• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-to-event

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Regression models generated by gamma random variables with long-term survivors

  • Ortega, Edwin M.M.;Cordeiro, Gauss M.;Hashimoto, Elizabeth M.;Suzuki, Adriano K.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 2017
  • We propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has the Poisson distribution and the time for the event follows the gamma-G family of distributions. The extended family of gamma-G failure-time models with long-term survivors is flexible enough to include many commonly used failure-time distributions as special cases. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation and derive appropriate matrices to assess local influence on the parameters. Further, various simulations are performed for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages. We illustrate the performance of the proposed regression model by means of a data set from the medical area (gastric cancer).

Bus Reconfiguration Strategy Based on Local Minimum Tree Search for the Event Processing of Automated Distribution Substations

  • Ko Yun-Seok
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.5A no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes an expert system that can enhance the accuracy of real-time bus reconfiguration strategy by adopting the local minimum tree search method and that can minimize the spreading effect of the fault by considering the operating condition when a main transformer fault occurs in an automated substation. The local minimum tree search method is used to expand the best-first search method. This method has the advantage that it can improve the solution performance within the limits of the real-time condition. The inference strategy proposed expert system consists of two stages. The first stage determines the switching candidate set by searching possible switching candidates starting from the main transformer or busbar related to the event. The second stage determines the rational real-time bus reconfiguration strategy based on heuristic rules from the obtained switching candidate set. Also, this paper proposes generalized distribution substation modeling using graph theory, and a substation database based on the study results is designed.

PACSR : A Probabilistic ACSR (PACSR : 확률적 ACSR)

  • Seong, Soon-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.720-723
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    • 2005
  • There has been significant progress in the development of timed process algebra for the specification and analysis of real-time systems in recent years. ACSR is a timed process algebra, which supports synchronous timed actions and asynchronous instantaneous events. Timed actions model the usage of shared resources and the passage of time, whereas events allow synchronization between processes. To be able to specify real-time systems more effectively, this paper suggests the notion of probabilities. This paper also illustrates extended PACSR with a typical resource allocation system and its deadlock specification and analysis.

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The Comparative Study on Post-Marketing Surveillance System for Pharmaceuticals (의약품의 시판후 조사제도 비교연구)

  • Kim, In-Beom;Kim, Hong-Jin;Sohn, Uy-Dong
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2006
  • The adverse events which do not appear in the approval process tend to occur more frequently at the early stage of the use. Therefore new drugs, drugs with different active substances or routes of administration, or drugs with explicitly different efficacy added are particularly chosen for re-examination, and go through a study, which is conducted on 600 to 3,000 subjects over 4 to 6 years. Since the re-examination system was implemented in January 1995, 880 drug products have been designated as the subject of re-examination and among them 194 drugs have been completed their re-examination as of until March 2005. Post Marketing Surveillance to insure drug safety should be correlated with re-examination of new drug, re-evaluation of drug, and adverse event monitoring system. And the first labeling change should reflect all information collected for a defined period of time after the marketing authorization is granted. Furthermore centralized management through spontaneous reporting system of adverse event for whole period of time would be the most desirable type of system.

Fracture Behavior for Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic by Immersion (흡수에 따른 탄소섬유 강화수지의 파괴거동)

  • Kim, O. G.;Nam, K. W.;Ahn, B. H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.402-410
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    • 1996
  • Recently carbon fiber reinforced plastic(CFRP) has been used structural materials in corrosive environment such as for water, chemical tank and chemical pipes. However, mechanical properties of such materials may change when CFRP are exposed to corrosive environment for long periods of time. Therefore, it is important to understand the effect of moisture absorption on mechanical properties of the CFRP. In this study, degradation behavior of immersed carbon fiber/epoxy resin composite material was investigated using acoustic emission(AE) technique. Fracture toughness test are performed on the compact tension(CT) test specimens that are pilled by two types of laminates $[0^{\circ}_2$/$90^{\circ}_2]_3s$ and $[0^{\circ}_2$/$90^{\circ}_2]_6s$During the fracture toughness test, AE test was carried out to monitor the damage of CFRP by moisture absorption. In spite of the change of moisture absorption rate, the fracture toughness of CFRP was not change. As immersion time increased, AE event count numbers decreased in low amplitude range of AE for amplitude distribution histogram. The event in low amplitude range was known to be generated by debonding of matrix-fiber interface. Therefore, decrease of AE event count numbers in low amplitude range represents that debonding of matrix-fiber interface which was probably generated by moisture absorption.

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Development of esXML for Energy Information Exchange (에너지 정보 교환을 위한 esXML(energy system eXtensible Markup Language) 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-Sook;Koo, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2009
  • In future digital environment, energy management system will meet the real-time capability to process the emergency events, unexpected blackouts or over-load, and the high speed to provide the consumer service events such as remote meter reading. According to, energy management system needs the simple and independent information exchange model which can transmit various energy event information in real-time. In this paper, we developed an esXML that was divided into two modelings, device modeling and event modeling, based on XML using object-oriented modeling. As a result of experiments, the system was able to exchange information independently and efficiently.

A study of Kem County earthquake (Kern County 지진에 대한 연구)

  • 김준경
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate compatability of seismic source characteristics of the Kern County earthquake to those of Korean Peninsula seismotectonics. The compatability could be used to make Korean type response spectrum from the strong ground motions observed from the assingned earthquake. The July 21, 1952, Kern County, California, earthquake is the largest earthquake to occur in the western U.S. since 1906, and the repeat of this event poses a significant seismic hazard. The Kern County event was a complex thrusting event, with a surface rupture pattern that varied from pure leftlateral strike-slip to pure dip-slip. A time dependent moment tensor inversion was applied to ten observed teleseismic long-period body waves to investigate the source complexity. Since a conventional moment tensor inversion(constant geometry through time) returns a non-double-couple source when the seismic source changes(fault orientation and direction of slip) with time, we are required to use the time dependent moment tensor which allows a first-order mapping of the geometric and temporal complexity. From the moment tensor inversion, a two-point seismic source model with significant overlap for the White Wolf fault, which propagates upward(20 km to 5 km) from SW to NE, fits most of the observed seismic waveforms in the least squares sense. Comparison of P, T and B axes of focal mechanisms and focal depths suggests that seismic source characteristics of the Kern County earthquake is consistant with those of Korean Peninsula Seismotectonics.

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Feasibility Study on the Fault Tree Analysis Approach for the Management of the Faults in Running PCR Analysis (PCR 과정의 오류 관리를 위한 Fault Tree Analysis 적용에 관한 시범적 연구)

  • Lim, Ji-Su;Park, Ae-Ri;Lee, Seung-Ju;Hong, Kwang-Won
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.245-252
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    • 2007
  • FTA (fault tree analysis), an analytical method for system failure management, was employed in the management of faults in running PCR analysis. PCR is executed through several processes, in which the process of PCR machine operation was selected for the analysis by FTA. The reason for choosing the simplest process in the PCR analysis was to adopt it as a first trial to test a feasibility of the FTA approach. First, fault events-top event, intermediate event, basic events-were identified by survey on expert knowledge of PCR. Then those events were correlated deductively to build a fault tree in hierarchical structure. The fault tree was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively, yielding minimal cut sets, structural importance, common cause vulnerability, simulation of probability of occurrence of top event, cut set importance, item importance and sensitivity. The top event was 'errors in the step of PCR machine operation in running PCR analysis'. The major intermediate events were 'failures in instrument' and 'errors in actions in experiment'. The basic events were four events, one event and one event based on human errors, instrument failure and energy source failure, respectively. Those events were combined with Boolean logic gates-AND or OR, constructing a fault tree. In the qualitative evaluation of the tree, the basic events-'errors in preparing the reaction mixture', 'errors in setting temperature and time of PCR machine', 'failure of electrical power during running PCR machine', 'errors in selecting adequate PCR machine'-proved the most critical in the occurrence of the fault of the top event. In the quantitative evaluation, the list of the critical events were not the same as that from the qualitative evaluation. It was because the probability value of PCR machine failure, not on the list above though, increased with used time, and the probability of the events of electricity failure and defective of PCR machine were given zero due to rare likelihood of the events in general. It was concluded that this feasibility study is worth being a means to introduce the novel technique, FTA, to the management of faults in running PCR analysis.

Event Management Process in the Transportation and Delivery System (수배송 시스템의 이벤트 관리 프로세스)

  • 이재호;정재훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.252-255
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    • 2003
  • This article concerns the event management of the transportation and delivery system in the real time environment. Until now mainstream researches in the transportation and delivery area have largely focused how to create optimized vehicle routing schedule fast and stably, although the execution and event management area has a lot of opportunities which could make logistics efficient and especially customers satisfied. This paper suggests to-be model processes how to execute vehicle routing schedule correctly and when events are occurred how to cope with them effectively. To embody such ideas GIS, GPS and Mobile technologies are attached on optimizing scheduler engine, TMS, WMS, ATP and Monitoring system.

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Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

  • Bucknor, Matthew;Grabaskas, David;Brunett, Acacia J.;Grelle, Austin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.360-372
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    • 2017
  • Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.