• 정보처리학회논문지B
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• 제14B권2호
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• pp.127-134
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• 2007

기계 학습 등 인공 지능 기법의 발전에 힘입어 지능형 주식 거래 시스템에 관한 많은 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 현실 주식 거래에서 적절한 거래 정책의 수립이 거래의 결과에 커다란 영향을 미치는 중요 요소로 작용하고 있음에도 불구하고, 기존의 연구에서는 예측 모듈의 예측 성능 향상에 주력하였거나, 거래 정책을 다룬 경우라도 예측 모듈에 종속적인 단순한 정책만을 제시하였다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 개선하기 위한 방안의 하나로, 신경망 기반 주식 거래 시스템의 구축을 위한 통합 개발 도고인 NXShell에서 채택하고 있는 ‘통합 다중 시뮬레이션‘ 기법을 제안한다. 통합 다중 시뮬레이션 기법에서는 신경망의 출력 값과 거래 정책 인자들 간의 모든 주어진 예측기의 특성에 맞는 고유의 최적 거래 정책을 수립한다. 제안된 기법의 효용성을 검증하기 위해, 한국 거래소 시장 및 코스닥 시장에서 수집한 데이터를 사용하여 수행한 거래 성능 비교 실험 결과를 제시한다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.13-24
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• 2017

This paper aims to implement "structural changes detection procedure" in pairs trading algorithm and to show that the proposed approach outperforms the extant pair trading algorithm. Structural changes in pairs trading are defined in terms of changes in cointegrating factors and broken cointegration relationship. These changes are designed to test extant structural changes and unit root test methodologies. The simulation finds that expanding the changes in structure, increasing the mean reverting process of spread, and extending the consecutive days of broken cointegration will increase the performances of the proposed algorithm. Empirical study results are also consistent those of the simulation studies. The proposed algorithm outperforms the extant algorithm relative to risk and return given that the cumulative profit/loss has a significant upward-slope with minimal variance.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2014

클라우드 컴퓨팅은 정보의 다양성과 빅데이터를 IT자원을 이용하여 처리할 수 있는 컴퓨팅 개념이다. 정부는 신재생에너지를 활용한 전력생산을 장려하기 위해 RPS를 시행하였고 시스템을 구축하여 지리적으로 분산되어 있는 빅데이터를 수집하여 운영하고 있다. RPS제도를 이행하는 발전사업자들은 의무할당량 중 REC 부족분을 타 발전사업자들로부터 REC를 구매하여 조달해야 한다. REC는 자율시장에 근거하여 거래되고 있고, 매매가격의 편차가 크기 때문에 RPS 빅데이터를 통해 형평성있는 REC가격을 예측할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 부정확한 가격추이와 규칙을 정량적으로 표현하여, 클라우드 환경에서 퍼지기반으로 REC가격을 예측하는 방법을 제안한다. 클라우드 환경에서 RPS 빅데이터를 통한 상호연관성과 가격결정에 영향을 주는 변수들에 대한 분석이 가능하고 시뮬레이션을 통해 REC 가격을 예측할 수 있다. 클라우드 환경에서 퍼지로직은 매물수량과 매매가격을 이용하여 투명성있는 REC 가격을 예측하고 장기적으로 수렴된 가격을 제시할 것이다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권7호
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• pp.957-965
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• 2012

Korean government has been preparing the introduction of Emission Trading as part of the framework convention on Climate Change as a relief of negative downstream effect over electricity industry. This paper develops a mathematical model amenable to analyzing the economic impact of introduced emission trading system on the national generation expansion planning. The developed model was also employed with a case study to verify its applicability.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권8호
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• pp.1496-1503
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• 2009

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In order to fulfil the commitments of the countries in an economically efficient way, the UNFCCC adapted the emission trading scheme in the Kyoto Protocol. If the UNFCCC's scheme is enforced in the country, considerable changes in electric power industry are expected due to the imposed greenhouse gas emission reduction. This paper proposes a game theoretic model of the case when generation companies participate in both competitive electricity market and emission market simultaneously. The model is designed such that generation companies select strategically between power quantity and greenhouse gas reduction to maximize their profits in both markets. Demand function and Environmental Welfare of emission trading market is proposed in this model. From the simulation results using the proposed model the impact of the emission trading on generation companies seems very severe in case that the emission prices are significantly high.

• 경영과학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.49-61
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• 2014

We investigate the hedging effectiveness of incorporating single-stock futures into the corresponding stocks. Investing in only stocks frequently causes too much risk when market volatility suddenly rises. We found that single-stock futures help reduce the variance and risk levels of the corresponding stocks invested. We use daily prices of Korean stocks and their corresponding futures for the time period from December 2009 to August 2013 to test the hedging effect. We also use system trading technique that uses automatic trading program which also has several simulation functions. Moving average strategy, Stochastic's strategy, Larry William's %R strategy have been considered for hedging strategy of the futures. Hedging effectiveness of each strategy was analyzed by percent reduction in the variance between the hedged and the unhedged variance. The results clearly showed that examined hedging strategies reduce price volatility risk compared to unhedged portfolio.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.153-153
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• 2018

Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus is a new holistic resources management concept that considers the interconnections among resources for sustainable resources planning and management. The current challenge is to fulfill the required demand in the lack of available resources. A traditional way to provide more available resource is by increase in production, but it caused increment of indirect demand of other interlinked resources. Importing resources from other area (where local supply is redundant) is another option to secure local resources with additional economic expenditure. The WEF nexus-trading model adapts the previously developed nationwide nexus simulation model with additional input parameters and functions to simulate trading scenarios. In general, the analysis starts with the quantification of local resources deficit (potential importing amount) and redundancy (potential exporting amount) of each area. Then, a trade module is initiated by determining possible donor area and importation amount. Finally, the nexus simulation for all area is re-run to determine final resources supply-demand results including the trading amount. The trade option provides an opportunity to meet local demands without draining local resources. However, the production capability of donor area may limit the importation amount. The newly developed trade option allows more alternatives for stakeholders to determine resources management plans.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.107-114
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• 2016

Web system helps high-performance processing for big-data analysis and practical use to make various information using IT resources. The government have started the RPS system in 2012. The system invigorates the electricity production as using renewable energy equipment. The government operates system gathered big-data with various related information system data and the system users are distributed geographically. The companies have to fulfill the system, are available to purchase the REC to other electricity generation company sellers to procure REC for their duty volumes. The REC market operates single auction methods with users a competitive price. But the price have the large variation with various user trading strategy and sellers situations. This papler proposed RPS system modeling and simulation in web environment that is modeled in geographically distributed computing environment for web user with DEVS W/S. Web simulation system base on web service helps to analysis correlation and variables that act on trading price and volume within RPS big-data and the analysis can be forecast REC price.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.54-61
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• 2016

미국의 수질교환법의 제정 이후 이 법안의 적용을 위하여 많은 파일럿 프로그램과 프로젝트가 생성되었으나 실제로 수질교환이 이루어 지는 경우는 흔치 않은 현실이다. 수질교환법의 적용이 용이하지 않은 이유로 가장 큰 것은 교환 지역 양측간의 공정성을 확보하기가 쉽지 않기 때문이다. 또한 도시개발로 유발되는 비점오염원의 유출량으로 인한 하천의 환경영향의 불확실성이 정책입안자의 법안 적용을 더욱 어렵게 하고 있다. 본 논문은 수질 모델링 프로그램 중 도시의 불투수면의 유출을 모의하기에 유용한 Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF)을 이용하여 미래의 도시개발 시나리오에 대응하는 점오염과 비점오염원 유출량을 도출하였다. 도시개발의 정도와 강우강도에 따른 부유탁도의 증가분을 계산 함으로써 향후 도시개발이 미치는 수질 영향을 하천 상 하류 간의 수질교환 단위로 전환하여 제시하였다. 제시된 지역 특화된 수질교환단위는 정책입안자와 이해관계자들에게 수질교환법 적용을 위한 정책결정 시스템으로 사용될 수 있다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.34-49
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• 2015

Market means of spectrum trading have been utilized as a vital method of spectrum sharing and access in future cognitive radio system. In this paper, we consider the spectrum trading with multiple primary carrier providers (PCP) leasing the spectrum to multiple secondary carrier providers (SCP) for a short period of time. Several factors including the price of the resource, duration of leasing, and the spectrum quality guides the proposed model. We formulate three trading policies based on the game theory for dynamic spectrum access in a LTE based cognitive radio system (CRS). In the first, we consider utility function based resource sharing (UFRS) without any knowledge of past transaction. In the second policy, each SCP deals with PCP using a non-cooperative resource sharing (NCRS) method which employs optimal strategy based on reinforcement learning. In variation of second policy, third policy adopts a Nash bargaining while incorporating a recommendation entity in resource sharing (RERS). The simulation results suggest overall increase in throughput while maintaining higher spectrum efficiency and fairness.