• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.7-15
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• 2008

New Car Assessment Program(NCAP) provides consumers with vehicle safety information, primarily front and side crash rating results, and more recently rollover ratings, to aid consumers in their vehicle purchase decisions. NCAP is a system to improve driver and passenger safety by providing market incentives for vehicle manufacturers to voluntarily design their vehicles to better protect drivers and passengers in a crash and be less susceptible to rollover, rather than by regulatory directives. NCAP have been performed since 1999 in Korea by the government in order to reduce fatalities and injuries caused by traffic accidents. Although as the number of vehicles models increases, more vehicle models are required to be test and NCAP is evaluated as a valuable system for vehicle safety, the expansion of the system is slow. It looks like that the benefit of NCAP quantitatively was not verified. In this study, based on the idea that the benefit of the NCAP is defined as the decrease of traffic accident severity by improving vehicle safety, a methodology to analyze the effectiveness of NCAP quantitatively in terms of traffic safety was developed. According to the developed methodology, the reduced numbers of fatalities and injuries were 1.51 and 466 in 2005.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.554-563
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• 2015

This study dealt with developing an accident model for rural signalized intersections with random parameter negative binomial method. The limitation of previous count models(especially, Poisson/Negative Binomial model) is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinctive characters a specific point/segment has. This drawback of the traditional count models results in the underestimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) of the derived coefficient and finally affects the low-reliability of the whole model. To solve this problem, this study improves the limitation of traditional count models by suggesting the use of random parameter which takes account of heterogeneity of each point/segment. Through the analyses, it was found that the increase of traffic flow and pedestrian facilities on minor streets had positive effects on the increase of traffic accidents. Left turning lanes and median on major streets reduced the number of accidents. The analysis results show that the random parameter modeling is an effective method for investigating the influence on traffic accident from road geometries. However, this study could not analyze the effects of sequential changes of driving conditions including geometries and safety facilities.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.47-56
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• 2008

Generally, accident exposure at intersections is relatively higher than that at roadway segments due to more possibility of merging, diverging, turning, crossing, and weaving maneuver. Furthermore, the traffic accident rate at intersections has been rapidly increasing since 1990's. Since there is more opportunity of conflict at unsignalized intersection, frequency and severity of traffic accident are more severe than signalized intersections. The purpose of the study is to analyze factors causing vehicle crashes and provide intersection design guidelines to improve intersection safety. For this study, vehicle to vehicle crash data of 116 rural 3 legs unsignalized were collected and field surveys were conducted for traffic and geometric conditions. Ordered probit models were developed to analyze the severity of crashes. It was found that weather, obstacles in minor roadsides, presence of major exclusive right lane, presence of major road crosswalk, difference between posted speed of major road and minor road, land-use around intersections, shoulder width of major road, ADT of major road are significant factors for intersection safety.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2007

This study proposes a methodology to assess the traffic safety benefits of technical regulation for pedestrian leg. Traffic safety benefit is defined as the injury reduction in this study. Actual accident analysis and simulation experiments using LS-Dyna3d are conducted to establish statistical models for developing the methodology. The relationship between collision speed and parameters of the regulation is explored. An application example of the proposed methodology is also presented for more comprehensive understanding. It is believed that the proposed methodology would be greatly utilized in developing various technologies and policies to protect pedestrian.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.101-116
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• 2012

Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.287-306
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• 2017

In the present study, a new assessment simulation of ride safety based on a new wind-traffic-pavement-bridge coupled vibration system is developed considering stochastic characteristics of traffic flow and bridge surface. Compared to existing simulation models, the new assessment simulation focuses on introducing the more realistic three-dimensional vehicle model, stochastic characteristics of traffic, vehicle accident criteria, and bridge surface conditions. A three-dimensional vehicle model with 24 degrees-of-freedoms (DOFs) is presented. A cellular automaton (CA) model and the surface roughness are introduced. The bridge deck pavement is modeled as a boundless Euler-Bernoulli beam supported on the Kelvin model. The wind-traffic-pavement-bridge coupled equations are established by combining the equations of both the vehicles in traffic, pavement, and bridge using the displacement and interaction force relationship at the patch contact. The numerical simulation shows that the proposed method can simulate rationally useful assessment and prevention information for traffic, and define appropriate safe driving speed limits for vulnerable vehicles under normal traffic and bridge surface conditions.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.101-110
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• 2010

In this study, a prediction model for incident reaction time was developed so that we can cope with the increasing demand for information related to the accident reaction time. For this, the time for dealing with accidents and dependent variables were classified into incident grade, A, B, and C. Then, fifteen independent variables including traffic volume, number of accident-related vehicles and the accidents time zone were utilized. As a result, traffic volume, possibility of including heavy vehicles, and an accident time zone were found as important variables. The results showed that the model has some degree of explanatory power. In addition, when the CHAID Technique was applied, the Answer Tree was constructed based on the variables included in the prediction model for incident reaction time. Using the developed Answer Tree model, accidents firstly were classified into grades A, B, and C. In the secondary classification, they were grouped according to the traffic volume. This study is expected to make a contribution to provide expressway users with quicker and more effective traffic information through the prediction model for incident reaction time and the Answer Tree, when incidents happen on expressway

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2016

This study aims to develop a model by which city bus drivers who are likely to cause an accident can be figured out based on the information about their actual driving records. For this purpose, from the information about the actual driving records of the drivers who have caused an accident and those who have not caused any, significance variables related to traffic accidents are drawn, and the accuracy between models is compared for the classification models developed, applying a discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. In addition, the developed models are applied to the data on other drivers' driving records to verify the accuracy of the models. As a result of developing a model for the classification of drivers who are likely to cause an accident, when deceleration ($X_{deceleration}$) and acceleration to the right ($Y_{right}$) are simultaneously in action, this variable was drawn as the optimal factor variable of the classification of drivers who had caused an accident, and the prediction model by discriminant analysis classified drivers who had caused an accident at a rate up to 62.8%, and the prediction model by logistic regression analysis could classify those who had caused an accident at a rate up to 76.7%. In addition, as a result of the verification of model predictive power of the models showed an accuracy rate of 84.1%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.7 s.93
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• pp.41-51
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• 2006

In this paper, a fundamental study on the characteristics of traffic accidents according to the alignment and traffic conditions on the ramp of freeway is addressed. The macro-and-micro scope analysis of characteristics about traffic accidents on the trumpet-IC ramps is conducted depending on the entering and exit ramp types under the various conditions of traffic volume and alignment And it is turned out that the conditions of alignment. such as radius, differences of curvatures, and main road grade, and traffic volume relate to the ramp accidents of trumpet IC according to ramp types, such as direction, semi-direction, and loop. Macroscopically, AR (Accident Rate) according to trumpet IC types, A and B, is analyzed nearly equal, but Number of accidents occurred in IC type B shows about 1.5 times higher than type A. And AR of exit ramps shows three times more than entrance ramps. Microscopically, ARs for each exit-ramp type, according to the increment of traffic volume, the difference of curvatures. and the first radius, exponentially decrease respectively. But relationships between AR and the second radius or exit ramp shows inverted U-shaped. AR according to main-road grade Peaks between -1.5% and -0.5%. It is expected that the developed models not only are employed to make design of trumpet-IC ramp more cost-efficiently and safely, but also contribute to making alternatives to the reduction of traffic accidents on trumpet IC ramps under the conditions of high traffic accident rate.