• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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Rapid Evaluation Method for OPC Fineness by Hydrometer and Influence of OPC Fineness on Properties of Mortar (액체밀도계법에 의한 OPC 분말도의 신속추정 및 OPC 분말도가 모르타르의 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Cheon-Goo;Kim, Young-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.429-437
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    • 2018
  • The aim of the research is to analyze a feasibility of rapid evaluation method for cement fineness by the relation analysis between density measurement using hydrometer and fineness of ordinary Portland cement. Additionally, based on the commercially available cement product, relation between a series of fundamental properties of cement mortar and fineness of cement powder was analyzed. As an experimental result, the actually measured fineness value of cement powder showed a good correlation with the fineness value obtained by hydrometer while there was poor correlation with the fineness value on specification. Especially, the density measurement in three minutes showed the closest relation with cement powder fineness, thus rapid quality evaluation of cement powder can be possible by using the regression equation obtained from the three minutes density measurement. Additionally, there was a high relation between cement powder fineness with a fundamental properties of the cement mortar such as fluidity, air content, setting time, and strength development.

Estimation of Potential Supply of Offset from Household Electric Appliances (가정용 전자기기의 잠재 상쇄 공급량 추정)

  • Jin, Hyun Joung;Kim, Jeong In;You, Eun Young;Park, Seo Hwa
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.463-488
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    • 2015
  • A more detailed design of offset system is needed according to the emission trading system started in 2015. This study aims to estimate the supply of potential offset that can be secured by expanding high-efficiency household electric appliances. The target commodities for analysis are three different householding electric appliances: TV, washing machine, electric fan, refrigerator and air conditioner. By using the ARDL model, we estimated the coefficients of diffusion of these high-efficiency appliances from 2016 to 2022. Then, the potential supply of offset was drawn by calculating the amount of electricity saving by efficiency improvement and by applying the rates of carbon exchange. Supposing that the electricity savings rates of high-efficiency appliances are each 10% and 20%, the accumulated carbon decrement in 2022 was respectively $361,899CO_2t$ and $723,797CO_2t$. The appliance that showed the biggest carbon decrement was air conditioner, and the second biggest was refrigerator and the next was TV, followed by washing machine, electric fan.

A review of artificial intelligence based demand forecasting techniques (인공지능 기반 수요예측 기법의 리뷰)

  • Jeong, Hyerin;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.795-835
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    • 2019
  • Big data has been generated in various fields. Many companies have now tried to make profits by building a system capable of analyzing big data based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Integrating AI technology has made analyzing and utilizing vast amounts of data increasingly valuable. In particular, demand forecasting with maximum accuracy is critical to government and business management in various fields such as finance, procurement, production and marketing. In this case, it is important to apply an appropriate model that considers the demand pattern for each field. It is possible to analyze complex patterns of real data that can also be enlarged by a traditional time series model or regression model. However, choosing the right model among the various models is difficult without prior knowledge. Many studies based on AI techniques such as machine learning and deep learning have been proven to overcome these problems. In addition, demand forecasting through the analysis of stereotyped data and unstructured data of images or texts has also shown high accuracy. This paper introduces important areas where demand forecasts are relatively active as well as introduces machine learning and deep learning techniques that consider the characteristics of each field.

A Reservoir Operation Plan Coupled with Storage Forecasting Models in Existing Agricultural Reservoir (농업용 저수지에서 저수량 예측 모형과 연계한 저수지 운영 개선 방안의 모색)

  • Ahn, Tae-Jin;Lee, Jae-Young;Lee, Jae-Young;Yi, Jae-Eung;Yoon, Yang-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a reservoir operation plan coupled with storage forecasting model to maintain a target storage and a critical storage. The observed storage data from 1990 to 2001 in the Geum-Gang agricultural reservoir in Korea have been applied to the low flow frequency analysis, which yields storage for each return period. Two year return period drought storage is then designated as the target storage and ten year return period drought storage as the critical storage. Storage in reservoir should be forecasted to perform reasonable reservoir operation. The predicted storage can be effectively utilized to establish a reservoir operation plan. In this study the autoregressive error (ARE) model and the ARIMA model are adopted to predict storage of reservoir. The ARIMA model poorly generated reservoir storage in series because only observed storage data were used, but the autoregressive error model made to enhance the reliability of the forecasted storage by applying the explanation variables to the model. Since storages of agricultural reservoir with respect to time have been affected by irrigation area, high or mean temperature, precipitation, previous storage and wind velocity, the autoregressive error model has been adopted to analyze the relationship between storage at a period and affecting factors for storage at the period. Since the equation for predicting storage at a period by the autoregressive error model is similar to the continuity equation, the predicting storage equation may be practical. The results from compared the actual storage in 2002 and the predicted storage in the Geum-Gang reservoir show that forecasted storage by the autoregressive error model is reasonable.

Numerical Analysis on Liquefaction Countermeasure of Seabed under Submerged Breakwater using Concrete Mat Cover (for Regular Waves) (콘크리트매트 피복을 이용한 잠제하 해저지반에서의 액상화 대책공법에 관한 수치해석(규칙파 조건))

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Ryu, Heung-Won;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Do-Sam;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.361-374
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    • 2016
  • When the seabed around and under gravity structures such as submerged breakwater is exposed to a large wave action long period, the excess pore pressure is generated significantly due to pore volume change associated with rearrangement soil grains. This effect leads a seabed liquefaction around and under structures as a result from decrease in the effective stress, and the possibility of structure failure is increased eventually. These facts shown above have been investigated in the previous studies related to regular and irregular waves. This study suggested a concrete mat for preventing the seabed liquefaction near the submerged breakwater. The concrete mat was mainly used as a countermeasure for scouring protection in riverbed. According to installation of the concrete mattress, the time and spatial series of the deformation of submerged breakwater, the pore water pressure, and the pore water pressure ratio in the seabed were investigated. Their results were also compared with those of the seabed unprotected with the concrete mat. The results presented were confirmed that the liquefaction potential of seabed under the concrete mattress is significantly reduced under regular wave field.

An Action-Generation Method of Virtual Characters using Programming by Demonstration (Programming by Demonstration을 이용한 가상 캐릭터의 행동 생성 기법)

  • Sung, Yun-Sick;Cho, Kyung-Eun;Um, Ky-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2011
  • The substantial effort is required to make a virtual character smoothly move like a human being in the virtual environment. Since a virtual character acts on the basis of the actions, it is the most critical to define actions for smooth flow of action. It has been actively studied the programming by demonstration which defines series of actions to be performed by a virtual character based on the actions operated by a person. However, such approaches can't easily draw many sequential actions because they create sequential actions in the same length all the time or restrict the actions used to create such actions. For smooth flow of action, it is required to derive sequential actions as much as possible from the actions of a virtual character and to select the representative set of actions. Accordingly, it is necessary to study how to create sequential actions as reducing diverse limits. This study suggests the approach to select sequential actions suitable for a virtual character by collecting the actions of a character manipulated by a person and deriving a set of actions to be performed by a virtual character. The experiment describes the process to create the actions by applying the approach suggested in this study to the driving game. In accordance with the analysis results, it was found that a set of actions performed by a person was generated without being restricted by a length or a part to divide. Finally, we confirmed that the suggested method selects the best sequential actions, appropriate to virtual character, among more generated actions.

VARIABLE STARS IN THE REGION OF CYG OB3 ASSOCIATION CENTERED ON THE OPEN CLUSTER NGC 6871 I: δ SCUTI TYPE STARS (산개성단 NGC 6871을 중심으로 한 Cyg OB3 성협 영역의 변광성 I: δ Scuti 형 변광성)

  • Jeon, Young-Beom;Lee, Uiryeol;Park, Yoon-Ho;Kim, Donghyeon;Jang, Hyeeun;Cho, Sungyoon
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.399-409
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    • 2012
  • As a part of the short-period variability survey (SPVS) at Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory, we obtained time-series BV CCD images in the region of Cyg OB3 association centered on the open cluster NGC 6871. The observations were performed for 18 nights from September 5, 2008 to September 1, 2009. We found 15 short-period variable stars in the region. They are ${\delta}$ Scuti type stars belonging to the local spiral arm, Orion spur. Among them, only two stars were previously known, and the rest are newly discovered ones. In this paper, we have performed a multiple-frequency analysis to determine frequencies of the 15 ${\delta}$ Scuti type stars, using the discrete Fourier transform and linear least-square fitting methods. One of the newly discovered variable stars is a double-mode ${\delta}$ Scuti type star with the fundamental and the first overtone modes, and two are high amplitude ${\delta}$ Scuti stars.

A Study on Designing Method of VoIP QoS Management Framework Model under NGN Infrastructure Environment (NGN 기반환경 에서의 VoIP QoS 관리체계 모델 설계)

  • Noh, Si-Choon;Bang, Kee-Chun
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2011
  • QoS(Quality of Service) is defined as "The collective effect of service performance which determines the degree of satisfaction of a user of the service" by ITU-T Rec. E.800. While the use of VoIP(Voice Over Internet Protocol) has been widely implemented, persistent problems with QoS are a very important sue which needs to be solved. This research is finding the assignment of VoIP QoS to deduct how to manage the control system and presenting the QoS control process and framework under NGN(Next Generation Network) environment. The trial framework is the modeling of the QoS measurement metrics, instrument, equipment, method of measurement, the series of cycle & the methodology about analysis of the result of measurement. This research underlines that the vulnerability of the VoIP protocol in relation to its QoS can be guaranteed when the product quality and management are controlled and measured systematically. Especially it's very important time to maintain the research about VoIP QoS measurement and control because the big conversion of new network technology paradigm is now spreading. In addition, when the proposed method is applied, it can reduce an overall delay and can contribute to improved service quality, in relation to signal, voice processing, filtering more effectively.

A Study of Correlations between Air-Temperature of Jeju and SST around Jeju Island (제주도 기온과 주변해역 해수면 온도와의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Jang Seung-Min;Kim Seong-Su;Choi Young-Chan;Kim Su-Gang
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • Correlations between air-temperature variation and SST variation around Jeju Island have been studied with data JRMO($1924{\sim}2004$) and NFRDI($l971{\sim}2000$). Air-temperature has increased about $0.02^{circ}C/year$ for the period of $1924{\sim}2004$ but relatively high 0.035/year for the last 30 years. SST has increased about $0.024^{circ}C/year$ for the period of $1971{\sim}2000$ and relatively high $0.047^{circ}C/year$ in December. According to the analysis of time series of the two kind of variation, the SST and air-temperature are positively correlated. They are generally in phase, and SST anomaly is similar to air-temperature anomaly as well. Consequently, SST variation has high correlation with air-temperature variation around Jeju Island.

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Prediction and Causality Examination of the Environment Service Industry and Distribution Service Industry (환경서비스업과 물류서비스업의 예측 및 인과성 검정)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Choong-Hyo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The world now recognizes environmental disruption as a serious issue when regarding growth-oriented strategies; therefore, environmental preservation issues become pertinent. Consequently, green distribution is continuously emphasized. However, studying the prediction and association of distribution and the environment is insufficient. Most existing studies about green distribution are about its necessity, detailed operation methods, and political suggestions; it is necessary to study the distribution service industry and environmental service industry together, for green distribution. Research design, data, and methodology - ARIMA (auto-regressive moving average model) was used to predict the environmental service and distribution service industries, and the Granger Causality Test based on VAR (vector auto regressive) was used to analyze the causal relationship. This study used 48 quarters of time-series data, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 3rd quarter in 2013, about each business type's production index, and used an unchangeable index. The production index about the business type is classified into the current index and the unchangeable index. The unchangeable index divides the current index into deflators to remove fluctuation. Therefore, it is easy to analyze the actual production index. This study used the unchangeable index. Results - The production index of the distribution service industry and the production index of the environmental service industry consider the autocorrelation coefficient and partial autocorrelation coefficient; therefore, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)4 and ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,1)4 were established as final prediction models, resulting in the gradual improvement in every production index of both types of business. Regarding the distribution service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 114.35, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 123.48. Moreover, regarding the environmental service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 110.95, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 111.67. In a causal relationship analysis, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. Conclusions - This study predicted the distribution service industry and environmental service industry with the ARIMA model, and examined the causal relationship between them through the Granger causality test based on the VAR Model. Prediction reveals the seasonality and gradual increase in the two industries. Moreover, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. This study contributed academically by offering base line data needed in the establishment of a future style of management and policy directions for the two industries through the prediction of the distribution service industry and the environmental service industry, and tested a causal relationship between them, which is insufficient in existing studies. The limitations of this study are that deeper considerations of advanced studies are deficient, and the effect of causality between the two types of industries on the actual industry was not established.