• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2016

새로운 정보통신 기술의 발전과 더불어 보안 위협도 나날이 지능화 고도화되고 있다. 본 논문은 네트워크 장치나 사물인터넷 경량 장치에서 일련의 주기를 통해 연속적으로 입력되는 시계열 데이터를 통계적 기법을 활용하여 분석하고, 분석 정보를 기반으로 장치의 이상 유무나 비정상 징후를 탐지할 수 있는 시스템을 제안한다. 제안 시스템은 과거에 입력된 데이터를 기반으로 1차 비정상 탐지를 수행하고, 시간 속성이나 그룹의 속성을 기반으로 저장되어있는 시계열 데이터를 기반으로 신뢰구간을 설정하여 2차 비정상 탐지를 수행한다. 다단계 분석은 판정 데이터의 다양성을 통해 신뢰성을 향상시키고 오탐율을 줄일 수 있다.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제29권B호
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• pp.17-23
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• 2009

In many cases, clustering algorithms have been used for extracting and discovering useful information from non-linear data. They have made a great effect on performances of the systems dealing with non-linear data. Thus, this paper presents a new approach called hierarchically structured clustering algorithm, and it is applied to the prediction system for non-linear time series data. The proposed hierarchically structured clustering algorithm (called HCKA: Hierarchical Cross-correlation and K-means clustering Algorithms) in which the cross-correlation and k-means clustering algorithm are combined can accept the correlationship of non-linear time series as well as statistical characteristics. First, the optimal differences of data are generated, which can suitably reveal the characteristics of non-linear time series. Second, the generated differences are classified into the upper clusters for their predictors by the cross-correlation clustering algorithm, and then each classified differences are classified again into the lower fuzzy sets by the k-means clustering algorithm. As a result, the proposed method can give an efficient classification and improve the performance. Finally, we demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed HCKA via typical time series examples.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제27권11호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 시계열 데이터 이상 탐지 수행을 위한 MLOps(Machine Learning Operations) 워크플로를 기술하고 관리할 수 있는 언어와 플랫폼을 제안한다. 시계열 데이터는 IoT 센서, 시스템 성능 지표, 사용자 접속량 등 많은 분야에서 수집되고 있다. 또한, 시스템 모니터링 및 이상 탐지 등 많은 응용 분야에 활용 중이다. 시계열 데이터의 예측 및 이상 탐지를 수행하기 위해서는 분석된 모델을 빠르고 유연하게 운영 환경에 적용할 수 있는 MLOps 플랫폼이 필요하다. 이에, 최근 데이터 분석에 많이 활용되고 있는 Python 기반의 AMML(AI/ML Modeling Language)을 개발하여 손쉽게 MLOps 워크플로를 구성하고 실행할 수 있도록 제안한다. 제안하는 AI MLOps 플랫폼은 AMML을 이용하여 다양한 데이터 소스(R-DB, NoSql DB, Log File 등)에서 시계열 데이터를 추출, 전처리 및 예측을 수행할 수 있다. AMML의 적용 가능성을 검증하기 위해, 변압기 오일 온도 예측 딥러닝 모델을 생성하는 워크플로를 AMML로 구성하고 학습이 정상적으로 수행됨을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.835-841
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• 2005

IGARCH and Stochastic Volatility Model(SVM, for short) have frequently provided useful approximations to the real aspects of financial time series. This article is concerned with modeling various Korean financial time series using both IGARCH and stochastic volatility models. Daily data sets with sample period ranging from 2000 and 2004 including KOSPI, KOSDAQ and won-dollar exchange rate are comparatively analyzed using IGARCH and SVM.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.115-122
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• 2006

A test is suggested for detecting deviations from both multivariate normality and independence. This test can be used for assessing the normality and independence of univariate time series residuals. We derive the limiting distribution of the test statistic and a simulation study is conducted to study the accuracy of the limiting distribution in finite samples. Finally, we apply our method to a real data of time series.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
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• pp.631-634
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• 2004

In this paper, the Bayesian recurrent neural network (BRNN) is proposed to predict time series data. Among the various traditional prediction methodologies, a neural network method is considered to be more effective in case of non-linear and non-stationary time series data. A neural network predictor requests proper learning strategy to adjust the network weights, and one need to prepare for non-linear and non-stationary evolution of network weights. The Bayesian neural network in this paper estimates not the single set of weights but the probability distributions of weights. In other words, we sets the weight vector as a state vector of state space method, and estimates its probability distributions in accordance with the Bayesian inference. This approach makes it possible to obtain more exact estimation of the weights. Moreover, in the aspect of network architecture, it is known that the recurrent feedback structure is superior to the feedforward structure for the problem of time series prediction. Therefore, the recurrent network with Bayesian inference, what we call BRNN, is expected to show higher performance than the normal neural network. To verify the performance of the proposed method, the time series data are numerically generated and a neural network predictor is applied on it. As a result, BRNN is proved to show better prediction result than common feedforward Bayesian neural network.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.216-222
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to predict the performance of female weightlifters using time series analysis. Based on this purpose, a time series analysis was used to calculate the performance prediction model for women(58kg) among the domestic women weightlifters who participated in the Olympics. As a result of creating time series data based on 10 years of record and then evaluating the sequential charts of each athlete group, the female athletes' records did not show any seasonality or difference. In addition, after examining the independence of the data through the creation of a time series model, it was shown that the models produced conformed to the criteria for compliance and that there was no difference in the data, but there was a trend. Accordingly, Holt linear trend analysis of the exponential smoothing model was applied. As a result of deriving the prediction model of the athletes through this process, it was found that the women (58kg) who participated in the Olympics continued to improve within the range of 166.11kg to 184.1kg.

• 한국가시화정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국가시화정보학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.77-80
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• 2002

The recent 3D visualization such as volume rendering, iso-surface rendering or stream line visualization gives more understanding about structures or distribution of data in a space and, moreover, the real-time rendering of a scene enables the animation of time-series data. Because the meteorological data is frequently formed as multi-variables, 3-dimensional and time-series data, the spatial analysis, time-series analysis, vector display, and animation techniques can do important roles to get more understanding about data. In this research, our aim is to develop the 3-dimensional visualization techniques for meteorological data in the PC environment by using IDL. The visualization technology from :his research will be used as basic technology not only for the deeper understanding and the more exact prediction about meteorological environments but also for the scientific and spatial data visualization research in any field from which three-dimensional data comes out such as oceanography, earth science, or aeronautical engineering.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.27-34
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• 2014

In this paper, we investigate the statistical correlation of the time series for temperature measured at the heat box in the automobile drying process. We show, in terms of the sample variance, that a significant non-linear correlation exists in the time series that consist of absolute temperature changes. To investigate further the non-linear correlation, we utilize the volatility, an important concept in the financial market, and induce volatility time series from absolute temperature changes. We analyze the time series of volatilities in terms of the de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a method especially suitable for testing the long-range correlation of non-stationary data, from the correlation perspective. We uncover that the volatility exhibits a long-range correlation regardless of the window size. We also analyze the cross correlation between two (inlet and outlet) volatility time series to characterize any correlation between the two, and disclose the dependence of the correlation strength on the time lag. These results can contribute as important factors to the modeling of forecasting and management of the heat box's temperature.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.377-390
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• 2010

In the case of time-series analysis, it is often more convenient to rely on the frequency domain than the time domain. Spectral density is the core of the frequency-domain analysis that describes autocorrelation structures in a time-series process. Possible ways to estimate spectral density are to compute a periodogram or to average the periodogram over some frequencies with (un)equal weights. This can be an attractive tool to measure the similarity between time-series processes. We employ the metrics based on a smoothed periodogram proposed by Park and Kim (2008) for the classification of different classes of time-series processes. We consider several lag windows with unequal weights instead of a modified Daniel's window used in Park and Kim (2008). We evaluate the performance under various simulation scenarios. Simulation results reveal that the metrics used in this study split the time series into the preassigned clusters better than do the raw-periodogram based ones proposed by Caiado et al. 2006. Our metrics are applied to an economic time-series dataset.