• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Estimate

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The AADT estimation through time series analysis using irregular factor decomposition method (불규칙변동 분해 시계열분석 기법을 사용한 AADT 추정)

  • 이승재;백남철;권희정;최대순;도명식
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2001
  • Until recently, we use only weekly and monthly adjustment factors in order to estimate the AADT. By the way. we can suppose that the traffic is time series data related to flow of time. So we tried to analyse traffic patterns using time series analysis and apply them to estimate the AADT. We could divide traffic patterns into trend, cyclic variation, seasonal variation and irregular variation like as time series data. Also, in order to reduce random error components, we have looked for the weather conditions as an influential factor. There are many weather conditions such as rainfalls, but, temperatures, and sunshine hours among others but we selected rainfalls and lowest temperatures. And then, we have estimated the AADT using time series factors. To compare the results of, we have applied both irregular variation joined to weather factors and that not joined to. RMSE and U-test were opted at methods to appreciate results of AADT estimation.

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An Estimation of the Change in Transshipment Traffic in Northeast Asia using the System Dynamics (SD기법에 의한 한.중.일 환적물동량 변화량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Gi-Tae;Jung, Hyun-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.165-185
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    • 2011
  • Transshipment traffic has significant meanings because it gives positive effects on increasing the container handling volumes in seaports, and revitalizes the regional and national development. Korean container port's transshipment traffic volumes, however, will slowly decrease due to the direct ships' calling into Chinese ports, which recently has a huge development plan. There are a lot of stress on forecasting the transshipment traffic volumes because the Korean container port development plans are designed based on this container traffic which consists of import and export traffic, and transshipment traffic. The transshipment traffic volumes are assumed to occupy 40% of total container traffic volumes. Despite of the importance of forecasting the transshipment traffic, a little studies are suggested using the concepts of the port competitiveness. In this respect, this study aims to estimate the Port Competitiveness Index and Transshipment traffic Volumes using the System Dynamics methodology. As a result, transshipment traffic volumes are predicted as: 20 million TEUs in Korea under the 4% annual increasing rates, 90 million TEUs in China under the 6% annual increasing rates, and 2.5 million TEUs in Japan under the 1% annual increasing rates respectively. The suggested results can be used to enhance the container port competitiveness and produce more transshipment traffic volumes.

A study on Traffic Noise control by the Environmental facilities around Roadway (도로연변 환경시설에 의한 교통소음 저감방안에 관한 연구)

  • Sul Jeung Min;Chung Yong
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.3 no.2 s.5
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    • pp.43-60
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    • 1988
  • This study was carried out to determine traffic noise level and analyze noise reduction effects of various sound protection facilities in the area of Seoul, Inch'on, Songchoo and Seoul- Busan Expressway from March to Octover, 1987. The results were as follows; 1. As compared with the environmental standards and the traffic noise level in heavy noise areas, traffic noise levels observed were shown in higher than environmental standards. The noise levels in Seoul were determined at 12.8-18.2 dB(A) in daytime and 19.0-26.9 dB (A) in nighttime. And incase of inch'on, it were 6.7-9.6 dB(A) in daytime, 7.9-18.9 dB(A) in nighttime, respectively. 2. The environmental noise level observed in the backside of protection facilities, such as apartment, soundproof barrier and houses, which were constructed in paralled to the road was lower about 3-5 dB(A) than perpendicular to theroad. Noise recuction effect of upper stairs in apartment was higher than lower stairs. 3. The predicted noise level obtained from the equation $({\triangle}L\;=\; -10\;log\;(^{I'1}/Ii)\;was\;\pm\;1dB$ (A) and the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.923. 4. The noise reduction effect in backside of apartment was measured at on sites and predicted by total noise loss equation. The predicted noise level was 60.9 dB(A) and the measured level was 60.6 dB(A), respectively. 5. The narrow width landscape less than 10m width was almost no effect for the protection of traffic noise. According to the synthesis of the above results, the noise level of the road was exceeding mostly the environmental standard in the heavy traffic areas. The counterplan should be set as well. The insulation of noise protection facilities were effective by the location with near distance from the road edge. The reduction effect of double window in apartment was represented so much. The prediction model could be applied to estimate the noise levels in the roadside as well as the effectiveness for the noise protection facilities.

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A Study on the Queueing Process with Dynamic Structure for Speed-Flow-Density Diagram (동적구조를 갖는 대기행렬 모형: Speed-Flow-Density 다이어그램을 중심으로)

  • Park, You-Sung;Jeon, Sae-Bom
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1179-1190
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    • 2010
  • Management of the existing traffic network and understanding current traffic conditions is the most important and effective way to solve traffic congestion. This research investigates the status of Korea expressway through the Speed-Flow-Density diagram and finds the best suitable queueing model for each area. Dynamic structure in the queueing model enables us to reflect the structural change of the road in case of traffic congestion. To find the best model and estimate the parameters, we use the Newton-Raphson method. Finally, we examine the road efficiency in view of the optimal speed and density using the conditional distribution of speed and density of a S-F-D diagram.

A Study on Traffic Volume Prediction for e-Commerce Systems (전자상거래 시스템의 트래픽량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Su
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.18C no.1
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2011
  • The applicability of network-based computing depends on the availability of the underlying network bandwidth. Such a growing gap between the capacity of the backbone network and the end users' needs results in a serious bottleneck of the access network in between. As a result, ISP incurs disadvantages in their business. If this situation is known to ISP in advance, or if ISP is able to predict traffic volume end-to-end link high-load zone, ISP and end users would be able to decrease the gap for ISP service quality. In this paper, simulation tools, such as ACE, ADM, and Flow Analysis, were used to be able to perceive traffic volume prediction and end-to-end link high-load zone. In using these simulation tools, we were able to estimate sequential transaction in real-network for e-Commerce. We also imported virtual network environment estimated network data, and create background traffic. In a virtual network environment like this, we were able to find out simulation results for traffic volume prediction and end-to-end link high-load zone according to the increase in the number of users based on virtual network environment.

Performance Analysis of Effective Load Control Procedure for WiBro System (무선 인터넷 서비스를 위한 WiBro시스템의 효율적인 부하 제어 절차 제안 및 성능분석)

  • Kim, So-Hyoung;Kim, Jeong-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.5A
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we propose the load control procedure for WiBro system in order to keep the data traffic throughput maximum. The transmitter at a mobile terminal can estimate maximum available power for each user and then the maximum number of subchannels can be calculated considering the total available power. The data traffic throughput and the total throughput (the sum of signaling traffic and data traffic throughput) are considered. As the number of bandwidth requests per frame increases, the data traffic throughput can significantly decrease. Therefore, the load control procedure is indispensible to maintain the data throughput at the maximum level. So, we propose the load control procedure to prevent data traffic throughput from decreasing and evaluate the proposed procedure through the computer simulation under the multi-user environment. The maximum throughput can be maintained by applying the proposed procedure.

Rate of Probe Vehicles for the Collection of Traffic Information on Expressways (고속도로 교통정보 취득을 위한 프루브 차량 비율 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Jiwon;Jeong, Harim;Kang, Sungkwan;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.262-274
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the minimum proportion of probe vehicles for obtaining expressway traffic information using VISSIM, a micro traffic simulation model, between Yongin IC and Yangji IC on Yeongdong Expressway. 7,200 scenarios were created for the experiment, and 40 scenarios were adopted using the Latin hypercube sampling method because it was difficult to perform all the scenarios through experiments. The reliability of the experiment was improved by adding a situation when the general situation and the accident situation exist. In the experiments, the average travel time of probe vehicles at different market penetration rates were compared with the average travel time of the entire vehicles. As a result, the minimum market penetration rate of probe vehicles for obtaining expressway traffic information was found to be 45%. In addition, it is estimated that 25% market penetration rate of probe vehicle can meet 70% of traffic situations in accident scenario.

Development of A Direct Demand Estimation Model for Forecasting of Railroad Traffic Demand (철도수요예측을 위한 직접수요모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jong;Jung, Chan-Mook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.2166-2178
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    • 2010
  • The Korea Transportation Database (KTDB) is used to obtain data on the origin and destination (OD) of inter-city travel, which are currently used in railroad planning when estimating traffic demand. The KTDB employs the trip assignment method, whereby the total traffic volume researched for inter-city travel in Korea is divided into road, rail and air traffic, etc. However, as regards rail travel, the railroad stations are not identical to the existing zones or the connector has not been established because there are several stations in one zone as such, certain problems with the applicable methods have been identified. Therefore, estimates of the volume of railroad traffic using the KTDB display low reliability compared to other modes of transportation. In this study, these problems are reviewed and analyzed, and use of the aggregate model method to estimate the direct demand for rail travel is proposed in order to improve the reliability of estimation. In addition, a method of minimizing error in traffic demand estimation for the railroad field is proposed via an analysis of the relationship between the aggregate model and various social-economic indicators including population, distances, numbers of industrial employees, numbers of automobiles, and the extension of roads between cities.

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Modelling En-route Diversion Behavior under On-site Traffic Information (관측 교통정보를 이용한 통행중 경로전환행태 모형)

  • Kim, Hye-Ran;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Park, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2004
  • The real-time traffic information is considered to be the system to alleviate traffic congestion. An effective traffic information will help drivers make efficient travel decision, and network performance will be improved. To make efficient strategy of providing information, the analyst should quantify reduced congestion by the media traffic informations. Many other route diversion models considered only media-informations as information sources and ignored the impact of on-site informations such as visible delays and average speeds, which affect drivers' route diversion decision in practice. In those models, the effect of on-site informations could be treated to be the effect of media informations, and the effects of media informations would be over-estimated. The proposed model including the impact of on-site information can estimate the effect of media-informations. The results are expected to be applied to the analysis of traffic management policy such as ITS.

Missing Data Imputation Using Permanent Traffic Counts on National Highways (일반국토 상시 교통량자료를 이용한 교통량 결측자료 추정)

  • Ha, Jeong-A;Park, Jae-Hwa;Kim, Seong-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2007
  • Up to now Permanent traffic volumes have been counted by Automatic Vehicle Classification (AVC) on National Highways. When counted data have missing items or errors, the data must be revised to stay statistically reliable This study was carried out to estimate correct data based on outoregression and seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). As a result of verification through seasonal ARIMA, the longer the missed period is, the greater the error. Autoregression results in better verification results than seasonal ARIMA. Traffic data is affected by the present state mote than past patterns. However. autoregression can be applied only to the cases where data include similar neighborhood patterns and even in this case. the data cannot be corrected when data are missing due to low qualify or errors Therefore, these data shoo)d be corrected using past patterns and seasonal ARIMA when the missing data occurs in short periods.