• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.43 no.6
• /
• pp.469-474
• /
• 2019

One of the world's major resources is crude oil, the most fundamental part of the industry. There is no place that does not use crude oil. Petroleum refining products and chemical production industrial products are produced through nearby petrochemical complexes and ports after importing crude oil. There would be a possible relationship among the petrochemical complexes and nearby regional ports working with liquid cargoes. To confirm these relations, Ulsan Port, Daesan Port, and Yeosu Gwangyang Port were selected for this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model using time series data was applied. A Unit Root Test was performed. The relationship was confirmed through the Granger and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.

• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.91-112
• /
• 2018

This study examined the dynamic relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China. As an alternative to the conventional method of having the same integration of time series and large samples, ARDL method and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis were applied. As a result, urbanization income, income, and energy consumption have a long-term stable equilibrium. Urbanization and income have a positive effect on energy consumption in the long run, but short-term changes of urbanization and income have no significant effect on energy consumption changes. The adjusted coefficient was -0.2395, which was statistically significant. In the causality test, income and energy consumption are useful to predict each other, but urbanization is exogenous because there are no causality with other variables. Since the process of urbanization in China has been proceeding slowly and deliberately by the government, it can be seen that the long-term effects of urbanization are clear and exogenous.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.36 no.4
• /
• pp.1-16
• /
• 2020

Since Korea has excellent port infrastructure and competitive petrochemical complexes, there is plenty of potential for creating an oil hub in Northeast Asia. In particular, Ship-to-Ship (STS), which creates high added values, contributes greatly to the national economy. In this study, the liquid cargo volumes of chemical industrial products, refined petroleum products, and crude oil were analyzed at the national and regional (Busan, Ulsan, and Yeosu/Gwangyang) levels. Additionally, a Granger causality analysis was performed between imports, exports, and transshipments, in pairs. ADF, PP, and KPSS were analyzed for the unit root test. In addition, the VAR model and expanded VAR model suggested by Toda and Yamamoto were used for further analyses. Findings revealed a difference in Granger causality depending on the region or cargo type. These findings suggest that policies and incentive schemes for ports need to be differentiated according to the region and cargo types. In addition, the different patterns in the relationship between transshipments and import-export petrochemical cargoes should be considered.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.19-23
• /
• 2017

It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries' economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.265-275
• /
• 2021

This study's motivation is to investigate the association between the stock market, remittance, and the pandemic of COVID-19 for the period from March 3, 2020, to December 14, 2020. For evaluating the impact of COVID-19 and remittances on stock market behaviour during the pandemic, the study applies Autoregressive Distributed lagged (ARDL) for magnitudes estimation and directional association through the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Study findings from ARDL estimation revealed that COVID-19 measured by detecting new cases negatively influences the stock market both in the long-term and short-term. Remittance positively influences the stock market behaviour, particularly in the long-term. Furthermore, the directional causality test disclosed unidirectional causal effects between COVID-19 and the stock market behaviour, which establishes all proxy measures for the equation's stock market. The hypothesis results explain the causal relationship between remittance inflows and the stock market in Bangladesh. The study's application will help policymakers rethink the policies for channelizing remittances for productive investment areas. Furthermore, the study's findings will reinstate the widely perceived notions, which is the critical role of remittance in the economy even though the economy passes through a great pandemic.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.749-751
• /
• 2015

We here report on the outreach activity using the Keio University Internet telescope performed by Science agora 2012 and 2013 in Tokyo. Many visitors came to our booth and operated the Keio University Internet telescope, and our project was awarded the prize of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. In addition, based on the questionnaire for that occasion, the usefulness of the Internet telescopes in outreach activities is considered.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.217-239
• /
• 2018

This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.97-122
• /
• 2013

The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.3-20
• /
• 2017

Traditional co-integration analysis method is known to be difficult to clearly determine the relationship between the cointegrated variables. This study utilizes a fractional cointegation method and a causal analysis of time and frequency domain among the exchange rates of Korea, China and Japan. The results show that even though traditional cointegration methods did not clarify the existence of cointegration, exchange rates were fractionally cointegrated. Causal analysis of time domain and frequency domain provided somewhat different results, but the yen/dollar was useful for forecasting won/dollar and yuan/dollar. Proper use of causal analysis of frequency domain and fractional cointegration emthods may provide useful information that can not be explained from the traditional method.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.693-702
• /
• 2020

The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.