• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• 제12권11호
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• pp.99-107
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• 2021

We live in a myriad of data. Various data are created in all situations in which we work, and we discover the meaning of data through big data technology. Many efforts are underway to find meaningful data. This paper introduces an analysis technique that enables humans to make better choices through the trend and prediction of time series data as a principal component analysis technique. Principal component analysis constructs covariance through the input data and presents eigenvectors and eigenvalues that can infer the direction of the data. The proposed method computes a reference axis in a time series data set having a similar directionality. It predicts the directionality of data in the next section through the angle between the directionality of each time series data constituting the data set and the reference axis. In this paper, we compare and verify the accuracy of the proposed algorithm with LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) through cryptocurrency trends. As a result of comparative verification, the proposed method recorded relatively few transactions and high returns(112%) compared to LSTM in data with high volatility. It can mean that the signal was analyzed and predicted relatively accurately, and it is expected that better results can be derived through a more accurate threshold setting.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.952-954
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• 2003

In this paper, we present the different characteristics of NDVI fluctuation pattern between irrigated and non-irrigated area in Suphanburi province, in Central Thailand. For non-irrigated rice cultivation area, there is a strong correlation between NDVI fluctuation and peak rainfall, while there is a lower correlation with irrigated area. In this study, the 'peak detector' classifier was developed to identify the area of non-irrigated and irrigated cropping and its cropping intensity (number of crops per year). This classifier was created based on cropping characteristics such as number of crops, time or planting period of each crop and its relationship with the peak of rainfall. The classified result showed good accuracy in identification irrigated and nonirrigated rice cultivation areas.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.34-42
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• 1997

This paper presents new fuzzy learning algorithms and their applications to time series prediction. During generating fuzzy rules from numerical data, there is a tendency to produce conflicting rules which have same premise but different consequence. To resolve the problem, we propose MCM(Modified Center Method) which is proven to reduce the error in the prediction. We have applied MCM to the analysis of Mackey-Glass time series and Gas Furnace da.ta to verify its efficiency.

• Quantitative Bio-Science
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2018

As high frequency (HF, for short) time series is now prevalent in the presence of real time big data, volatility computations based on traditional ARCH/GARCH models need to be further developed to suit the high frequency characteristics. This article reviews realized volatilities (RV) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) to deal with high frequency volatility computations. As a (functional) infinite dimensional models, the fARCH and fGARCH are introduced to accommodate ultra high frequency (UHF) volatilities. The fARCH and fGARCH models are developed in the recent literature by Hormann et al. [1] and Aue et al. [2], respectively, and our discussions are mainly based on these two key articles. Real data applications to domestic UHF financial time series are illustrated.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.5-14
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• 2018

All kinds of monitoring data in construction site could have outlier created from diverse cause. In this study generation technique of synthesis value, its regression, final outlier detection and assessment are conducted to distinct outlier data included in extensive time series dataset. Synthesis value having weight factor of correlation between a number of datasets consist of many monitoring data enable to detect outlier by increasing its correlation. Standard artificial dataset in which intentional outliers are inserted has been used for assessment of synthesis value technique. These results showed increase of detection accuracy for outlier and general tendency in case of having different time series models in common. Accuracy of outlier detection increased in case of using more dataset and showing similar time series pattern.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.93-101
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• 2016

This paper presents the results obtained using time-series-based methods for structural damage assessment. The methods are applied to a wind turbine blade structure subjected to fatigue loads. A 9 m CX-100 (carbon experimental 100 kW) blade is harmonically excited at its first natural frequency to introduce a failure mode. Consequently, a through-thickness fatigue crack is visually identified at 8.5 million cycles. The time domain data from the piezoelectric active-sensing techniques are measured during the fatigue loadings and used to detect incipient damage. The damage-sensitive features, such as the first four moments and a normality indicator, are extracted from the time domain data. Time series autoregressive models with exogenous inputs are also implemented. These features could efficiently detect a fatigue crack and are less sensitive to operational variations than the other methods.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• 제55권7호
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• pp.265-272
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• 2006

This paper describes a method of parameter estimation of time series data using discrete Fourier transform(DFT). DFT have been mainly used to precisely and rapidly obtain the frequency of a signal. In a dynamic system, a real part of a mode used to learn damping characteristics is a more important factor than the frequency of the mode. The parameter estimation method of this paper can directly estimate modes and parameters, indicating the characteristics of a dynamic system, on the basis of the Fourier transform of the time series data. Real part of a mode estimates by subtracting a frequency of the Fourier spectrum corresponding to 0.707 of a magnitude of the peak spectrum from a peak frequency, or subtracting a frequency of the power spectrum corresponding to 0.5 of the peak power spectrum from a peak frequency, or comparing the Fourier(power) spectrum ratio. Also, the residue and phase of time signal calculate by simple equation with the real part of the mode and the power spectrum that have been calculated. Accordingly, the proposed algorithm is advantageous in that it can estimate parameters of the system through a single DFT without repeatedly calculating a DFT, thus shortening the time required to estimate the parameters.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.369-388
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• 2023

In this paper, we develop the two-step procedure that detects and estimates the position of structural changes for multivariate nonstationary time series, either on mean parameters or second-order structures. We first investigate the presence of mean structural change by monitoring data through the aggregated cumulative sum (CUSUM) type statistic, a sequential procedure identifying the likely position of the change point on its trend. If no mean change point is detected, the proposed method proceeds to scan the second-order structural change by modeling the multivariate nonstationary time series with a multivariate locally stationary Wavelet process, allowing the time-localized auto-correlation and cross-dependence. Under this framework, the estimated dynamic spectral matrices derived from the local wavelet periodogram capture the time-evolving scale-specific auto- and cross-dependence features of data. We then monitor the change point from the lower-dimensional approximated space of the spectral matrices over time by applying the dynamic principal component analysis. Different from existing methods requiring prior information on the type of changes between mean and covariance structures as an input for the implementation, the proposed algorithm provides the output indicating the type of change and the estimated location of its occurrence. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated in simulations and the analysis of two real finance datasets.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.429-442
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• 2014

In this paper, we investigated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time series models for fault detection in semiconductor etch equipment data. The derivative dynamic time warping algorithm was employed for the synchronization of data. The models were generated using a set of data from healthy runs, and the established models were compared with the experimental runs to find the faulty runs. It has been shown that the SARIMA modeling for this data can detect faults in the etch tool data from the semiconductor industry with an accuracy of 80% and 90% using the parameter-wise error computation and the step-wise error computation, respectively. We found that SARIMA is useful to detect incipient faults in semiconductor fabrication.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.115-122
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• 2015

This article is concerned with count time series taking values in non-negative integers. Along with the first order mean of the count time series, conditional variance (volatility) has recently been paid attention to and therefore various integer-valued GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have been suggested in the last decade. We introduce diverse integer-valued GARCH(INGARCH, for short) processes to count time series and a real data application is illustrated as a case study. In addition, zero inflated INGARCH models are discussed to accommodate zero-inflated count time series.