as a reference index for shrinking to a single-index model. The empirical results show that the shrinkage of covariance matrix for portfolio optimization gives the promising results for the investors on Vietnam stock market. The shrinkage method helps the investors to produce the optimal portfolio in the sense of having higher profit with lower levels of risk compared to the portfolio of the traditional SCM method. Moreover, the portfolio turnover of shrinkage method is always kept at low magnitudes, and this makes the shrinkage portfolios save much transaction costs and reduce the liquidity risks in the trading process. In addition, the ability of shrinkage method in making profit is once again confirmed by the Alpha coefficient that achieves a high positive value.

Application of Motivation-Hygiene Theory and Kano Model to Investigate Dimensionality of Consumers' Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction with Social Commerce (동기위생이론과 Kano 모델을 적용한 소셜커머스의 만족과 불만족 차원 연구)

  • Gao, Yan;Lee, Hyun-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.355-371
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    • 2014
  • The present study investigated the dimensionality of satisfaction and dissatisfaction as well as evaluated the effects of social commerce characteristics on satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The conceptual framework of the study was built on Herzberg's motivation-hygiene Theory and the Kano Model. We gathered 519 data by social commerce users through an online survey and used SPSS 20.0 for the analysis. The findings showed that satisfaction and dissatisfaction are two distinct constructs; in addition, nine characteristics of social commerce were derived from factor analysis. Among the nine factors of social commerce characteristics, diversity had a positive influence only on satisfaction and uncertainty had only a positive impact on dissatisfaction; however, price discount, product quality and transaction safety, influenced both satisfaction and dissatisfaction. There were several factors that had no significant influence on both satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The findings of the study support Herzberg's motivation-hygiene Theory and the Kano Model. The present study helps social commerce managers establish a plan to maximize factors that influence consumer satisfaction and minimize the factor influencing dissatisfaction.

Novel Push-Front Fibonacci Windows Model for Finding Emerging Patterns with Better Completeness and Accuracy

  • Akhriza, Tubagus Mohammad;Ma, Yinghua;Li, Jianhua
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2018
  • To find the emerging patterns (EPs) in streaming transaction data, the streaming is first divided into some time windows containing a number of transactions. Itemsets are generated from transactions in each window, and then the emergence of itemsets is evaluated between two windows. In the tilted-time windows model (TTWM), it is assumed that people need support data with finer accuracy from the most recent windows, while accepting coarser accuracy from older windows. Therefore, a limited array's elements are used to maintain all support data in a way that condenses old windows by merging them inside one element. The capacity of elements that accommodates the windows inside is modeled using a particular number sequence. However, in a stream, as new data arrives, the current array updating mechanisms lead to many null elements in the array and cause data incompleteness and inaccuracy problems. Two models derived from TTWM, logarithmic TTWM and Fibonacci windows model, also inherit the same problems. This article proposes a novel push-front Fibonacci windows model as a solution, and experiments are conducted to demonstrate its superiority in finding more EPs compared to other models.

Design Automation for Enterprise System based on .NET with Extended UML Profile Mechanism

  • Kum, Deuk-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a method to generate the extended model automatically on the critical elements in enterprise system based real time distributed architecture as well as the platform specific model(PSM) for Microsoft(MS) .NET platform is proposed. The key ideas of this method are real time distributed architecture should performed with satisfying strict constraints on life cycle of object and response time such as synchronization, transaction and so on, and .NET platform is able to implement functionalities including before mentioned by only specifying Attribute Code and maximizing advantages of MDA. In order to realize the ideas, functionalities which should be considered enterprise system development are specified and these are to be defined in Meta Model and extended UML profile. In addition, after definition of UML profile for .NET specification, by developing and applying these into plug-in of open source MDA tool, and extended models are generated automatically through this tool. Accordingly, by using proposed specification technology, the profile and tools easily and quickly reusable extended model can be generated even though low level of detailed information for functionalities which is considered in .NET platform and real time distributed architecture. In addition, because proposed profile is MOF which is basis of standard extended and applied, UML and MDA tools which observed MOF is reusable.

Factors Influencing on Behavior Intention for Mobile Commerce (모바일 커머스의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Chung, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Won-Bin
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.153-174
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    • 2008
  • Mobile commerce is defined as any direct or indirect transaction conducted and facilitated through a wireless telecommunication network such as payment, ticketing, auction and mobile banking. Despite the importance of mobile commerce, there have not been so many academic studies on the unique characteristics of mobile commerce environments. In this study, our research model is developed based on TAM(Technology Acceptance Model) to investigate the user's technology acceptance process in mobile commerce environment. The factors, such as ubiquity, compatibility, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, cost, security, attitude and behavior intention for mobile commerce were selected from pier study in information systems area. The data for empirical analysis of the research model is collected online-questionnaire of 167 mobile commerce users in South Korea. The hypotheses were analyzed using SPSS 15.0 and AMOS 7.0. The results of our study show that: (1) compatibility, perceived usefulness and security had influences on the attitude whereas perceived ease of use and cost did not have any significant impact on the attitude, (2) compatibility influenced perceived usefulness whereas perceived ease of use did not, and finally (3) ubiquity, perceived usefulness and attitude had considerable influences on intention for mobile commerce. Therefore, practitioners should focus on enhancing security, quality of contents and services as well as offering what mobile commerce users want. The results of this study may useful for academicians and practitioners alike.