• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series trend

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Understanding the Impact of Environmental Changes on the Number of Species and Populations of Odonata after Creating a Constructed Wetland (인공습지 조성 후 환경변화가 잠자리목의 종수 및 개체수에 미치는 영향 파악)

  • Lee, Soo-Dong;Bae, Soo-Hyoung;Lee, Gwang-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-529
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    • 2020
  • Constructed wetlands undergo biological and physical changes such as an increase in the proportion of arid plants due to the natural succession process after formation. It can adversely affect not only the purification function but also the habitat of species. As such, this study aims to identify environmental factors affecting biodiversity and propose management plans based on the monitoring results of physical environmental changes and the emergence of species in seven constructed wetlands selected based on the water depth and surrounding conditions among the lands purchased by the Nakdong River basin. We examined the environmental conditions and emergence of the Odonata, which is a wetland-dependent species, to predict the trend of changes in biodiversity and abundance. The results showed that the open water area decreased as the emergent plants spread to the deep water in 2015 compared to 2012 when they were initially restored to a depth of 0.2 to 1 m. While a total of 54 dragonfly species were observed, the habitat diversity, such as vegetation, water surface, and grassland, remained similar to the initial formation of the wetlands despite the expansion of the emergent plants. On the other hand, the number of Agrionidae species, which prefer areas with fewer aquatic plants, decreased between 2012 and 2015 due to the diminished water surface. The p-values of the differences in the number of species and population between wetlands by year were 2.568e-09 and 1.162e-08, respectively, indicating the statistically significant differences. The decrease in open water surface was found to have the greatest effect on the biodiversity and habitat density of dragonflies. The time-series survey of constructed wetlands confirmed that the spread of Phragmites communis, P. japonica, Typha orientalis, etc., caused a decrease in species diversity. It suggests that environmental management to maintain the open water surface area is necessary.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

A Comparison of the Designation Characteristics of Korean Scenic Sites Policies and National Park System in the United States (국내 명승 정책과 미국 국립공원 시스템의 지정 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Won-Ho;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Janet, R. Balsom
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2020
  • This study examined the definition and major values, the designated procedures and types, and the designation trend in Korean scenic sites and national parks in the United States. Based on this, the analysis of the characteristics of the designation of the two natural heritages. The results are as follows; First, Scenic Sites has characteristics of complex heritage that includes academic, historical, and humanities values on the basis of landscape. As a natural heritage based on public nature, the U.S. National Park aims to contribute to the people's natural heritage and satisfy both ecological and historical values through the protection of the landscape. Second, the designation of a scenic sites are decided through deliberation by the Cultural Heritage Committee after the request of the owner, manager, or local government or by the authority of the head of the Cultural Heritage Administration. The designated survey is divided into basic resource surveys and resource surveys by type. Since the initial designation of the Sogeumgang Mountain in Cheonghakdong, Myeongju in 1970, the number of designated scenic sites was low until the 2000s, but the number of designated scenic sites has increased rapidly since 2006 due to the policy to promote the scenic site, and the proportion of natural and historical and cultural scenic sites has been balanced. The designation of the U.S. national park is decided by the Congress or the president, and the National Park Service makes a series of decisions on whether to conduct a special resource study of provisional resources through a preliminary inspection survey, whether to satisfy the criteria for designation of national parks based on the results of special resource research, and to prioritize them. The U.S. National Parks have been expanded not only by Congress but also by the president's empowerment to designate them as national monuments. With the integrated operation of the National Park Service, the number of designated cases increased as the national park included the heritage sites under the control of various ministries. In addition, a number of historical areas were designated by the enactment of the Historical Site Act, and recreational areas were designated to provide leisure space and classified and managed in a total of 18 units. Third, the comparison of the designation characteristics of the two heritage properties confirmed that the designation of natural heritage with complex value, the classification of types according to complementary designation system and resource characteristics, the establishment of the competent ministry and the balancing of the heritage according to the designation policy. The two heritages had the characteristics of complex natural heritages that met ecological, historical and academic values at the same time based on landscape and public nature. In addition, both countries have identified a system for deliberating the designation of heritage through a basic resource survey and an in-depth designation survey, and classified each type according to the characteristics of the resource. In addition, the policies for promoting scenic sites in Korea and the integrated operation of the National Park Service in the U.S. influenced the designated aspects of the two heritage sites, balancing natural heritage with historical and cultural heritage. Fourth, the resource types and conservation management methods of Scenic site and National Park were largely related. The natural areas of the U.S. National Park include types of natural monuments in Korea as major resources, and have characteristics similar to natural scenic sites. In addition, historical resources were similar to the criteria for designation of historical and cultural scenic sites in terms of landscape, and the aspects of war and celebrity-related relics were related to the types of historic sites. In terms of conservation management, the natural area of the U.S. national park has a way of keeping the original ecosystem intact, but the Korean natural heritage protection system is likely to be useful for focusing on the resource of viscosity. Meanwhile, historical resources include historical sites and historical and cultural scenic sites in the traditional era, but historical relics in the U.S. National Parks have set a time limit to modern times for war history and celebrity-related relics, and the active provision of entertainment programs based on existing resources was derived as a difference.

Trend and Forecast of the Medical Care Utilization Rate, the Medical Expense per Case and the Treatment Days per Cage in Medical Insurance Program for Employees by ARIMA Model (ARIMA모델에 의한 피용자(被傭者) 의료보험(醫療保險) 수진율(受診率), 건당진료비(件當診療費) 및 건당진료일수(件當診療日數)의 추이(推移)와 예측(豫測))

  • Jang, Kyu-Pyo;Kam, Sin;Park, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.24 no.3 s.35
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    • pp.441-458
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    • 1991
  • The objective of this study was to provide basic reference data for stabilization scheme of medical insurance benefits through forecasting of the medical care utilization rate, the medical expence per case, and the treatment days per case in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers and for industrial workers. For the achievement of above objective, this study was carried out by Box-Jenkins time series analysis (ARIMA Model), using monthly statistical data from Jan. 1979 to Dec. 1989, of medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers and for industrial workers. The results are as follows ; ARIMA model of the medical care utilization rate in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers was ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and it for outpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 1, 1), while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 0, 1). ARIMA model of the medical expense per case in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers and for outpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers were ARIMA (1, 1, 0), while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 0, 1). ARIMA model of the treatment days per case of both medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers and industrial workers were ARIMA (1, 1, 1). Forecasting value of the medical care utilzation rate for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers was 0.0061 at dec. 1989, 0.0066 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 0.280 at dec. 1989, 0.294 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 0.0052 at dec. 1989, 0.0056 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 0.203 at dec. 1989, 0.215 at 1994. Forecasting value of the medical expense per case for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers was 332,751 at dec. 1989, 354,511 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 11,925 at dec. 1989, 12,904 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 281,835 at dec. 1989, 293,973 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 11,599 at dec. 1989, 11,585 at 1994. Forecasting value of the treatment days per case for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees & private school teachers was 13.79 at dec. 1989,13.85 at an. 1994 and in for outpatient was 5.03 at dec. 1989, 5.00 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 12.23 at dec. 1989, 12.85 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 4.61 at dec. 1989, 4.60 at 1994.

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