• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Prediction Model

Search Result 370, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

A Development of Prediction Program for Vertical Transfer Vibration of R/C Structure due to Traffic Loads (교통하중에 인접한 콘크리트 건축물의 진동예측 프로그램 개발)

  • Chun, Ho-Min;Hong, Kap-Pyo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
    • /
    • 2000.06a
    • /
    • pp.949-954
    • /
    • 2000
  • In terms of vibration damage and the serviceability for occupants in buildings, the purpose of vibration study lies in the reduction of vibration damage. However, only when vibration level of buildings is available, measures of vibration control and base isolation can be taken. The purpose of this paper is to provide a fundamental analysis method to estimate structural vibration. After analysing by using two methods, infinite model, combination method, a comparison between analysed results and the results of previous studies was performed to prove the validity of the prediction on the vibration of building structure. Thus, if the material property of soil and quantity of load sources are known before construction being started, the vibration level could be predicted by using these methods.

  • PDF

A TCP-Friendly Control Method using Neural Network Prediction Algorithm (신경회로망 예측 알고리즘을 적용한 TCP-Friednly 제어 방법)

  • Yoo, Sung-Goo;Chong, Kil-To
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2006.04a
    • /
    • pp.105-107
    • /
    • 2006
  • As internet streaming data increase, transport protocol such as TCP, TGP-Friendly is important to study control transmission rate and share of Internet bandwidth. In this paper, we propose a TCP-Friendly protocol using Neural Network for media delivery over wired Internet which has various traffic size(PTFRC). PTFRC can effectively send streaming data when occur congestion and predict one-step ahead round trip time and packet loss rate. A multi-layer perceptron structure is used as the prediction model, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used as a traning algorithm. The performance of the PTFRC was evaluated by the share of Bandwidth and packet loss rate with various protocols.

  • PDF

A study on Traffic Noise control by the Environmental facilities around Roadway (도로연변 환경시설에 의한 교통소음 저감방안에 관한 연구)

  • Sul Jeung Min;Chung Yong
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
    • /
    • v.3 no.2 s.5
    • /
    • pp.43-60
    • /
    • 1988
  • This study was carried out to determine traffic noise level and analyze noise reduction effects of various sound protection facilities in the area of Seoul, Inch'on, Songchoo and Seoul- Busan Expressway from March to Octover, 1987. The results were as follows; 1. As compared with the environmental standards and the traffic noise level in heavy noise areas, traffic noise levels observed were shown in higher than environmental standards. The noise levels in Seoul were determined at 12.8-18.2 dB(A) in daytime and 19.0-26.9 dB (A) in nighttime. And incase of inch'on, it were 6.7-9.6 dB(A) in daytime, 7.9-18.9 dB(A) in nighttime, respectively. 2. The environmental noise level observed in the backside of protection facilities, such as apartment, soundproof barrier and houses, which were constructed in paralled to the road was lower about 3-5 dB(A) than perpendicular to theroad. Noise recuction effect of upper stairs in apartment was higher than lower stairs. 3. The predicted noise level obtained from the equation $({\triangle}L\;=\; -10\;log\;(^{I'1}/Ii)\;was\;\pm\;1dB$ (A) and the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.923. 4. The noise reduction effect in backside of apartment was measured at on sites and predicted by total noise loss equation. The predicted noise level was 60.9 dB(A) and the measured level was 60.6 dB(A), respectively. 5. The narrow width landscape less than 10m width was almost no effect for the protection of traffic noise. According to the synthesis of the above results, the noise level of the road was exceeding mostly the environmental standard in the heavy traffic areas. The counterplan should be set as well. The insulation of noise protection facilities were effective by the location with near distance from the road edge. The reduction effect of double window in apartment was represented so much. The prediction model could be applied to estimate the noise levels in the roadside as well as the effectiveness for the noise protection facilities.

  • PDF

Spectrum Requirement Estimation for IMT Operation (IMT 운용을 위한 주파수 소요량 산출)

  • Han, Tae-Young;Kim, Nam;Yang, Jae-Soo;Choi, Jung-Hun;Kim, Cheol-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.161-167
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper describes the overview of spectrum requirement estimation recommended in ITU-R Rec. M.1390 and [IMT.METH] and its difference for the IMT mobile service, and a (IMT.METH) methodology is applied to the spectrum estimation of the recent IMT service. The traffic model and traffic calculation algorithm is briefly described for the carried traffic which is determined in terms of the offered traffic, system rapacity, and the criteria of quality of service. And the spectrum requirement demand which is required from year 2010 to year 2015 is calculated as an example for the IMT service which is recently operated and deployed in the current Korean market after obtaining the reasonable market data and the ITU market prediction data.

A Study on Forecasting Trip Distribution of Land Development Project Using Middle Zone Size And Gravity Model (중죤단위와 중력모형을 이용한 택지개발사업의 통행분포 예측방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Chang-Yong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Kim, Do-Gyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.19-28
    • /
    • 2009
  • In case of land development projects constructed, to solve induced transportation volume needs analysis of traffic demand. Trip-generation of land development projects is exactly predicted by using traffic instigating-basic-unit in each facility of land developments. But in case of a phase of trip-distribution, because a range of destinations is very enormous and it needs enormous data to reflect all of its characters, whenever trip-distribution is predicted, the method which assumes the rate of trip-distribution is same both before completion of land development projects and after is often used. But because there is no exact criterion, the method suggested above is also affected by subjective opinion. Accordingly, this study look over using trip-distribution of specific areas's DB and suggests a size of zone to predict a distribution of land development projects exactly. Also production - constrained gravity model which uses the gap between a distribution of suggested ranges and induced land development project is suggested for more exact prediction of trip-distribution. Besides accuracy of prediction is scrutinized by using Mean Squared Error.

Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 일반국도 아스팔트포장의 공용수명 예측)

  • Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.57-65
    • /
    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : The study aims to predict the service life of national highway asphalt pavements through deep learning methods by using maintenance history data of the National Highway Pavement Management System. METHODS : For the configuration of a deep learning network, this study used Tensorflow 1.5, an open source program which has excellent usability among deep learning frameworks. For the analysis, nine variables of cumulative annual average daily traffic, cumulative equivalent single axle loads, maintenance layer, surface, base, subbase, anti-frost layer, structural number of pavement, and region were selected as input data, while service life was chosen to construct the input layer and output layers as output data. Additionally, for scenario analysis, in this study, a model was formed with four different numbers of 1, 2, 4, and 8 hidden layers and a simulation analysis was performed according to the applicability of the over fitting resolution algorithm. RESULTS : The results of the analysis have shown that regardless of the number of hidden layers, when an over fitting resolution algorithm, such as dropout, is applied, the prediction capability is improved as the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of the test data increases. Furthermore, the result of the sensitivity analysis of the applicability of region variables demonstrates that estimating service life requires sufficient consideration of regional characteristics as $R^2$ had a maximum of between 0.73 and 0.84, when regional variables where taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS : As a result, this study proposes that it is possible to precisely predict the service life of national highway pavement sections with the consideration of traffic, pavement thickness, and regional factors and concludes that the use of the prediction of service life is fundamental data in decision making within pavement management systems.

Comparison of Association Rule Learning and Subgroup Discovery for Mining Traffic Accident Data (교통사고 데이터의 마이닝을 위한 연관규칙 학습기법과 서브그룹 발견기법의 비교)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-16
    • /
    • 2015
  • Traffic accident is one of the major cause of death worldwide for the last several decades. According to the statistics of world health organization, approximately 1.24 million deaths occurred on the world's roads in 2010. In order to reduce future traffic accident, multipronged approaches have been adopted including traffic regulations, injury-reducing technologies, driving training program and so on. Records on traffic accidents are generated and maintained for this purpose. To make these records meaningful and effective, it is necessary to analyze relationship between traffic accident and related factors including vehicle design, road design, weather, driver behavior etc. Insight derived from these analysis can be used for accident prevention approaches. Traffic accident data mining is an activity to find useful knowledges about such relationship that is not well-known and user may interested in it. Many studies about mining accident data have been reported over the past two decades. Most of studies mainly focused on predict risk of accident using accident related factors. Supervised learning methods like decision tree, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, neural network are used for these prediction. However, derived prediction model from these algorithms are too complex to understand for human itself because the main purpose of these algorithms are prediction, not explanation of the data. Some of studies use unsupervised clustering algorithm to dividing the data into several groups, but derived group itself is still not easy to understand for human, so it is necessary to do some additional analytic works. Rule based learning methods are adequate when we want to derive comprehensive form of knowledge about the target domain. It derives a set of if-then rules that represent relationship between the target feature with other features. Rules are fairly easy for human to understand its meaning therefore it can help provide insight and comprehensible results for human. Association rule learning methods and subgroup discovery methods are representing rule based learning methods for descriptive task. These two algorithms have been used in a wide range of area from transaction analysis, accident data analysis, detection of statistically significant patient risk groups, discovering key person in social communities and so on. We use both the association rule learning method and the subgroup discovery method to discover useful patterns from a traffic accident dataset consisting of many features including profile of driver, location of accident, types of accident, information of vehicle, violation of regulation and so on. The association rule learning method, which is one of the unsupervised learning methods, searches for frequent item sets from the data and translates them into rules. In contrast, the subgroup discovery method is a kind of supervised learning method that discovers rules of user specified concepts satisfying certain degree of generality and unusualness. Depending on what aspect of the data we are focusing our attention to, we may combine different multiple relevant features of interest to make a synthetic target feature, and give it to the rule learning algorithms. After a set of rules is derived, some postprocessing steps are taken to make the ruleset more compact and easier to understand by removing some uninteresting or redundant rules. We conducted a set of experiments of mining our traffic accident data in both unsupervised mode and supervised mode for comparison of these rule based learning algorithms. Experiments with the traffic accident data reveals that the association rule learning, in its pure unsupervised mode, can discover some hidden relationship among the features. Under supervised learning setting with combinatorial target feature, however, the subgroup discovery method finds good rules much more easily than the association rule learning method that requires a lot of efforts to tune the parameters.

Effects of Road and Traffic Characteristics on Roadside Air Pollution (도로환경요인이 도로변 대기오염에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Jo, Hye-Jin;Choe, Dong-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.139-146
    • /
    • 2009
  • While air pollutants emission caused by the traffic is one of the major sources, few researches have done. This study investigated the extent to which traffic and road related characteristics such as traffic volumes, speeds and road weather data including wind speed, temperature and humidity, as well as the road geometry affect the air pollutant emission. We collected the real time air pollutant emission data from Seoul automatic stations and real time traffic volume counts as well as the road geometry. The regression air pollutant emission models were estimated. The results show followings. First, the more traffic volume increase, the more pollutant emission increase. The more vehicle speed increase, the more measurement quantity of pollutant decrease. Secondly, as the wind speed, temperature, and humidity increase, the amount of air pollutant is likely to decrease. Thirdly, the figure of intersections affects air pollutant emission. To verify the estimated models, we compared the estimates of the air pollutant emission with the real emission data. The result show the estimated results of Chunggae 4 station has the most reliable data compared with the others. This study is differentiated in the way the model used the real time air pollutant emission data and real time traffic data as well as the road geometry to explain the effects of the traffic and road characteristics on air quality.

A Study on Life Cycle analysis and prediction of Contents Service in the Wireless Internet (로지스틱 회귀 모형을 이용한 무선인터넷 콘텐츠 서비스의 life cycle 분석 및 예측)

  • Park, Ji-Hong;Jeon, Joon-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
    • /
    • 2005.11a
    • /
    • pp.1161-1164
    • /
    • 2005
  • In this paper, we proposed the technique to estimate the life cycle of Internet content services based on the logistic regression model. In this paper, to define parameters of Internet contents estimating life cycle by logistic regression model, we used market size, traffic amount, page view and session-visit number as the parameters of Internet contents estimating life cycle by logistic regression model. In this paper, to compare the performance of our proposed scheme, we estimated life cycle for the download services of bell sound & character contents in mobile network. As a result, using our proposed logistic regression, we were able to estimate exactly the life cycle of the download services of bell sound & character contents.

  • PDF

A Study of Traffic Prediction Method Based on Hidden Markov Model (은닉 마르코프 모델 기반의 교통량 예측 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Jae;You, Hee-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
    • /
    • 2014.01a
    • /
    • pp.347-348
    • /
    • 2014
  • 최근 급증하는 교통 혼잡으로 인해 시간적/물질적 손실이 크게 발생하고 있다. 이러한 교통난 해소는 시설투자만으로는 근본적인 해결책이 될 수 없다는 판단 하에 지난 수년간 보다 정확한 교통량을 예측하기 위해 시계열 기반의 다양한 교통량 예측 모델들이 개발 되어 왔다. 그러나 시계열 기반의 모델들은 회귀분석을 통해 과거 교통량을 분석하고 과거의 교통패턴이 미래에도 지속적으로 연장된다는 가정 하에 연구되었기 때문에 실시간으로 급변하는 불규칙한 교통 패턴에 대한 예측의 신뢰성을 떨어트린다. 또한 시계열 기반의 예측 기법은 어떠한 회귀분석 모델을 사용하는지에 따라 성능의 차이가 많이 나타나기 때문에 회귀분석 모델 선택이 중요하다. 이러한 제약을 극복하기 위해 본 논문에서는 은닉 마르코프 모델(Hidden Markov model)을 이용해 동적인 교통 패턴에 따라 현재 상황에 맞는 회귀분석 모델을 선택하는 신뢰도 높은 교통량 예측 시스템을 제안한다.

  • PDF