한국지능시스템학회논문지 (Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems)

  • 제7권3호
  • /
  • Pages.34-42
  • /
  • 1997
  • /
  • 1976-9172(pISSN)
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  • 2288-2324(eISSN)
한국지능시스템학회 (Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems)
권호 표지

시계열 예측을 위한 퍼지 학습 알고리즘

Fuzzy Learning Algorithms for Time Series Prediction

  • 김인택 (명지대학교 제어계측공학과) ;
  • 공창욱 (명지대학교 제어계측공학과)
  • 발행 : 1997.08.01
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초록

본 논문은 새로은 퍼지 규칙의 생성을 위한 학습 알고리즘과 시계열 예측에의 응용을 다루고 있다. 데이터에서 IF-THEN문 형태의 퍼지 규칙을 생성시키는 과정에서 동일한 전건부(IF문)에 대해 상이한 후건부(THEN문)가 생겨 모순된 규칙을 형성시키는 경향이 있다. 수정된 중심값 방법(Modified Center Method)으로 명명된 새로운 알고리즘은 이와 같은 모순된 규칙의 형성을 효과적으로 해결하여, 시계열 예측을 수행하는데 그 오차를 줄일 수 있다. 알고리즘의 효과를 살표보기 위해 Mackey-Glass time series와 Gas Furnace data 분석에 적용하였다.

This paper presents new fuzzy learning algorithms and their applications to time series prediction. During generating fuzzy rules from numerical data, there is a tendency to produce conflicting rules which have same premise but different consequence. To resolve the problem, we propose MCM(Modified Center Method) which is proven to reduce the error in the prediction. We have applied MCM to the analysis of Mackey-Glass time series and Gas Furnace da.ta to verify its efficiency.

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참고문헌

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