• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.97-112
• /
• 2012

This study aims to analyse determinants of payment balance of Korea, targeting 65 countries which concluded FTA with Korea in 2012 or are pursuing it with Korea( effectuation, agreement, negotiation and joint research). For an analysis model, economic and geographical variables of target countries were included in explanatory variables of the gravity model and divided values which indicate surpluses or deficits in trade with Korea were marked in dependent variables to perform a logistic analysis. If payment balance in trade between Korea and specific countries is a surplus, a value of 1 is given and if it is a deficit, a value of 0 is given. As a result of estimating the logit model, it was discovered that variables of GDP, GDP per person, total trade with trade partners, petroleum, landlocked countries and maritime powers were not statistically significant. However, variables of total trade, export dependency, import dependency, distance and mineral were statistically significant.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.40 no.6
• /
• pp.485-494
• /
• 2016

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the impact and determinants of bilateral Free Trade Agreements on international total bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea using the Panel Gravity Model. The model estimates the aggregated panel data of exports and imports (excluding transshipment) as a dependent variable during the period from 1996 to 2015. GDP, GDP per capita, distances between bilateral countries, and FTA dummies are included as independent variables. And the economic integration of FTAs including ASEAN+3 and NAFTA3 countries were used as dummy variables. Study results show that GDP and GDP per capita have positive impacts on bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea. In addition, Korea's bilateral FTAs with Singapore, India and the United States have positive effects on total bulk trade volume in Korea. This is the so called trade creation effect. On the other hand, ASEAN+3 and NAFTA have negative effects on the total bulk trade. This is the so called trade diversion effect. Also, the distance between Korea and its trade partners has a negative impact. These findings provide insights for: further academic research, site operators who work in related trade and maritime sectors, and policy makers engaged in port and maritime operations. The results can be used to develop strategies for maximizing bulk port throughput.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.61-76
• /
• 2023

Purpose - The digital service trade has become an important driver of the global service trade. The main purpose of this study is to explore the influencing factors of digital service exports from China and Korea to RCEP sample countries respectively, and to comprehensively study the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries, so as to provide theoretical guidance and a decision-making reference to promote digital service trade exports and digital economy development in China and Korea. Design/methodology - First, the stochastic frontier gravity model was improved by introducing nonefficiency factors affecting digital services trade, extending the gravity model of traditional services trade exports to digital services trade exports. Secondly, the panel data of China and Korea for the eight sample countries of RCEP from 2011 to 2021 were adopted for the empirical analysis of digital service export potential by a stochastic frontier model. Findings - China's economic growth plays a role in increasing China's digital service trade exports, while Korea's economic growth does not play a significant role in increasing Korea's digital service trade exports. However, the economic growth of trading partner countries can play a significant role in boosting the digital service trade in both China and Korea, and comparison shows that Korea has higher resilience in the digital services trade than China. In addition, the market size of target countries plays a positive role in promoting the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea, and the increase in the value-added share of services in target countries will lead to a decrease in the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea. Originality/value - This study is innovative in terms of research perspective and method. Academic research on the export potential of international trade has been extensive, but most studies are based on the perspective of the goods trade, fewer studies are based on the perspective of the service trade, and there are almost no studies based on the perspective of digital service trade. There is a gap based on the comparative analysis of the export potential of the digital service trade between China and Korea. This study extends the gravitational model of traditional service trade exports to digital service trade exports to comparatively analyze the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries. This study addresses this limitation by analyzing a comparative analysis of the digital service trade export potential of China and Korea.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.88-107
• /
• 2021

Purpose - Using a model that highlights Ricardian comparative advantage and Cournot competition, I derive theoretical predictions on how bilateral measures of trade intensity, specialization, and intra-industry are interrelated, and how Ricardian productivity differences affect these measures. We test the predictions using trade and production data, and confirm them. Design/methodology - A simple two-country general equilibrium model is constructed to derive theory-based bilateral indexes. We then test the relationships among them using panel data for 35 countries and 14 industries between 1996 and 2008. Findings - Bilateral trade intensity is increasing in specialization, as in the classical trade theory, and in intra-industry trade, as in the new trade theory. However, productivity differences positively affect specialization, and negatively affect intra-industry trade. These effects cancel each other; thus productivity differences have little impact on trade intensity. Originality/value - This paper provides a comprehensive conceptual framework for understanding the relationship among trade intensity, specialization, intra-industry trade, and productivity differences. We derive theory-consistent measures of specialization, intra-industry trade, and productivity differences. Moreover, we reevaluate the empirical relevance of these variables for the study of gravity equations. This paper is also an effort to capture oligopolistic competition in a general equilibrium framework, interests in which recently resurged.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.5
• /
• pp.39-57
• /
• 2022

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing exports of agricultural products(HS01~HS24) from China to Korea by estimating the gravity model with panel data from 31 provinces in China. The results of the empirical analysis from the panel Tobit model are as follows: The effects of GDP and GDP per capita on agricultural exports are reversed, but their impacts are different on exports of each product, notably HS03, HS07 and HS20. As expected, distance decreases Chinese agricultural exports, and the impact of the relative exchange rate variable is also statistically significant, although it differs from product to product. However, differences in latitude, which considers the heterogeneity of climate and agricultural production conditions between Korea and each Chinese region, does not seem to affect agricultural exports to Korea. The road length, which affects the logistical conditions of each province in China, is not statistically significant either. On the other hand, increases in the number of Chinese visitors to Korea raises the amount of Chinese agricultural exports, including exports of HS03 and HS20. The results also shows that after the Korea-China FTA agreements, agricultural exports have actually decreased, especially exports of non-processed agricultural products, such as HS07.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.3-18
• /
• 2018

This paper analyzes both the FTA effects and FTA spillover effects on bilateral trade using 62 countries' panel data during the period of 2003 ~ 2013. To this end, we construct a FTA dummy variable for the effect of FTA in the model and the weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import for the spillover effect of FTA. Gravity model is applied to the empirical analysis with GMM, fixed and random effects, and PPML estimation. As a result of the analysis, FTA variables have positive relationships with bilateral export and import. The weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import also have positive signs on the bilateral export and import in all estimations. Thus, we conclude that various FTAs of neighbor or 3rd countries increase the bilateral export and import. We provide some implications that a country to increase the amount of trade has a trade relationship with the countries having various FTAs and for the FTA effect analysis, the three-country model is better than to the two-country model.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.41 no.2
• /
• pp.185-202
• /
• 2016

Interests in renewable energy have been increasing with low-carbon policy and concerns about radioactivity. And solar energy is receiving attention as the most realistic energy in the industry. Demand for solar energy was started in Germany and European countries, and further expanding to other countries. And Korea became one of the high technology level countries in that industry. So, systematic analysis is needed for trading fact and overseas expansion of Korea's photovoltaic energy together with increased demand in the world. In this paper, we analyzed panel data for 25 years, from 1990 to 2014 from 11 countries that have track record with Korea's PV product. It is conducted based on Gravity model and matched with general report for Korean PV industry. But it shows different result for other factors.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.233-254
• /
• 2022

Although there is growing literature evidence of linkages between global value chains (GVCs) and foreign direct investment (FDI), the results are mixed and ambiguous by geographic dimension, time period and sectoral scope. Moreover, bilateral approaches on these connections have been rarely analyzed. In this context, we investigate the effect of bilateral greenfield FDI and cross-border M&A on GVC linkages between host countries and source countries. We match three-year averages of bilateral FDI and UNCTAD-Eora GVC value-added data from 2005 to 2019 between 37 OECD sources and 176 host countries (37 OECD versus 139 non-OECD countries). In the structural gravity model, the empirical specification includes bilateral and country-period fixed effects and uses a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. We find that greenfield and M&A FDI promote forward and backward GVC linkage for all sectors between OECD countries, whereas greenfield FDI promotes backward GVC linkage between OECD and non-OECD countries. In addition, the results indicate that the degree of influence of GVCs by FDI flows is greater for forward GVC than backward GVC among OECD countries.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.221-243
• /
• 2016

This study examined the trade of the Central Asian CIS countries and the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region. These countries are rich in resources such as oil, natural gas and aluminum. These countries were switched to capitalist market economy after independence from the Soviet Union. So, these countries are considered as new emerging markets. This study analyzed the current status of trade between Daegu-Gyeongbuk region and Central Asian CIS countries. The result of analysis of the trade structure between the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Central Asian CIS countries, and of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region exports to Central Asian CIS countries showed insufficience when compared with the total export of korea. In this study, we used the gravity model to analyze the trade volume of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region and Central Asian CIS countries. The result of analysis is that the globalization of Central Asian CIS countries appeared to be effective in increasing trade. In order to increase trade, Korea and CIS countries should strengthen their economic cooperation. Especially, these countries should try to implement FTAs for economic integration. The Central Asian CIS countries have an industrial structure that relies on resource exports. So, they have a blueprint for diversification of industries through national long-term plans. The Daegu-Gyeongbuk region's economy has been going through long-term stagnation. If the Daegu-Gyeongbuk companies can enter the Central Asian CIS countries, it can be a solution for the local economy.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.127-152
• /
• 2017

With the advent of the WTO system in 1995, non-tariff barriers including technical barriers to trade(TBT) has become one of the important issues in world trade order. The purpose of this study is to analyse an impact of the calibration and measurement capabilities(CMC), the degree of equivalence of national measurement standards which is maintained by NMIs to provide governments with a technical foundation for wider agreements related to international trade. The results of the analysis using the gravity model with the proxy of the CMC shows that the CMC has a positive impact on Korean trade. Particularly, it was estimated that the CMC registered by high-income economies has more impact on Korean trade than those by low income economies. This implies that the countries highly dependent upon foreign trade like Korea need to have much more interest in the investment into measurement standards and science which is generally considered to be a public goods.