• 무역학회지
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.159-186
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• 2016

본 연구는 1991-2012년간 동아시아 국가 간 산업별 부품무역의 비교우위를 분석하여, 동아시아 FTA 체결 시 예상되는 무역과 생산분할 구조를 분석한다. 분석기간 중 동아시아 내 부품무역의 상호의존도는 지속적으로 증가하여 왔으며, 동아시아 FAT 체결 시 구조적 변화가 없다면 한국과 일본이 동아시아 내 전기 및 전자기기, 수송기기 부품수출을 더 강화하고, 중국과 ASEAN이 최종재를 수출하는 구조는 유지될 것으로 예상된다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.83-98
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the effects of international trade in intermediate input on the implications of international business cycle properties in Korea. To do this, I have extended standard one goods New Keynesian international business cycle model to incorporate the role of intermediate inputs. After constructing the DSGE model, I have analysed the impulse response function and varian decomposition results. The results show that the model could introduce a new channel, that is, "cost channel" like Eyquem and Kamber (2014). In other words, the model has changed the dynamics of aggregate inflation by the cost channel. When the trade in intermediate goods increase, which is measured by openness of foreign input, the volatility of output, consumption and inflation increase two or three times. However, the model itself fails to explain the full account of cycle behavior of historical data, but the results imply that the trade in intermediate input assumption can help to improve the forecasting ability of international business cycle models.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.295-315
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• 2017

This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권8호
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• pp.25-44
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• 2021

Purpose - This research aims to provide empirical evidence that highlights the importance of imported intermediate goods in long-term economic growth. To this end, this paper develops an index that measures the productivity gains associated with a country's intermediate goods imports using highly disaggregated trade data. Design/methodology - The basic hypothesis is that countries sourcing higher-productivity (or higher-quality) inputs from developed economies derive a larger benefit from foreign R&D. To explore this hypothesis, standard cross-country growth regressions are performed using the highly disaggregated data from the United Nations (UN) Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE). To address the endogeneity issue, I apply an instrumental variable (IV) approach. Findings - The results of this study demonstrate that the index predicts subsequent economic growth in middle- and low-income countries. This finding is consistent with previous studies that have argued that developing countries can achieve substantial productivity gains by importing intermediate inputs from developed countries. By contrast, there is no evidence of a significant association between the index and economic growth in high-income countries. Originality/value - This paper contributes to our understanding of the causal relationship between international trade and economic growth. From an economic policy perspective, the results suggest that developing countries with limited technology endowment can boost growth from input-tariff liberalization.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.205-217
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• 2021

This paper examines the effects of intellectual property protection policies on upstream firms' R&D investments in order to derive policy implications in relation to the fostering of the intermediate goods industry. To that end, the dependence on import of intermediate goods and the degree of protection of intellectual property rights are introduced into the model to analyze the effects of R&D investments on the dependence on imports and the effects of intellectual property rights protection policies on the level of R&D investments in order and the social welfare effects are also checked. The policy implications derived in this paper, which used an oligopolistic market model with a vertical specialization structure, are as follows. As R&D investments expand, upstream firm begins to have price competitiveness, the dependence on import of intermediate goods by downstream firm decreases, and social welfare increases. That is, in order to strengthen the independence of the intermediate goods industry, R&D investments by upstream firm should be expanded, and to promote this, the government should strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights.

• 무역학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.97-121
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• 2016

41개국 34개 산업의 부가가치수출 RCA를 계산하고 각국 각 산업의 경쟁력을 평가하였다. 중국의 성장속도가 한국보다 빠른 것은 사실이지만 한국의 수출을 대체 또는 추월하고 있다는 증거는 미약하다. 수출 주력산업에서의 일본과의 경쟁력 격차가 확대되고 있다는 주장 또한 설득력이 미흡했다. 전세계 국가-산업의 패널분석의 시사점은, 대 세계 경쟁력을 유지하는 방편으로 산업 내 교역 특히 중간재 교역이 활성화되면서 부가가치 RCA와 총수출 RCA 간에 격차가 발생한다는 것이다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.169-198
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• 2018

본 연구는 전통적으로 사용되는 수출수요모형을 사용하여 환율변동이 동아시아 국가에 대한 한국의 기계류 중간재 수출에 미치는 영향을 글로벌 금융위기 전후기간으로 나누어 분석하였다. 기계류 중간재의 수출에 대한 환율변동성의 추정결과에 대해 타당성을 확보하기 위하여 이동평균 표준편차, 12개월 고정평균 표준편차, GARCH 모형 등의 환율변동에 대한 다양한 측정방법을 사용하였다. 변수들 간의 장기적 관계는 Pedroni(1999)가 제안한 패널 공적분 검정 및 DOLS & FMOLS 패널 회귀분석을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 글로벌 금융위기 이전에는 환율변동성이 기계류 총수출 및 일반기계, 전자기계, 운송장비 등의 중간재의 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미치지만 정밀기계 중간재의 수출에는 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 환율변동성이 기계류 총수출 및 모든 기계류 중간재의 수출에 부정적인 영향을 주는 정반대의 결과가 나타났다. 글로벌 금융위기 전후의 전체 기간을 분석대상으로 하는 경우 정밀기계 중간재의 수출에 대해 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤고 그 외 기계류 중간재의 수출 및 기계류 총수출에는 부정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• 무역학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2018

본 연구는 OECD-WTO의 부가가치 기준 무역(TiVA) 데이터를 이용하여 경제통합이 부가가치 기준 무역에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 연구결과 경제통합은 회원국간의 무역을 통계적으로 유의하게 증가시키는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 전통적 의미의 최종재와 중간재뿐만 아니라 수출에서 차지하는 국내 및 외국의 부가가치 규모도 증가하는 것을 확인하였다. 아울러 경제통합이 국내 및 외국의 부가가치 무역을 증가시키는 효과가 대체로 비슷하여 총수출에서 국내부가가치가 차지하는 비중을 증가시키거나 감소시키지 않는다는 것을 확인하였다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.447-467
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• 2016

The RTAs with trade facilitation provisions have been expected to generate a larger net trade-creating effect and complement the discriminatory feature of RTAs but have yet to be empirically proven. Recognizing the limitations of existing studies, we conducted a quantitative analysis on the effects of RTAs with and without trade facilitation provisions on both intra- and extra-bloc trade by using a modified gravity equation. We applied the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation with time varying exporter and importer fixed effect method to panel data consisting of 45,770 country pairs covering 170 countries for 2000-2010. We found that the trade facilitation provisions in existing RTAs are non-discriminatory by generating more intra- and extra-bloc trade in general. In particular, we found that the trade effects of RTAs in the APEC region are much stronger than the general case covering all RTAs in the world. In addition, as we control the trade effect of a country's trade facilitation, which is ranked by the World Bank's logistic performance index, RTAs consisting of trade facilitation provisions are discriminatory for trade in final goods and non-discriminatory for trade in intermediate goods. Overall, we endeavor to "explain," instead of "hypothesizing," why most of the recent RTAs contain trade facilitation provisions, especially in light of the deepening regional interdependence through trade in parts and components under global value chains and support the necessity of multilateralizing RTAs by implementing non-discriminatory trade facilitation provisions.