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A Study on Forecasting Trip Distribution of Land Development Project Using Middle Zone Size And Gravity Model  

Jeong, Chang-Yong (서울시립대학교)
Son, Ui-Yeong (서울시립대학교)
Kim, Do-Gyeong (서울시립대학교)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.27, no.6, 2009 , pp. 19-28 More about this Journal
Abstract
In case of land development projects constructed, to solve induced transportation volume needs analysis of traffic demand. Trip-generation of land development projects is exactly predicted by using traffic instigating-basic-unit in each facility of land developments. But in case of a phase of trip-distribution, because a range of destinations is very enormous and it needs enormous data to reflect all of its characters, whenever trip-distribution is predicted, the method which assumes the rate of trip-distribution is same both before completion of land development projects and after is often used. But because there is no exact criterion, the method suggested above is also affected by subjective opinion. Accordingly, this study look over using trip-distribution of specific areas's DB and suggests a size of zone to predict a distribution of land development projects exactly. Also production - constrained gravity model which uses the gap between a distribution of suggested ranges and induced land development project is suggested for more exact prediction of trip-distribution. Besides accuracy of prediction is scrutinized by using Mean Squared Error.
Keywords
Trip distribution; Land development project; Gravity model; Generated traffic; Mean Squared Error;
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