• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-104
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• 2024

China is playing more predominant role in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market worldwide and LNG import price is subject to various factors both at home and abroad. Nevertheless, previous studies rarely heed a multiple of factors. A time-varying parameter factor augmented vector auto-regression (TVP-FAVAR) model is adopted to discover the determinants of China's LNG import price and their dynamic impacts from January 2012 to December 2021. According to the findings, market fundamentals have a greater impact on the import price of natural gas in China than overall economic demand, financial considerations, and world oil prices. The primary determinants include domestic gas consumption, consumer confidence and other demand-side information. Then, there are diverse and time-varying spillover effects of the four common determinants on the volatility of China's LNG import price at different intervals and time nodes. The price volatility is more sensitive and long-lasting to domestic natural gas pricing reform than other negative shocks such as the Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results in this study further proves the importance of domestic natural gas market liberalization. China ought to do more to support the further marketization of natural gas prices while working harder to guarantee natural gas supplies.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.281-286
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• 2023

This study analyzed the causal relationship between housing sales prices and jeonse prices in Seoul, specifically in the Gangnam and Gangbuk neighborhoods. The time-invariant Granger causality test showed bidirectional causality between the sales price and the jeonse price in Seoul and Gangbuk, but no bidirectional causality was found in Gangnam. However, the time-varying Granger causality test showed a Granger causal relationship between the housing jeonse price and the sales price for the entire period after 1993 in all three areas. Notably, the causal effect of jeonse prices on sales prices has been continuous in Gangnam since 2010. These analysis results suggest that an increase in liquidity supply to the jeonse market could increase volatility throughout the housing market, given the strong influence between the sales and jeonse markets in both directions.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.1719-1728
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• 2017

Recent concerns about environmental conditions have triggered the growing interest in using green energy resources. These sources of energy, however, bring new challenges mainly due to their uncertainty and intermittency. In order to alleviate the concerns on the penetration of intermittent energy resources, this paper investigates impacts of realizing demand-side potentials. Among different demand-side management programs, this paper considers demand response wherein consumers change their consumption pattern in response to changing prices. The research studies demand response potentials from different load sectors on generation system well-being. Consumers' sensitivity to time-varying prices is captured via self and cross elasticity coefficients. In the calculation of well-being indices, sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is accompanied with fuzzy logic. Finally, IEEE-RTS is used as the test bed to conduct several simulations and the associated results are thoroughly discussed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.297-309
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• 2021

In this study, to capture the skewness and kurtosis detected in both conditional and unconditional return distributions of the stock markets of Kazakhstan and Russia, two versions of normal mixture GARCH models are employed. The data set consists of daily observations of the Kazakhstan and Russia stock prices, and world crude oil price, covering the period from 1 June 2006 through 1 March 2021. From the empirical results, incorporating the long memory effect on the returns not only provides better descriptions of dynamic behaviors of the stock market prices but also plays a significant role in improving a better understanding of the return dynamics. In addition, normal mixture models for time-varying volatility provide a better fit to the conditional densities than the usual GARCH specifications and has an important advantage that the conditional higher moments are time-varying. This implies that the volatility skews implied by normal mixture models are more likely to exhibit the features of risk and the direction of the information flow is regime-dependent. The findings of this study contain useful information for diverse purposes of cross-border stock market players such as asset allocation, portfolio management, risk management, and market regulations.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.26 no.7A
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• pp.1275-1283
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• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to test whether prices of mobile communication service reflect their varying degrees of call quality, controlling for other service attributes. As, in fact, service is intangible goods difficult to measure its value, this paper makes use of econometric model, hedonic price analysis. Hedonic price analysis, has ever been applied in public or environmental economics, is employed and produces estimates of the prices (or the contributions toward the total price) for each characteristic. This paper applied hedonic technique to the value measurement of a service property for the use of Korean mobile communication. This paper uses actual transaction prices of mobile communication service to determine whether or not the market functions in pricing call quality of mobile communication service. Finally, this show that the willingness to pay of consumer increases as call quality increases and so market makes prices on call qualities. Thus, major concern in this paper is about value measurement o service quality, and also suggest of the possibility to determine call quality value (or price) of mobile communication service.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.69-86
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• 2018

The paper studies the degree of international price dispersion for 300 individual goods and services between cities of three country groups over 1999 and 2013, focusing on the role of oil prices in generating deviations from the law of one price. We find that while oil prices did not contribute to the trend in cross-country price dispersion, it does account for within-country price dispersion. Once the oil price effect is subtracted out, the remaining price dispersion between U.S. cities no longer exhibits a noticeable upward trend. If oil prices increase transportation costs, they should increase the deviations from the law of one price, raising price dispersion. Our findings indicate that this effect is more pronounced within a country, while factors such as elasticity of substitution and other trade barriers are likely to matter more in price dispersion across borders. We view our results as complementary to those that emphasize the role of time-varying factors in accounting for price dispersion.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.93-117
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• 2013

We analyze the optimal hedge ratio and hedge effectiveness with different periodic times between spot and futures on EUA and CER based on EU-ETS. The Main finding are as follows. The first, hedging model which considers the time-varying variance is not more accurate than non-time-varying hedging models. The second, optimal hedge ratios are different even though hedge effectiveness is similar for the hedging purpose. The third, hedge effectiveness has uncertainty if hedge period is short. In case of EUA it needs to over 6 weeks and CER needs to over 7 weeks. The fourth, cross hedge with CER futures is not suitable for profit ratios.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.417-440
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• 2004

For the behavior of the wholesale spot price, a regime switching model with time-varying transition probabilities was estimated using the data from the PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) market. By including the temperature as an explanatory variable in the transition probability equations, the threshold effect of changing regime is clearly enhanced. And hence the predictability of the price spikes was improved. This means that the model showed a very clear threshold effect, with a low probability of switching for low loads and low temperatures and a high probability for high loads and high temperatures. And temperature showed a clearer threshold effect than load does. This implies that weather-related contracts may help to hedge against the risk in the cost of buying electricity during a summer.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2008

This paper presents a new approach of a evaluation of location marginal prices(LMPs) considering demand response resources in the competitive electricity market. The stabilization of the electric power supply and demand balance has been one of the major important activities in electric power industry. Recently, much attention is paid to the demand-side resources which are responsive to incentives or time-varying prices and existing power system planning and operation activities are incorporated with the so-called demand response resources. In this paper, we first present an analytical method for calculation of LMPs considering demand response resources and then break down the LMPs into three components. In this study, we assume that Korean power system consists of two major regions, one which is the metropolitan and the other is non-metropolitan region. In the case study, we have considered several LMPs cases with different use of locational demand response resource and we can obtain a locational signal to demand response resources. Also, the economics of demand response resources are evaluated, compared with the increase of transmission line capacity and of generation capacity.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.173-179
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• 2006

In order to explain a U-shape pattern of stock returns, Fama and French(1988) suggested the state-space model consisting of I(1) permanent component and AR(1) stationary component. They concluded the autoregression coefficient induced from the state-space model follow the U-shape pattern and the U-shape pattern of stock returns was due to both negative autocorrelation in returns beyond a year and substantial mean-reversion in stock market prices. However, we found negative autocorrelation is induced under the assumption that permanent and stationary noise component are independent in the state-space model. In this paper, we derive the autoregression coefficient based on ARIMA process equivalent to the state-space model without the assumption of independency. Based on the estimated parameters, we investigate the pattern of the time-varying autoregression coefficient and conclude the autoregression coefficient from the state-space model of ARIMA(1,1,1) process does not follow a U-shape pattern, but has always positive sign. We applied this result on the data of 1 month retums for all NYSE stocks for the 1926-85 period from the Center for Research in Security Prices.