• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• 제20권4호
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.43-50
• /
• 2015

In this study, single PCR and multiplex PCR tests were examined for identification of four types of squid species (giant squid, cuttlefish, octopus, beka squid) purchased from fish market as well as aquatic processed products in Busan. To design the specific primers against each species, the nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial 16s rRNA gene of Architeuthis dux, Todarodes pacificus, Enteroctopus dofleini, Enteroctopus megalocyathus, Uroteuthis chinensis, Uroteuthis duvauceli, Uroteuthis edulis groups were analyzed for the identification of each species registered in the GeneBank (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) and have been used for comparative analysis. In order to obtain the size variation of amplified fragments on multiplex PCR, we designed KOJ-F, OJ-F, OCT-F, HAN-F, ALLR primers for each species. The optimal PCR conditions and primers were selected for four types of squid species to determine target base sequences in its PCR products. In the case of single PCR, giant squid was only amplified by KOJ-F/ALLR primer; cuttlefish was only amplified by OJ-F/ALLR primer; octopus was only amplified by OCT-F/ALLR primer; and beka squid was only amplified by HAN-F/ALLR primer. For multiplex PCR, the mixture of four kinds of genomic DNA (giant squid, cuttlefish, octopus, beka squid) been prepared as a template and used together with the mixture of KOJ-F/OJ-F/OCT-F/HAN-F/ALLR primers in the reaction. By the multiplex PCR, it is confirmed that four samples are correspond to multiple simultaneous amplicon. Finally, we validated the established methods of multiplex PCR in the aquatic processed products. Although the mitochondrial 16s rRNA primers used in this study was useful as a marker for detection of each species among them, the study indicated that the established multiplex PCR method can be more useful tool for monitoring the processed products.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.1619-1637
• /
• 2000

A review was undertaken to obtain information on the range of beak-trimming methods available or under development. Beak-trimming of commercial layer replacement pullets is a common yet critical management tool that can affect the performance for the life of the flock. The most obvious advantage of beak-trimming is a reduction in cannibalism although the extent of the reduction in cannibalism depends on the strain, season, and type of housing, flock health and other factors. Beak-trimming also improves feed conversion by reducing food wastage. A further advantage of beak-trimming is a reduction in the chronic stress associated with dominance interactions in the flock. Beak-trimming of birds at 7-10 days is favoured by Industry but research over last 10 years has shown that beak-trimming at day-old causes the least stress on birds and efforts are needed to encourage Industry to adopt the practice of beak-trimming birds at day-old. Proper beak-trimming can result in greatly improved layer performance but improper beak-trimming can ruin an other wise good flock of hens. Re-trimming is practiced in most flocks, although there are some flocks that only need one trimming. Given the continuing welfare scrutiny of using a hot blade to cut the beak, attempts have been made to develop more welfare friendly methods of beak-trimming. Despite the developments in design of hot blade beak-trimmers the process has remained largely unchanged. That is, a red-hot blade cuts and cauterises the beak. The variables in the process are blade temperature, cauterisation time, operator ability, severity of trimming, age of trimming, strain of bird and beak length. This method of beak-trimming is still overwhelmingly favoured in Industry and there appears to be no other alternative procedures that are more effective. Sharp secateurs have been used trim the upper beak of both layers and turkeys. Bleeding from the upper mandible ceases shortly after the operation, and despite the regrowth of the beak a reduction of cannibalism has been reported. Very few differences have been noted between behaviour and production of the hot blade and cold blade cut chickens. This method has not been used on a large scale in Industry. There are anecdotal reports of cannibalism outbreaks in birds with regrown beaks. A robotic beak-trimming machine was developed in France, which permitted simultaneous, automated beak-trimming and vaccination of day-old chicks of up to 4,500 chickens per hour. Use of the machine was not successful because if the chicks were not loaded correctly they could drop off the line, receive excessive beak-trimming or very light trimming. Robotic beak-trimming was not effective if there was a variation in the weight or size of chickens. Capsaicin can cause degeneration of sensory nerves in mammals and decreases the rate of beak regrowth by its action on the sensory nerves. Capsaicin is a cheap, non-toxic substance that can be readily applied at the time of less severe beak-trimming. It suffers the disadvantage of causing an extreme burning sensation in operators who come in contact with the substance during its application to the bird. Methods of applying the substance to minimise the risk to operators of coming in contact with capsaicin need to be explored. A method was reported which cuts the beaks with a laser beam in day-old chickens. No details were provided on the type of laser used, or the severity of beak-trimming, but by 16 weeks the beaks of laser trimmed birds resembled the untrimmed beaks, but without the bill tip. Feather pecking and cannibalism during the laying period were highest among the laser trimmed hens. Currently laser machines are available that are transportable and research to investigate the effectiveness of beak-trimming using ablasive and coagulative lasers used in human medicine should be explored. Liquid nitrogen was used to declaw emu toes but was not effective. There was regrowth of the claws and the time and cost involved in the procedure limit the potential of using this process to beak-trim birds.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• 제36권2호
• /
• pp.63-86
• /
• 2020

The tax lease scheme for ships is an advanced ship financing tool that generates tax benefits through accelerated depreciation of capital allowances and transferring them to the ship operator (leasee) via reductions in rental payments. The scheme was introduced by Japan in 1978 and by France in 1998 to support their shipping and shipbuilding industries. The size of tax benefits varies by country depending on the depreciation rate for ships, corporate tax rate, and the tax system on profits from the sale of ship. This study uses a virtual model of the Korean tax lease scheme for ships based on the French tax lease scheme. The size of tax benefits is calculated and compared to those in the French and Japanese tax lease schemes. According to the analysis, the size of the tax benefit was approximately 19% for France, 14% for Japan, and 12% for Korea. This is differentiated by the country's depreciation rate and corporate tax rate, which have the greatest impact on the size of tax benefits. For the Korean virtual model, if the tax benefits are distributed by the operator and the investor at the rate of 75:25, the operator is expected to enjoy tax benefits equivalent to about 9% of the ship price and the investor to enjoy 3%. Despite limited information and data regarding the tax lease scheme for ships, this study was the first attempt in Korea to design a virtual model of the Korean tax lease scheme based on some predictable assumptions. Therefore, a group of shipping, financing, and legal experts will follow up on more professional and practical reviews of the model in the near future. Hence, this study will serve as a small contribution to the early introduction of the Korean tax lease scheme for ships.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• 제46권2호
• /
• pp.52-61
• /
• 2018

Urban heat islands occur due to increases in the extent of artificial surfaces such as concrete, asphalt and high-rise buildings. In this regard, research into the use of satellite thermal infrared images for thermal environment analysis of urban areas is being carried out. However, such analysis of the characteristics of individual land cover with low-resolution satellite images suffers from limitations because land cover patterns in urban areas are complicated. Recently, UAV has been widely used, which can compensate for this limitation as it is able to acquire high-resolution images. In this paper, the accuracy of UAV infrared images is verified and the applicability of UAV in urban thermal environment analysis is examined by comparing the results with land surface temperatures from Landsat 8 thermal images. The results show a high positive correlation of temperature values at 0.95, and no statistically significant difference between the two groups. Comparisons of land surface temperature according to land cover showed that the largest difference observed was $4.63^{\circ}C$ in the Used area, and UAV images with small cell units reflected various surface temperatures. Furthermore, it was possible to analyze the surface temperatures of various green spaces such as wetlands and street tree areas, which can lower surface temperatures in urban areas, with street tree shadows reducing surface temperatures by about $4-6^{\circ}C$. UAV can easily and rapidly measure the surface temperature of urban areas and is able to analyze various types of green spaces. Thus, this is an effective tool for thermal environment analysis in urban areas to aid in the design or management of urban green spaces, as it can allow for land cover and the effects of the various green spaces.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• 제28권3호
• /
• pp.177-183
• /
• 2010

Purpose: Simulation using computed tomography (CT) is now widely available for radiation treatment planning for breast cancer. It is an important tool to help define the tumor target and normal tissue based on anatomical features of an individual patient. In Korea, most patients have small sized breasts and the purpose of this study was to review the margin of treatment field between conventional two-dimensional (2D) planning and CT based three-dimensional (3D) planning in patients with small breasts. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five consecutive patients with early breast cancer undergoing breast conservation therapy were selected. All patients underwent 3D CT based planning with a conventional breast tangential field design. In 2D planning, the treatment field margins were determined by palpation of the breast parenchyma (In general, the superior: base of the clavicle, medial: midline, lateral: mid - axillary line, and inferior margin: 2 m below the inframammary fold). In 3D planning, the clinical target volume (CTV) ought to comprise all glandular breast tissue, and the PTV was obtained by adding a 3D margin of 1 cm around the CTV except in the skin direction. The difference in the treatment field margin and equivalent field size between 2D and 3D planning were evaluated. The association between radiation field margins and factors such as body mass index, menopause status, and bra size was determined. Lung volume and heart volume were examined on the basis of the prescribed breast radiation dose and 3D dose distribution. Results: The margins of the treatment field were smaller in the 3D planning except for two patients. The superior margin was especially variable (average, 2.5 cm; range, -2.5 to 4.5 cm; SD, 1.85). The margin of these targets did not vary equally across BMI class, menopause status, or bra size. The average irradiated lung volume was significantly lower for 3D planning. The average irradiated heart volume did not decrease significantly. Conclusion: The use of 3D CT based planning reduced the radiation field in early breast cancer patients with small breasts in relation to conventional planning. Though a coherent definition of the breast is needed, CT-based planning generated the better plan in terms of reducing the irradiation volume of normal tissue. Moreover it was possible that 3D CT based planning showed better CTV coverage including postoperative change.

• Journal of Science Education
• /
• 제34권2호
• /
• pp.225-236
• /
• 2010

The purpose of this study is to analyze and evaluate the Cyber Home Learning contents of Earth science area in the basic course of the $10^{th}$ grade. For this purpose, we applied the 'Cyber Home Study Content Quality Control Tool' presented in Elementary Secondary Education e-Learning Quality Management Guidelines (Ver.2.0)' of Korea Education & Research Information Service(2008). The results of Cyber home learning contents analysis are as follow: First, it was presented that the study guide introduced the contents which should be studied for one class, properly. And it was not analyzed that the diagnosis assesment was not completed in the initiative study; Second, it was possible to study choosing the contents fitting the learner's level of learning in the main study, it was comprised of about 10 minutes. Third, it was performed without feedback for incorrect answers in the learning assessment, just the number of wrong questions. And the learning arrangement present the important contents learned in that class, summarizing and arranging again. The results of evaluating the contents in Cyber Home Learning are as follows: First, in evaluation section of instructional design, many text materials which were so difficult for learners to read were explained, being provided. Besides, the systematic structures leaves much to be desired, in view of learners' learning experience, contents, and environment. And in evaluation section of learning contents, the error of contents caused the learning contents not to appear, the amount of learning in each section was found too much. Second, in evaluation section of the strategy for Teaching and Learning, when we mention the strategy of Self Directed Learning, the environment to make learners search for information free and self-study possible was not possessed well. And in evaluation section of interaction, it was found that a simple click caused the learning to go on. Third, in evaluation section of evaluating, it was evaluated that there was wanting in consistency in learning aims, contents, evaluation contents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.59-75
• /
• 2020

This study is a case study that applied 'UNDRR's Urban Disaster Resilience Scorecard', an evaluation tool necessary for Incheon Metropolitan City to be certified as an international safe city. I would like to present an example that the results derived from this scorecard contributed to the Incheon Metropolitan City Disaster Reduction Plan. Of course, the Disaster Resilience Scorecard can't provide a way to improve the resilience of every disaster facing the city. However, it is to find the weakness of the resilience that the city faces, and to propose a solution to reduce the city's disaster risk. This is to help practitioners to recognize the disaster risks that Incheon Metropolitan City faces. In addition, the solution recommended by UNDRR was suggested to provide resilience in areas vulnerable to disasters. It was confirmed that this process can contribute to improving the disaster resilience of Incheon Metropolitan City. UNDRR has been spreading 'Climate Change, Disaster-resistant City Creation Campaign', aka MCR (Making Cities Resilient) Campaign, to cities all over the world since 2010 to reduce global cities' disasters. By applying the disaster relief guidelines adopted by UNDRR, governments, local governments, and neighboring cities are encouraged to collaborate. As a result of this study, Incheon Metropolitan city's UN Urban Resilience Scorecard was evaluated as a strong resilience field by obtaining scores of 4 or more (4.3~5.0) in 5 of 10 essentials; 1. Prepare organization for disaster resilience and prepare for implementation, 4. Strong resilience Urban development and design pursuit, 5. Preservation of natural cushions to enhance the protection provided by natural ecosystems, 9. Ensure effective disaster preparedness and response, 10. Rapid restoration and better reconstruction. On the other hand, in the other five fields, scores of less than 4 (3.20~3.85) were obtained and evaluated as weak resilience field; 2. Analyze, understand and utilize current and future risk scenarios, 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience, 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience, 7. Understanding and strengthening social competence for resilience, 8. Strengthen resilience of infrastructure. In addition, through this study, the risk factors faced by Incheon Metropolitan City could be identified by priority, resilience improvement measures to minimize disaster risks, urban safety-based urban development plans, available disaster reduction resources, and integrated disasters. Measures were prepared.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• 제37권2호
• /
• pp.75-83
• /
• 2012

Marking the first anniversary of the Fukushima nuclear accident, which took place on March 11th, 2011, the level of adolescent awareness and understanding of radiation was surveyed, and the results were then compared with those for adults with the same questionnaires conducted at similar times. A qualitative survey and frequency analysis were made for the design of the study methodology. Those surveyed were limited to 3rd grade middle school students, 15 years of age, who are the future generation. The questionnaire, which is a survey tool, was directly distributed to the students and 2,217 answers were analysed. The questionnaires were composed of 40 questions, and it was found that Cronbach's coefficient was high with 'self awareness of radiation' at 0.494, 'risk of radiation' at 0.843, 'benefit of radiation' at 0.748, 'radiological safety control' at 0.692, 'information sources of radiation' at 0.819, and 'impacts of Fukushima accident'. The results of the survey analysis showed that the students' knowledge of radiation was not very high with 67.4 points (69.5 points for adults) calculated on a maximum scale of 100 points (converted points). The impacts of the Fukushima nuclear accident were found to be less significant to adolescents than adults, and the rate of answer of "so" or " very so" in the following questions demonstrates this well. It was also shown that the impacts of the Fukushima accident to adolescents were comparatively low with 27.0% (38.9% for adults) on the question of "attitude changed against nuclear power due to the Fukushima accident," 65.7%(86.6% for adults) on the question of "the damages from the Fukushima accident was immeasurably huge," and 65.0% (86.3% for adults) on "the Fukushima accident contributed to raising awareness on the safety of nuclear power plants". The adolescents had a high rate of "average" answers on most of the questions compared with adults, and it can be construed that this resulted from adolescent awareness of radiation not being firmly rooted on themselves. This study was the first of its kind for surveying adolescents regarding the level of awareness of radiation after the Fukushima accident, and the results were compared with the survey results of adults, and they are expected to greatly contribute toward establishing a radiation policy by the government in the future.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
• /
• 제9권4호
• /
• pp.271-278
• /
• 2006

Investigations of underground cavities are required to provide useful information for the reinforcement design and monitoring of the ground subsidence areas. It is, therefore, necessary to develop integrated geophysical techniques incorporating different geophysical methods in order to accurately image and to map underground cavities in the ground subsidence areas. In this study, we conducted geophysical investigations for development of integrated geophysical techniques to detect underground cavities at the field test site in the ground subsidence area, located at Yongweol-ri, Muan-eup, Muan-gun, Jeollanam-do. We examined the applicability of geophysical methods such as electrical resistivity, electromagnetic, and microgravity to cavity detection with the aid of borehole survey results. The underground cavities are widely present within the limestone bedrock overlain by the alluvial deposits in the test site where the ground subsidences have occurred in the past. The limestone cavities are mostly filled with groundwater or clays saturated with water in the site. The cavities, thus, have low electrical resistivity and density compared to the surrounding host bedrock. The results of the study have shown that the zones of low resistivity and density correspond to the zones of the cavities identified in the boreholes at the site, and that the geophysical methods used are very effective to detect the underground cavities. Furthermore, we could map the distribution of cavities more precisely with the study results incorporated from the various geophysical methods. It is also important to notice that the microgravity method, which has rarely used in Korea, is a very promising tool to detect underground cavities.