• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.88-95
• /
• 2021

In Korea, which achieved economic growth due to export industries, the economic importance of the foreign port transportation industry is very great. The government took the initiative in fostering the foreign port transportation industry, and as a result, it developed into one of the top 10 foreign port transport countries in the world. However, due to the poor management of the small and medium-sized foreign port transport business and the trade dispute between countries, the foreign port transportation industry has faced a long-term invasion. Therefore, in order for these companies to recover again, they will, among other things, have to reorganize their operational inefficiency to carry out efficient production activities. In this study, we want to analyze the management efficiency of the top 10% companies in the unlisted domestic outbound shipping industry, present the project value of inefficient enterprises, and confirm the reference collection of companies that may be subject to benchmarking. For this purpose, a total of 10 foreign port transportation industry were analysed for efficiency and scale profitability (RTS) of the CCR and BCC models. The analysis showed that there were a total of six entities with BCC efficiency and five entities with CCR efficiency. In addition, there were a total of five entities with both BCC and CCR efficiency.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.373-394
• /
• 2020

The strengthening of multilateral international sanctions against North Korea has raised questions as to how effective they are in exerting pressure on the country's economy. In this paper, we address this question by examining their impact on the country's integration into regional and global apparel production networks. North Korea has in the past decade become an increasingly competitive exporter of apparel on the basis of consignment-based processing arrangements. Official trade data shows a sharp drop in North Korean exports of clothing since the sectoral ban in 2017. There is evidence to suggest, however, that exports have continued on a more informal and clandestine basis. North Korea's integration into apparel production networks has also taken the form of the dispatch of workers to factories in China's northeastern border regions. Yet there is evidence that the recent sanctions imposed on such practices has similarly led to illicit practices such as working on visitors' visas, often with the help of Chinese enterprises and local government. The resilience of North Korea's integration into apparel production networks follows a capitalist logic and is result of the highly profitable nature of apparel production for all actors concerned and a correspondingly strong desire to evade sanctions. As such, the analysis contributes to the literature on sanctions that suggests that the measures may contribute to emergence of growing informal and illicit practices and to the role of the clandestine economy.

• Journal of Ginseng Culture
• /
• v.3
• /
• pp.90-118
• /
• 2021

Gaeseong fostered the conditions necessary for modern capitalism, as huge capital was accumulated through the cultivation and trade of ginseng, which were activities that flourished in the 18th century. During the Japanese colonial era, ginseng merchants were not simply limited to acquiring landowner capital from ginseng trade but actively converted such resource to productive and financial capital, thereby becoming modern entrepreneurs. Ginseng merchants led the joint management and investment of Gaeseong Electric Co., Ltd., Daehan Cheonil Bank, Gaeseong Brewing Co., Ltd., and Songgo Textile Company, founded in the early 20th century. They pursued corporate profits and, as leading individuals of society, spearheaded regional development by supporting educational and cultural projects in Gaeseong. These projects included the establishment of the Gaeseong Commercial School, the publication of Goryeo Times, and the operation of the Gaeseong Jwa Theater. Although liberal economics prioritized shareholder interest, the 21st century witnessed an emphasis on social responsibility among stakeholders asthe major purpose of enterprises. A trend that emerged was ESG (environment, social, governance) management, in which non-financial factors are valued more highly than financial performance. A successful business, which was denoted only by high profits in the past, is now defined by whether a company fulfills its social responsibility. In the early 20th century, the corporate activities of ginseng merchants in Gaeseong reflected entrepreneurship and stakeholder-centered ESG management, which later emerged as essential elements of modern business management. The modern management philosophy ahead of its times stemmed from the regionality of Gaeseong. The political discrimination against Gaeseong residents in the Joseon Dynasty precluded them from becoming government officers, and under a strict social hierarchy, yangban ("noblemen"), the intellectuals of the Joseon Dynasty, were forced to serve as merchants. Son Bong-sang and Kong Seong-hak, aside from being representative ginseng merchants, were both Confucian scholars and writers. The second and third generations of ginseng merchant families who had received higher education abroad returned to Gaeseong to carry on with their family businesses, then established modern companies with capital accrued from the ginseng industry. An analysis of the commercial activities of ginseng merchants in the early 20th century confirmed that these individuals were pioneering entrepreneurs who adopted the ESG management philosophy. In ginseng merchants, one sees a dimension of capitalism with a human face, as with ginseng thatsaves human life.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.69-88
• /
• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.48 no.3
• /
• pp.43-68
• /
• 2023

In this study, in relation to "Chapter 3 Support for Priority Purchase of Technology Development Products" of the 「Market Channel Support Act」, this study investigated the positive growth impact of technology development products subject to preferential purchase on small and medium sized enterprises. The data used for empirical verification is for 371 companies that obtained certification for technology development products subject to preferential purchase in 2016 and Data from SMEs were collected from 2017 to 2021, Sales, operating profit, and net profit was identified, and empirical verification. And conducted through statistical analysis to determine whether it had a positive effect on the growth factors of SMEs. In addition, data from 225 technology development product certification companies were collected, and empirical testing was conducted through t-test analysis on the change in growth factors before and after acquiring certification. As a result of statistical analysis, it was found that the total assets, certified sales, operating profit, and net profit, which are the growth factors of a company, are all positively affected according to the type of technology development product certification. However, in the case of authentication types, some authentications showed significant negative results. In addition, significant results were derived that after acquiring certification had a positive effect on growth factors than before acquiring certification. Consistent with this conclusion, I think that it is effective for technology development-based SMEs to enter the public procurement market and utilize the technology development product priority purchase policy for market exploitation and corporate growth. And the government should strengthen the market support policy to create demand so that SMEs can enter the procurement market and actively utilize the preferential purchase system, and come up with an improvement plan so that public institutions can actively utilize the preferential purchase system.

• Journal of Distribution Research
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2012

The conflict between major corporations and small and medium-sized businesses is being aggravated, the trickle down effect is not working properly, and, as the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of the business limiting system continues to swirl, the plan proposed to protect the business domain of small and medium-sized businesses, resolve polarization between these businesses and large corporations, and protect small family run stores is the suitable business type designation system for small and medium-sized businesses. The current status of carrying out this system of selecting suitable business types among small and medium-sized businesses involves receiving applications for 234 items among the suitable business types and items from small and medium-sized businesses in manufacturing, and then selecting the items of the consultative group by analyzing and investigating the actual conditions. Suitable business type designation in the service industry will involve designation with priority on business types that are experiencing social conflict. Three major classifications of the service industry, related to the livelihood of small and medium-sized businesses, will be first designated, and subsequently this will be expanded sequentially. However, there is the concern that when designated as a suitable business type or item, this will hinder the growth motive for small to medium-sized businesses, and designation all cause decrease in consumer welfare. Also it is highly likely that it will operate as a prior regulation, cause side-effects by limiting competition systematically, and also be in violation against the main regulations of the FTA system. Moreover, it is pointed out that the system does not sufficiently reflect reverse discrimination factor against large corporations. Because conflict between small to medium sized businesses and large corporations results from the expansion of corporations to the service industry, which is unrelated to their key industry, it is necessary to introduce an advanced contract method like a master franchise or local franchise system and to develop local small to medium sized businesses through a franchise system to protect these businesses and dealers. However, this method may have an effect that contributes to stronger competitiveness of small to medium sized franchise businesses by advancing their competitiveness and operational methods a step further, but also has many negative aspects. First, as revealed by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the franchise industry is contributing to the strengthening of competitiveness through the economy of scale by organizing existing individual proprietors and increasing the success rate of new businesses. It is also revealed to be a response measure by the government to stabilize the economy of ordinary people and is emphasized as a 'useful way' to revitalize the service industry and improve the competitiveness of individual proprietors, and has been involved in contributions to creating jobs and expanding the domestic market by providing various services to consumers. From this viewpoint, franchises fit the purpose of the suitable business type system and is not something that is against it. Second, designation as a suitable business type may decrease investment for overseas expansion, R&D, and food safety, as well negatively affect the expansion of overseas corporations that have entered the domestic market, due to the contraction and low morale of large domestic franchise corporations that have competitiveness internationally. Also because domestic franchise businesses are hard pressed to secure competitiveness with multinational overseas franchise corporations that are operating in Korea, the system may cause difficulty for domestic franchise businesses in securing international competitiveness and also may result in reverse discrimination against these overseas franchise corporations. Third, the designation of suitable business type and item can limit the opportunity of selection for consumers who have up to now used those products and can cause a negative effect that reduces consumer welfare. Also, because there is the possibility that the range of consumer selection may be reduced when a few small to medium size businesses monopolize the market, by causing reverse discrimination between these businesses, the role of determining the utility of products must be left ot the consumer not the government. Lastly, it is desirable that this is carried out with the supplementation of deficient parts in the future, because fair trade is already secured with the enforcement of the franchise trade law and the best trade standard of the Fair Trade Commission. Overlapping regulations by the suitable business type designation is an excessive restriction in the franchise industry. Now, it is necessary to establish in the domestic franchise industry an environment where a global franchise corporation, which spreads Korean culture around the world, is capable of growing, and the active support by the government is needed. Therefore, systems that do not consider the process or background of the growth of franchise businesses and harm these businesses for the sole reason of them being large corporations must be removed. The inhibition of growth to franchise enterprises may decrease the sales of franchise stores, in some cases even bankrupt them, as well as cause other problems. Therefore the suitable business type system should not hinder large corporations, and as both small dealers and small to medium size businesses both aim at improving competitiveness and combined growth, large corporations, small dealers and small to medium sized businesses, based on their mutual cooperation, should not include franchise corporations that continue business relations with them in this system.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.457-491
• /
• 2008

As stage equipment export markets along with special lighting service lack the attraction for already globally established businesses, such markets can be viewed as an advantageous opportunity for SMEs as in general. In reality, global businesses tend to focus on large construction projects and this indicates relatively less substantial markets such as stage equipment and special lighting service export are more suitable for SME businesses. However, possible problems may be recognized as following; doubtful capabilities by such businesses to join in the vast and competitive global market and pursue manufacturing and service based export. This point is also supported by the fact that such in general SME businesses have substantially less experience in exporting products and services abroad. Realizing the distinctive features of the Korean economy, it is unarguable that every sector and area of global market must be regarded and monitored closely. Hence, it can be argued that there is an imminent need for establishment of supportive institution to assist export process of combination of stage equipments and special lighting service. This study emphasizes the need to improve export process of stage equipments, special lighting services as well as other related products and services which have been focused in domestic market only until now. Further, it also analyzed the potential prospect of such direction reconciling current crisis our manufacturing industry is facing. Even though it maybe regarded as one of the niche market for export of Korea in the short term view, stage equipment and special lighting service industry may rapidly grow as the global cultural industries have grown along with the increase of national income earnings overall. Due to such advantageous features, it can be expected that such industries will show strong growth in the near future. After analyzing the fact that Korea's plants (eg. powerplants) export sector is at its boom, there is a need to transform stage equipment and special lighting service export market into a primary market from a secondary(niche) market for SMEs. This study is viewed from the Korean economic and export sector aspect in the aim of seeking a solution to conquest our realistic limit in our export sector by developing a suitable export model. There have been cases of very few attempts to expand abroad by SMEs who have failed miserably due to their failure to adapt to foreign culture, practice and languages as well as substantial lack in experience in export marketing. Despite this, neglecting our manufacturing industry as it is which is showing its limit and problems is out of option therefore, it is imminent that we come up with an effective measure to address this problem and service export can be suggested as one of them. This study reveals manufacturing-service export model of stage equipment and special lighting service and its related areas is recognized as a field with a very strong future and furthermore, it is expected to bring synergy effects in manufacturing and services sector as well. Further, the operation strategy contains combination, composition and fusion(convergence) of manufacturing and service sectors which could derive various of export products which displays greater success probability or this export model. The outcome of this research is expected to become a useful source for enterprises related to such industry which are seeking a possible global expansion. Furthermore, it is also expected to become a catalyst which fastens the process of global expansion and not only that, we are firmly assured that this study will become an opportunity to improve our current policies and institutions related to this area's export market.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.83-102
• /
• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.1319-1336
• /
• 2006

The successive round of talks oil Korea-USA Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has continued, and it also has the Intellectual property(IPR) unit. Until now, tile one of most disputing concerns in IPR unit through talks is the limitation of compulsory license of claimed invention. The US is urging to establish a safeguard for IPR, as similar measure of the US, to protecting the profit of the US enterprises through these on-going talks, it is more likely expected to take the offensive about infringement of the patent seriously. Based on the current circumstances, the provision strategy study is needed to obtain Korea inventors the first inventor defense under the US patent law system as well as understand the current Korea's patent law and its revision against that in the US. In patent Law, both nations with first to file system and first to invent system permit a prior user of an invention to continue to use the invention notwithstanding its subsequent patenting by another under being subject to certain qualifications and limitations, even though a patent by a later inventor is granted. Normally, the first inventor defense has been used to compensate the drawbacks of the first to file system. The US patent Law, however, adopting the first to invent system admits the first inventor defense. Therefore, pursuing counteract provision under consideration with Korean patent Law system and research environment along with investigating the reason why the US adopted its patent law system, the scope of right, and the new reform of Act. 2005 of the institute, which promotes the first Korean inventor to possess the defense right of the US, provides certain preparations for Korean companies against the expected offensive from the US ones under the US patent Law system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.23-48
• /
• 2021

The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.