• 제목/요약/키워드: Time-series Model

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Analytic Linearization of Symbolic Nonlinear Equations (기호 비선형 방정식의 해석적 선형화)

  • Song, Sung-Jae;Moon, Hong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 1995
  • The first-order Taylor series expansion can be evaluated analytically from the formulated symbolic nonlinear dynamic equations. A closed-form linear dynamic euation is derived about a nominal trajectory. The state space representation of the linearized dynamics can be derived easily from the closed-form linear dynamic equations. But manual symbolic expansion of dynamic equations and linearization is tedious, time-consuming and error-prone. So it is desirable to manipulate the procedures using a computer. In this paper, the analytic linearization is performed using the symbolic language MATHEMATICA. Two examples are given to illustrate the approach anbd to compare nonlinear model with linear model.

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Study on Optimization of Fatigue Damage Calculation Process Using Spectrum (스펙트럼을 이용한 피로손상도 계산과정 최적화 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Woo;Lee, Seung Jae;Choi, Sol Mi
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2018
  • Offshore structures are exposed to low- and high-frequency responses due to environmental loads, and fatigue damage models are used to calculate the fatigue damage from these. In this study, we tried to optimize the main parameters used in fatigue damage calculation to derive a new fatigue damage model. A total of 162 bi-modal spectra using the elliptic equation were defined to describe the response of offshore structures. To calculate the fatigue damage from the spectra, time series were generated from the spectra using the inverse Fourier transform, and the rain-flow counting method was applied. The considered optimization variables were the size of the frequency increments, ratio of the time increment, and number of repetitions of the time series. In order to obtain optimized values, the fatigue damage was calculated using the parameter values proposed in previous work, and the fatigue damage was calculated by increasing or decreasing the proposed values. The results were compared, and the error rate was checked. Based on the test results, new values were found for the size of the frequency increment and number of time series iterations. As a validation, the fatigue damage of an actual tension spectrum found using the new proposed values and fatigue damage found using the previously proposed method were compared. In conclusion, we propose a new optimized calculation process that is faster and more accurate than the existed method.

A Study on Intermittent Demand Forecasting of Patriot Spare Parts Using Data Mining (데이터 마이닝을 이용한 패트리어트 수리부속의 간헐적 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheonkyu;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.234-241
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    • 2021
  • By recognizing the importance of demand forecasting, the military is conducting many studies to improve the prediction accuracy for repair parts. Demand forecasting for repair parts is becoming a very important factor in budgeting and equipment availability. On the other hand, the demand for intermittent repair parts that have not constant sizes and intervals with the time series model currently used in the military is difficult to predict. This paper proposes a method to improve the prediction accuracy for intermittent repair parts of the Patriot. The authors collected intermittent repair parts data by classifying the demand types of 701 repair parts from 2013 to 2019. The temperature and operating time identified as external factors that can affect the failure were selected as input variables. The prediction accuracy was measured using both time series models and data mining models. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the data mining models was higher than that of the time series models, and the multilayer perceptron model showed the best performance.

Tactile Sensor-based Object Recognition Method Robust to Gripping Conditions Using Fast Fourier Convolution Algorithm (고속 푸리에 합성곱을 이용한 파지 조건에 강인한 촉각센서 기반 물체 인식 방법)

  • Huh, Hyunsuk;Kim, Jeong-Jung;Koh, Doo-Yoel;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Lee, Seungchul
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.365-372
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    • 2022
  • The accurate object recognition is important for the precise and accurate manipulation. To enhance the recognition performance, we can use various types of sensors. In general, acquired data from sensors have a high sampling rate. So, in the past, the RNN-based model is commonly used to handle and analyze the time-series sensor data. However, the RNN-based model has limitations of excessive parameters. CNN-based model also can be used to analyze time-series input data. However, CNN-based model also has limitations of the small receptive field in early layers. For this reason, when we use a CNN-based model, model architecture should be deeper and heavier to extract useful global features. Thus, traditional methods like RN N -based and CN N -based model needs huge amount of learning parameters. Recently studied result shows that Fast Fourier Convolution (FFC) can overcome the limitations of traditional methods. This operator can extract global features from the first hidden layer, so it can be effectively used for feature extracting of sensor data that have a high sampling rate. In this paper, we propose the algorithm to recognize objects using tactile sensor data and the FFC model. The data was acquired from 11 types of objects to verify our posed model. We collected pressure, current, position data when the gripper grasps the objects by random force. As a result, the accuracy is enhanced from 84.66% to 91.43% when we use the proposed FFC-based model instead of the traditional model.

Influence of Snow Accumulation and Snowmelt Using NWS-PC Model in Rainfall-runoff Simulation (NWS-PC 모형을 이용한 강우-유출 모의에서 적설 및 융설 영향)

  • Kang, Shin Uk;Rieu, Seung Yup
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1B
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • The impact of snow accumulation and snowmelt in rainfall-runoff modelling was analyzed for the Soyanggang dam basin by comparing the measured and simulated discharges simulated by the NWS-PC model. Sugawara's conceptual model was used to simulate the snow accumulation and snowmelt phenomena and NWS-PC model was employed to simulate rainfall-runoff. Parameters in model calibration were estimated by the Multi-step Automated Calibration Scheme and optimized using SCE-UA algorithm in each step. The results of the model calibration and verification show that the model considering snowmelt process is better than the one without consideration of snowmelt under the performance criteria such as RMSE, PBIAS, NSE, and PME. The measured discharge time series has over 60 days of persistence. Correlograms for each simulation showed that the simulated discharge with snowmelt model reproduce the persistence closely to the measured discharge's while the one without snow accumulation and snowmelt model reproduce only 20 days of persistence. The study result indicates that the inclusion of snow accumulation and snowmelt model is important for the accurate simulation of rainfall-runoff phenomena in the Soyanggang dam basin.

A new approach to working coil design for a high frequency full bridge series resonant inverter fitted contactless induction heater

  • Dhar, Sujit;Dutta, Biswajit;Ghoshroy, Debasmita;Roy, Debabrata;Sadhu, Pradip Kumar;Ganguly, Ankur;Sanyal, Amar Nath;Das, Soumya
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.283-291
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    • 2017
  • High frequency full bridge series resonant inverters have become increasingly popular among power supply designers. One of the most important parameter for a High Frequency Full Bridge Series Resonant Inverter is optimal coil design. The optimal coil designing procedure is not a easy task. This paper deals with the New Approach to Optimal Design Procedure for a Real-time High Frequency Full Bridge Series Resonant Inverter in Induction Heating Equipment devices. A new design to experimental modelling of the physical properties and a practical power input simulation process for the non-sinusoidal input waveform is accepted. The design sensitivity analysis with Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for the optimal design process. The proposed technique is applied to an Induction Heating Equipment devices model and the result is verified by real-time experiment. The main advantages of this design technique is to achieve more accurate temperature control with a huge amount of power saving.

Solar radiation forecasting using boosting decision tree and recurrent neural networks

  • Hyojeoung, Kim;Sujin, Park;Sahm, Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.709-719
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    • 2022
  • Recently, as the importance of environmental protection has emerged, interest in new and renewable energy is also increasing worldwide. In particular, the solar energy sector accounts for the highest production rate among new and renewable energy in Korea due to its infinite resources, easy installation and maintenance, and eco-friendly characteristics such as low noise emission levels and less pollutants during power generation. However, although climate prediction is essential since solar power is affected by weather and climate change, solar radiation, which is closely related to solar power, is not currently forecasted by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Solar radiation prediction can be the basis for establishing a reasonable new and renewable energy operation plan, and it is very important because it can be used not only in solar power but also in other fields such as power consumption prediction. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of improving the accuracy of solar radiation. Solar radiation was predicted by a total of three weather variables, temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, and solar radiation outside the atmosphere, and the results were compared using various models. The CatBoost model was best obtained by fitting and comparing the Boosting series (XGB, CatBoost) and RNN series (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU) models. In addition, the results were further improved through Time series cross-validation.

The Harmonics and Reactive Power Compensation with Series Active Power filter in 3-phase 4-wire System (3상 4선식 전력시스템에서 직렬형 능동필터에 의한 고조파전류와 무효전력 보상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Sun;Kim, Young-Jo;Kim, Young-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.07b
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    • pp.1072-1074
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, a new control strategy of a series active power filter using direct compensating voltage extraction method is proposed. This control algorithm compensates harmonics, reactive power and neutral line currents which are generated by balanced or unbalanced nonlinear loads. The advantage of this method is that the compensating voltage of the series active power filter can be extracted without phase transformation. Therefore, calculation time is shorten and the control method is simple compared with conventional method as the p-q theory In addition, this control strategy was applied for the series active power filter in 3-phase 4-wire system which is widely employed in distributing electric energy to several office building and manufacturing plants. Some results obtained from the experimental model using the proposed method are presented to demonstrate and confirm its validity.

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A Speed Control of A Series DC Motor Using Adaptive Fuzzy Sliding-Mode Method (적응 퍼지 슬라이딩 모드 기법을 이용한 Series DC 모터의 속도제어)

  • Kim, Do-Woo;Yang, Hai-Won;Jung, Gi-Chul;Lee, Hyo-Sup
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.07d
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    • pp.2292-2295
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, The control problem for a series DC motor is considered to adaptive fuzzy sliding-mode control scheme. Based on a nonlinear mathematical model of a series connected DC motor, instead of the combination of a nonlinear transformation and state feedback(feedback linearization) reduces the nonlinear control design. To demonstrate its effectiveness, an experimental study of this controller is presented. Two sets of fuzzy rule bases are utilized to represent the equivalent control input with unknown system functions of the main target. The membership functions of the THEN-part, which is used to construct a suitable equivalent control of SMC, are changed according to the adaptive law. With such a design scheme, we not only maintain the distribution of membership functions over state space but also reduce computing time considerably.

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A Study on Methodology for Improving Demand Forecasting Models in the Designated Driver Service Market (대리운전 시장의 지역별 수요 예측 모형의 성능 향상을 위한 방법론 연구)

  • Min-Seop Kim;Ki-Kun Park;Jae-Hyeon Heo;Jae-Eun Kwon;Hye-Rim Bae
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, the Designated Driver Services employ dynamic pricing, which adapts in real-time based on nearby driver availability, service user volume, and current weather conditions during the user's request. The uncertain volatility is the main cause of price increases, leading to customer attrition and service refusal from driver. To make a good Designated Driver Services, development of a demand forecasting model is required. In this study, we propose developing a demand forecasting model using data from the Designated Driver Service by considering normal and peak periods, such as rush hour and rush day, as prior knowledge to enhance the model performance. We propose a new methodology called Time-Series with Conditional Probability(TSCP), which combines conditional probability and time-series models to enhance performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted with real Designated Driver Service data, and the result demonstrated that our method outperforms the existing time-series models such as SARIMA, Prophet. Therefore, our study can be considered for decision-making to facilitate proactive response in Designated Driver Services.